James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia Employment Change June 17 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTIwJTIwMTozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSQVVEO3I9TTE

    March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 30
    Unemployment Rate 5.5



    Today's trade plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable pairs

    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkey Turkish Rate Decision June 17 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19



    Today's trade plan

    25 economists all forecasts today for the rate to stay at 19%

    Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

    Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australian unemployment deviated strongly, but unfortunately, the reaction was poor with a hard spike and retrace, which didn't continue. I think there are two main reasons why this happened. Firstly the RBA Governor Lowe was very dovish in his speech the hour before the release, making the positive deviation less critical to the market. Second that it wasn't a good day to have traded due to a big move off of FOMC hours earlier. If those two things hadn't taken place and it was a typical day, we would have seen a good movement off the data as it was substantial data. Losses will happen; there was no real damage to my capital, and for me and overall, the year is still in profitable one. Now is an important time to choose my trades wisely. Don't let the losses lead to taking unnecessary risks to recover. I take each trade on its merit; I'll forget this loss now and move on to maintaining my risk-averse approach.

     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Weekly Summary!! 21 June 2021

    Last week I set up for four trades with no deviations on three of those. I triggered on Australian employment data, but other factors overshadowed this, and the outcome wasn't as expected. Check out my previous post for a full explanation. Still, I'll draw a line and move on. Remember to take each trade on its own merit. When a trade doesn't work out, don't let it rule your head. This week we've got some exciting reports coming out.

    This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

    22/06/2021 13:00:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
    See the reports history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]hcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    23/06/2021 08:30:00 German Flash Manufacturing PMI
    See the reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Composite PMI

    23/06/2021 13:30:00 Czech CNB Repo Rate
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CZ;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    23/06/2021 14:45:00 USA Markt Manu PMI
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Manufacturing PMI

    23/06/2021 15:30:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    24/06/2021 20:00:00 Mexican interest Rate
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

    Please feel free to ask questions.

    Good luck this week.

    James Thatcher
     
    #44 JamesThatcher, Jun 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2021
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Hungary HUF Interest Rate June 22 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 0.9



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a wide range of estimates as the Hungarian Central bank is expected to start hiking rates, but how much is unclear. Today we have the following forecast ranges.



    High Forecast = 1.1

    Low Forecast = 0.6

    Average Forecast = 0.88



    I will use a forecast of = 0.9 (Previous intetest rate = 0.6)



    If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 0.6%, I will class this as a -0.3% deviation from the forecast of 0.9% and will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move.



    If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.1% or more. I will class this as a +0.2% deviation from the forecast of 0.9%, and I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.




    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
    #45 JamesThatcher, Jun 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2021
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Weekly Summary!! 21 June 2021

    Last week I set up for four trades with no deviations on three of those. I triggered on Australian employment data, but other factors overshadowed this, and the outcome wasn't as expected. Check out my previous post for a full explanation. Still, I'll draw a line and move on. Remember to take each trade on its own merit. When a trade doesn't work out, don't let it rule your head. This week we've got some exciting reports coming out.
    This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

    22/06/2021 13:00:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
    See reports history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]hcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    23/06/2021 08:30:00 German Flash Manufacturing PMI
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Composite PMI

    23/06/2021 13:30:00 Czech CNB Repo Rate
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CZ;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    23/06/2021 14:45:00 USA Markt Manu PMI
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Manufacturing PMI

    23/06/2021 15:30:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    24/06/2021 20:00:00 Mexican interest Rate
    See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
    Please feel free to ask questions.

    Good luck this week.

    James Thatcher
     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Germany German Flash Manufacturing PMI June 23 2021


    What does the data mean to the market?

    PMI Manufacturing data is a survey of a wide range number of private sector business leaders, the results of the survey are released towards the end of the month and therefore become a good forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. The state of the private sector has to knock on effect on employment, purchasing and growth of the economy. Anything above 50 is considered growth/positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is considered contraction/negative for the value of the currency.

    Theres also services PMI at the samne time which is slightly less important to the German economy then manufactoring but I would not like this to conflict with Manufactoring to take a trade.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 21 2021 Negative deviations from manufacturing and composite pushed EURUSD down 14 pips, even with a mall conflict from services.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTIxJTIwNzozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE

    March 24 2021 Massive deviations on all four lines created a small but well-formed 13 pips on EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0zLTI0JTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    PMI - Composite (M/M) - P 57.6
    PMI - Manufacturing (M/M) - P 63
    PMI - Services (M/M) - P 55.7



    Today's trade plan

    If Manufacturing deviates by 3.0 with both composite and services deviating by 1.0 in the same direction, we should be assured of a good move.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The week ahead. 28 June 2021

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    30 June 2021 13:15 GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

    30 June 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    01 July 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Interest rate
    View the report history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=SE;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    01 July 2021 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI
    View the report history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM Manufacturing PMI

    02 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls

    I'm most looking forward to NFP; two months ago, I had a great trade out of this.
    For those that missed it, here's a reminder.

    https://jamesthatchersnewstradingan...-States-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-May-7-2021



    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my focus. If new opportunities come up, I'll post any trade plans as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates.

    Please feel free to ask questions.

