James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories July 21 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as there were other news factors which pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTE0JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    July 8 2021 Minimal deviation from Oil on this occasion but substantial deviations from Gasoline. It wasn't a trade for me but good to see the markets react with a healthy 41 pip move in the first minute followed by continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS03LTglMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    June 30 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2000 deviation to the downside. However, Gasoline conflicted; therefore, it wasn't a trigger for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTMwJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1850
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +0500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -4500
    2) API Actual Crude = +0800
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1050
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3300


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late July 22 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018. Which is great from a bi monthly report.
    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
    See charts here.
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=16529;t=2020-03-19;r=M1


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    Its worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...DIwLTEtMjElMjAxMzowOjAwLjA7cz1aQVJKUFk7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.5



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction , then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR
    ZARJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    German Flash Manufacturing PMI July 23 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    PMI Manufacturing data is a survey of a wide range of private sector business leaders; the survey results are released towards the end of the month and therefore become a good forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. The private sector state has a knock-on effect on employment, purchasing, and growth of the economy. Therefore, anything above 50 is considered growth/positive for the currency value. Conversely, anything below 50 is considered contraction/negative for the value of the currency.

    At the same time, there's also services PMI, which is slightly less important to the German economy than manufacturing, but I would not like this to conflict with Manufacturing to take a trade.

    [​IMG]
    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 23 2021 This fell just short of my trigger but it was good to see the market react with a modest 10 pip move, these moves are slow and staggered which is great for my style.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTIzJTIwNzozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE

    May 21 2021 Negative deviations from manufacturing and composite pushed EURUSD down 14 pips, even with a mall conflict from services.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTIxJTIwNzozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE

    March 24 2021 Massive deviations on all four lines created a small but well-formed 13 pips on EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0zLTI0JTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    PMI - Composite (M/M) 60.8
    PMI - Manufacturing (M/M) 64.2
    PMI - Services (M/M) 59.1



    Today's trade plan

    If Manufacturing deviates by 3.0 with both composite and services deviating by 1.0 in the same direction, we should be assured of a good move.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate July 23 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIzJTIwMTA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFJVQjtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    Central Bank Key Rate 6.3



    Today's trade plan

    Please note that I am using a forcast based on the average predictions as follows.

    Prior 5.5%
    High 6.5%
    Low 5.5%
    AVG 6.3%
    Forcasted predictions
    1 x 5.5%
    8 x 6.00%
    9 x 6.25%
    19 x 6.5%





    If we see a reduction of 80 bps dev from average, i'll take a sell
    If we see a hike of 55 bps dev from average i'll take a sell.



    Tradable pairs

    USDRUB


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia CPI q/q July 28 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

    The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTI4JTIwMTozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xLTI3JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC03LTI5JTIwMTozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVEVVNEO3I9UzEw


    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.5
    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.2
    CPI (Q/Q) 0.9
    CPI (Y/Y) 1.4


    Today's trade plan

    If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.


    Tradable pairs
    [​IMG]
    AUDJPY
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    03rd August 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand Unemployment Rate

    Check out the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ

    04th August 2021 15:30 GMT USA Crude Oil Inventories

    Check out the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    05th August 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate

    Check out the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    06th August 2021 13:30 GMT USD Non-Farm Employment Change

    Check out the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    03rd August 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand Unemployment Rate

    Two weeks ago, the RBNZ (New Zealand's Central Bank) reduced their stimulus and indicated to the market that they were getting ready to hike interest rates. So we have a 50/50 chance of a hike this month. It's been a long time since we've been in this position, and the markets love it.

    Tonight we get the Employment report; this is the last piece of data we get before the interest rate decision is made. I expect some fireworks.

    Watch this space for my full trade plan and analysis.

    Check out the report history here.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49VW[​IMG]
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

    There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTQlMjAyMjo0NTowMC4wO3M9RVVSTlpEO3I9UzEw

    February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

    I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.

    Overall the price action was excellent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0yLTIlMjAyMTo0NTowMC4wO3M9RVVSTlpEO3I9UzU




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.7
    Employment Change (Y/Y) 1.2
    Unemployment Rate 4.4



    Today's trade plan

    If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.2 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.

    NZ is poised to raise their rates in August, or could this data push that back to October? It's a key report and one I have been looking forward to for some time.




