James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today! The first week of the month over, one big win under the belt.



    Happy Friday, and enjoy your weekend!


    James

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50023;t=2021-5-7 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S2

    See the video at :
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Last week ended on a massive high. I set up for five trades, none of which triggered until Friday's employment data. I originally scheduled to trade Canadian employment data, as this is hot. This time it came out with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm payrolls data. I decided Canadian data risked being overshadowed by the US data, so I decided to put my money on the US data instead. What a result, we saw a massive shock to the market from NFP, with the US losing 730k more jobs than expected. Price action was fantastic, and I ended my week with a load more pips banked.

    See the after trade video

    Look at the price action on the charts here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNS0wNyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ.

    A great start to the month, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite. If the markets give us just one surprises, it's all I need to keep my income coming solely from Forex. A good reminder to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

    12/05/2021 13:30:00 USA's Core CPI m/m
    12/05/2021 15:30:00 USA's Crude Oil Inventories
    13/05/2021 20:00:00 Mexian's interest Rate

    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

    Please feel free to ask questions.
    Good luck this week.
    James Thatcher
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Core CPI m/m May 12 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38254;t=2021-4-13 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

    March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.
    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

    February 10 2021 Check out last months 0.2 deviation; bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today!
    We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute with continuation two or three minutes after the initial move.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 2.3
    CPI (M/M) 0.2
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.6



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I want a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade.

    So, an actual figure of 0.1% to Sells on USD pairs or 0.5% to Buy USD pairs.

    I will look to confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!

    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)

    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


    Tradable pairs

    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories May 12 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=49925;t=2021-5-5 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1


    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2800
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000

    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2800 (RT)
    2) API Actual Crude = -2500
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0600 ( RT)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Mexico MEX interest Rate May 13 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPU0x

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...DE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 4


    Today's trade plan

    I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move.


    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Australia AU WPI (Q/Q) May 19 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

    A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTI5NzE0O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0yNDtyPU0x

    I will use forecasts of:

    WPI (Q/Q) 0.5
    WPI (Y/Y) 1.4

    Today's trade plan

    I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD.

    Tradable pairs

    EURAUD

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories May 19 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

    April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x



    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623
    2) API Actual Crude = +620
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800



    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Australia Employment Change May 20 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE

    January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0xLTIxJTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 20
    Unemployment Rate 5.6



    Today's trade plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 20 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 19 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...DIwLTEtMjElMjAxMzowOjAwLjA7cz1aQVJKUFk7cj1TMQ


    I will use forecasts of:
    Interest Rate Decision 3.5


    Today's trade plan

    If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock. I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.

    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR

    I hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Hungary HUF Interest Rate May 25 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 29 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x

    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 0.6

    Today's trade plan

    Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December.

    Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening.

    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!
    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories May 26 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1200



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1050
    2) API Actual Crude = -439
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change June 3 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    ADP is a private company that analysis the employment data from 23 Million working adults. It's a precursor to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls which comes out the following Friday.

    A higher than expected number (more working adults) is good for the US Economy and would create a buy on USD pair, and vice versa a lower than expected number would create a sell in USD pairs.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 5 2021 Small -58 deviation only created a 5 pip move on USDJPY, this deviation is too small considering the forecast range.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTUlMjAxMjoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU

    March 31 2021 Only -33 deviation created an 8 pip move, not a strong enough deviation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTMxJTIwMTI6MTU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

    March 3 2021 10 pip move from this -60 deviation. The move didn't last long!
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0zLTMlMjAxMzoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU




    I will use forecasts of:

    ADP Employment Change 650



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a 300+- deviation from the forecast today, then we can hope for a sustained move that we may be able to get some pips from. This deviation will cover all forecasts in the range, so it will be a significant surprise, although unlikely to occur.



    Tradable pairs

    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories June 3 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE



    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +1000


    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2533 (BB)

    2) API Actual Crude = -5360

    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1479 (RT)

    4) API Actual Gasoline = +2510


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Weekly Summary!! 07 June 2021

    There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I also skipped USA ISM Manufacturing PMI. I've been monitoring this report closely and was considering trading it. Still, I don't have the confidence yet, so I will continue to monitor the market's reactions for a bit longer. No deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories or Non-Farm Payrolls. A pretty dull start to the month, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.

    This week there are just two trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

    09/06/2021 15:00:00 Canadian Overnight Rate
    See the history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision

    10/06/2021 13:30:00 USA Core CPI m/m
    See the history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

    Please feel free to ask questions.
    Good luck this week.
    James Thatcher
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories June 9 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

    May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2036 (RT)
    2) API Actual Crude = -2108
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0698 ( RT)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986



    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Core CPI m/m June 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

    I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

    The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTEwJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.5
    CPI (M/M) 0.5
    CPI (Y/Y) 4.7



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.



    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to sell USDJPY or 0.7% to buy USDJPY.

    I'm only looking to trade USDJPY as there's an ECB press conference at the same time. I wouldn't want to trade EURUSD for that fact today.



    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!



    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)

    CPI - (Y/Y

    )

    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


    Tradable pairs

    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I was hopeful for US CPI, but it didn't come near my trigger, and the reaction was volatile and unsafe to trade. We didn't see a deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories either. A pretty dull month so far, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.
    This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

    15/06/2021 13:30 US Core Retail Sales m/m
    See the history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core Retail Sales (MoM)

    16/06/2021 13:30 Canadian Core CPI m/m
    See the history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

    16/06/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
    See the history here.
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    17/06/2021 02:30 Australian Employment Change
    See the history here.
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=AU;nn=Employment Change


    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
    Please feel free to ask questions.
    Good luck this week.
    James Thatcher
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Canada Core CPI m/m June 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPU0x

    March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0zLTE3JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA

    February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
    CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
    CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
    CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4



    Today's trade plan

    Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.



    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    Canada Core CPI m/m June 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPU0x

    March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0zLTE3JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA

    February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
    CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
    CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
    CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4



    Today's trade plan

    Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.



    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    57
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories June 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict from gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

    June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 5000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent


    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -



    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2500 (BB)

    2) API Actual Crude = -8500

    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614 (RT)

    4) API Actual Gasoline = +2900




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
    #40 JamesThatcher, Jun 16, 2021 at 7:01 AM
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2021 at 10:03 AM

Share This Page