Australia Employment Change May 19 2022 What does the data mean to the market? There are two main lines of data on this release. Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs. Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs. Historic deviations and their outcome May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1 February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Employment Change 30 Unemployment Rate 3.9 Today's trade plan The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates). If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs. If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way. Tradable pairs AUDUSD EURAUD GBPAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 19 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa. We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario. March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09 See charts here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x Historic deviations and their outcome January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...IwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 4.75 Today's trade plan Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.75%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 5.00% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see an increase to 4.50.%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR. We should bank some nice pips if this hit. Tradable pairs USDZAR ZARJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 23rd May 2022 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 25th May 2022 03:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u 26th May 2022 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...FI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwQm9ycm93aW5nJTIwUmF0ZQ
New Zealand Official Cash Rate May 25 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 2.00 Today's trade plan Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 2.00%. I'll take a trade if we see a deviation of 0.25% either way from the forecast Tradable pairs EURNZD NZDUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 30th May 2022 In the week ahead. I'll be looking closely at the following releases 01st June 2022 02:30 GMT Australian GDP q/q See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49R0RQJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5 01st June 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
