Canada Core CPI m/m February 16 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI (M/M) 0.6 CPI (Y/Y) 4.8 Today's trade plan Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y. We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data. Tradable pairs EURCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 23rd February 2022 01:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u 24th February 2022 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
New Zealand Official Cash Rate February 23 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 1.00 Today's trade plan Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.00%. There are varying predictions; however, there is about a 30% chance of a further hike to 1.25%. I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.25% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.75% In either scenario, I would expect to see an unprecedented move on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. I would prefer a no hike trade. Tradable pairs AUDNZD EURNZD GBPNZD NZDJPY NZDUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 28/02/2022 I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 01st March 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 02nd March 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 04th March 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
Australia Cash Rate March 1 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. Historic deviations and their outcome March 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets. Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Statement 0.10 Today's trade plan I will trade from a 0.15% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time. Tradable pairs AUDUSD EURAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Canada Overnight Rate March 2 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Historic deviations and their outcome March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move. See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 0.5 Today's trade plan There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to hike rates at 0.50% Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains at 0.25% or a buy if they increase to 0.75% Tradable pairs CADJPY EURCAD GBPCAD USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Non-Farm Employment Change March 4 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 378,000 US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.80 Today's trade plan I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k. I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M I will ignore all other lines. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 7th March 2022 I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 10th March 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ 11th March 2022 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ
United States Core CPI m/m March 10 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.4 CPI (M/M) 0.8 CPI (Y/Y) 7.9 Today's trade plan Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell. I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines! CPI - Core (M?M) CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2% Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Canada Employment Change March 11 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy. Historic deviations and their outcome April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA I will use forecasts of: Employment Change 127.5 Unemployment Rate 6.2 Today's trade plan It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered. If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction. I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade. Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine. Tradable pairs USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 14th March 2022 I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 16th March 2022 12:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ 17th March 2022 00:30 GMT Australian Employment Change See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ 17th March 2022 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ 17th March 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Canada Core CPI m/m March 16 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI (M/M) 0.9 CPI (Y/Y) 5.5 Today's trade plan Today, I will need a 0.2% deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y. We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data. Tradable pairs EURCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Australia Employment Change March 17 2022 What does the data mean to the market? There are two main lines of data on this release. Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs. Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs. Historic deviations and their outcome May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1 February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Employment Change 37.0 Unemployment Rate 0.4 Today's trade plan The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates). If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs. If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way. Tradable pairs EURAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Turkish Rate Decision March 17 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate. With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after. Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Benchmark Rate 14.00 Today's trade plan Today there is no change expected. Therefore If they hike to 15%, I'll take a buy, If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell. If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out. Tradable pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate March 17 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP. See the report history here : https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 Historic deviations and their outcome I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Statement 0.75 Today's trade plan Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 0.75% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction 43 out of 46 economists predict a hike to 0.75% so there is a small amount of doubt. Tradable pairs GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 23rd March 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5 23rd March 2022 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw 24th March 2022 09:00 GMT Norweigen Rate Decision See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 24th March 2022 13:08 GMT South African Interest Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 24th March 2022 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
United Kingdom Core CPI y/y March 23 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it. Historic deviations and their outcome February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: CPI (Y/Y) 6.00 Today's trade plan If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or CPI Y/Y line. With no conflicts on any other line. Tradable pairs GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
South Africa ZAR IR March 24 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa. We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario. March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09 See charts here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x Historic deviations and their outcome January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...IwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 4.25 Today's trade plan Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.25%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.50% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see no change and the rate remains at 4.00%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR. We should bank some nice pips if this hit. Tradable pairs USDZAR Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
I'll be looking closely at the following releases in the week ahead. 01st April 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz 01st April 2022 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49SVNNJTIwTWFudWZhY3R1cmluZyUyMFBNSQ
United States Non-Farm Employment Change April 1 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 480,000 US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5 Today's trade plan I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k. I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M I will ignore all other lines. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