    Good luck this week.
    James Thatcher
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories June 30 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTIzJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3850

    2) API Actual Crude = -8200

    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -900

    4) API Actual Gasoline = +2400

    Therefore I will use -6000 for OIL and +500 for Gasoline


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
    With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 4 2021 -116 deviation with some minor conflicts that were not big enough to overpower the shock of the headline. The move was slow and sustained and would have been easy to make some money from this!
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTQlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

    May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today!
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

    April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.3
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 720
    Unemployment Rate 5.6
    US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 3.6



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast range is smaller than last month, This is good for us as we can tighten the required deviation. I'll be looking for a 200k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Today we saw a +130k deviation from the forecast on the headline, which is sizeable, however not sizeable enough to avoid a conflict from the Unemployment Rate, which today deviated by 0.2 in the opposite direction. We saw USDJPY spike in the direction of the headline before very quickly going in the opposite direction, a reminder of how this report can wipe out your accounts if you're not careful.No profits made, no losses taken. Try next month again.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=59294;t=2021-7-2 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S1
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 30 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2000 deviation to the downside. However, gasoline conflicted therefore it wasn't a trigger for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTMwJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTIzJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2250



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -4000

    2) API Actual Crude = -8000

    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1750

    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2700




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Canada Employment Change July 9 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. More people in employment is good for the value of the currency as it indicates a stronger economy.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw

    March 12 2021 Big deviation which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers but this still worked great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0zLTEyJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMzMA


    [​IMG] I will use forecasts of:

    Empl Chg - Full Time 0
    Employment Change 175
    Unemployment Rate 7.8



    Today's trade plan

    It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls at the same time. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

    If we see a deviation of 150k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs.

    I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]
    The week ahead 12 July 2021


    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    13 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

    14 July 2021 03:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

    14 July 2021 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=TR;nn=One-Week Repo Rate

    14 July 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision

    14 July 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    15 July 2021 02:30 GMT Australian Employment Change
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=AU;nn=Employment Change

    15 July 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand CPI q/q
    View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=CPI (QoQ)
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core CPI m/m July 13 2021




    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs, this was largely due to the fact that The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it will look through positive inflation, and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

    I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with the price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

    With significant deviation, big initial move, and lots of continuing price action, the perfect storm makes it virtually impossible not to make money.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.4
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4
    CPI (M/M) 0.5
    CPI (Y/Y) 4.9



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.4% to trigger a buy or sell on USDJPY.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.4%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkish Rate Decision July 14 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19.00



    Today's trade plan

    All economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%

    The last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. The new Governor Kavcioglu has said that he will ignore higher inflation. What he says and what he does are two separate things; however, recently, we had a strong inflation number. It's unlikely he would shock the markets and move the rates, but you never know, so I'll be ready just in case.

    If we get a change of 1.0 in either direction, I'll take a trade.





    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand CPI q/q July 15 2021
    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 20 2021 A 0.1 positive deviation caused nearly a 40 pip spike however this was before the central bank moved its monetary policy, It quickly retraced and wouldn't have been a positive outcome if I had traded this event.

    Now RBNZ is expected to hike interest rates soon this data will react far better than in the peak of covid lockdowns when interest rates were purposely held at record lows.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIwJTIwMjI6NDU6MDAuMDtzPUVVUk5aRDtyPVMx

    January 21 2021 A strong 0.4 positive deviation moved the market some 24 pips with the following continuation after the first minute, this wasn't bad price action and this was when the data wasn't in focus, unlike today.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xLTIxJTIwMjE6NDU6MDAuMDtzPUVVUk5aRDtyPVMzMA

    October 22 2020 A 0.2 negative deviation saw a 30 pip move but the price whipped back and forth for a few minutes after the trade, this wouldn't have been a pleasant ride had I have traded. Today I will be looking for at least a 0.3 dev and this data is now hot so I don't expect to see price action like this.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0xMC0yMiUyMDIxOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (Q/Q) 0.7
    CPI (Y/Y) 2.7



    Today's trade plan

    Today is the first time we get to trade NZ CPI, since the RBNZ reduced their stimulus, and indicated to the market that they were getting ready to hike interest rates, we have a 50/50 chance of a hike in August. It's been a long time since we've been in this position and the markets love it.

    Today's CPI report and the Employment report before the decision is made are the two key pieces of data the market is watching closely. so expect some fireworks,

    We know that RBNZ has said that they will look through strong CPI numbers however I don't think the market will ignore them!

    If we see a 0.3 deviations in either direction from either line as long as both lines do not conflict, we should see a sustained move on all NZD pairs!

    The two lines of data are

    CPI (Y/Y)
    CPI (Q/Q)


    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    As my analysis predicted, we saw fireworks, with a very strong 0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which saw a significant spike of over 50 pips.

    It's great that the markets are so focused on this data.



    The next piece of data from New Zealand before the rate decision will be the employment data on the 3rd of August 2021.





    Keep watching this space for trade plans and analysis.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=59738;t=2021-7-15 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    22/07/2021 14:08:00 South African IR exp 19/20 m late

    See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=ZA;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    23/07/2021 08:30:00 German Flash Manufacturing PMI

    See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Manufacturing PMI

    23/07/2021 11:30:00 Russian Central Bank Key Rate

    See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=RU;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    Free FX Calendar https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar
     

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