    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories August 4 2021[​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as other news factors pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTE0JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    July 8 2021 Minimal deviation from Oil on this occasion but substantial deviations from Gasoline. It wasn't a trade for me, but it was good to see the markets react with a healthy 41 pip move in the first minute followed by continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS03LTglMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -3000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3102
    2) API Actual Crude = -0879
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1780
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -5750


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    I was excited about this trade, and rightly so. We saw a 0.4 deviation from the forecast on the Unemployment rate with a supporting deviation from Employment Change of 0.2. Price action was great, with loads of opportunity to enter on the retraces. Overall it continued well and over a long period. I cashed out after about 15 minutes, but the price continued further into the night.

    A great trade and some profits banked.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=60486;t=2021-8-3 22:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S1

    See the video at : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGo9ocvpUdc5bTDw2Pyo5bQ
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change August 6 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?
    [​IMG]
    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

    June 4 2021 With a sizeable negative deviation of 116k we saw some minor conflicts, but they were not big enough to overpower the shock of the headline. The move was slow and sustained, and it would have given plenty of opportunities to enter and bank some good pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTQlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

    May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 870
    Unemployment Rate 5.7
    US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 0.3



    Today's trade plan

    I'll be looking for a 200k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The Week Ahead 09 August 2021

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    11th August 13:30 GMT US Core CPI
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

    11th August 13:30 GMT US Crude Oil Investories
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    12th August 12:00 GMT Turkey Interest Rate
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=TR;nn=One-Week Repo Rate

    12th August 17:00 GMT WASDE Soyabean
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=USDA WASDE Soybean Production

    12th August 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision
    Untitled design (49).jpg
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core CPI m/m August 11 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 13 2021 Strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs, this was largely due to the fact that The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it will look through positive inflation, and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

    I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with the price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

    With significant deviation, big initial move, and lots of continuing price action, the perfect storm makes it virtually impossible not to make money.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.3
    CPI (M/M) 0.5
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.3



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.4% to trigger a buy or sell on USDJPY.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.4%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories August 11 2021


    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS04LTQlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as other news factors pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTE0JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -0750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkey Turkish Rate Decision August 12 2021
    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19



    Today's trade plan

    All economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%

    The last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. The new Governor Kavcioglu has said that he will ignore higher inflation. What he says and what he does are two separate things; however, recently, we had a strong inflation number. It's unlikely he would shock the markets and move the rates, but you never know, so I'll be ready just in case.

    If we get a change of 1.0 in either direction, I'll take a trade.





    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Mexico MEX interest Rate August 12 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTI0JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...DE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1TMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 4.5


    Today's trade plan

    I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradable move.

    Today there is a mixed opinion between Reuters and Bloomberg if there will be a change or not which is great, this gives us an outside chance of a surprise.


    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The Week Ahead 16th August 2021
    [​IMG]
    18th Aug 2021 03:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u

    18th Aug 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI m/m
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ


    18th Aug 2021 15:30 GMT USA Crude Oil Inventories
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw


    19th Aug 2021 09:00 GMT Norway's Rate Decision
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw


    20th Aug 2021 07:00 GMT UK's Retail Sales m/m
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9R0I7bm49UmV0YWlsJTIwU2FsZXMlMjAlMjhNb00lMjk
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand Official Cash Rate August 18 2021

    [​IMG]


    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMDE5LTgtNyUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.5



    Today's trade plan

    Today The Markets are expecting a minimum of a 0.25 basis point (BPS) hike.



    Some economists are even predicting a 0.50bps hike.



    The Markets have already valued the NZ dollar based on a 0.65bps by the end of 2021



    In the last 24 hours, Covid has reared its ugly head again, causing the New Zealand Prime Minister to lock down once more. Thus, leaving The Markets with some very concerning questions.



    How long will the new lockdown last?

    What effects will it have on economics?



    I estimate that the chance of seeing a hike today is much closer to 50/50 than it was.



    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.25% (effectively a -0.25 deviation). Thus, we can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 0.50% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Canada Core CPI m/m August 18 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTE2JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx

    April 21 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting 0.1 deviation from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y



    These deviations are just not sizeable enough, and the price action wasn't tradable.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.30
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.40



    Today's trade plan

    Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.

    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.

    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     

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