James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories August 18 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS04LTQlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as other news factors pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTE0JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1450
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -200



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Norway NOK Rate Decision August 19 2021[​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    7th May 2020

    A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    20th March 2020
    A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.


    13th March 2020

    An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

    The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

    Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..


    I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0%

    Today's trade plan

    I will set up any deviation on this trade, although I expect a no-trade as 100% of economists predict no chance of a change in today's rate. However, if a surprise did happen, I would be devastated I wasn't ready.


    Tradable pairs

    EURNOK
    USDNOK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    24th August 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate

    See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest Rate Decision

    25th August 2021 15:30 GMT USA Cruse Oil Inventories

    See the report history here
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    I'm researching a load of new opportunities, so watch this space for more trade plans as they come to light!![​IMG]
     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    Hungary HUF Interest Rate August 24 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice two minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. So if you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS03LTI3JTIwMTI6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNESFVGO3I9UzI

    June 23rd 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate, which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x

    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 1.5


    Today's trade plan

    Today we have the following forecast ranges.


    High Forecast = 1.50
    Low Forecast = 1.20

    Official Estimate = 1.5
    Average = 1.48
    Previous intetest rate = 1.2



    If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 1.2%, a-0.3% deviation from the forecast will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move or more.



    If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.7% or more. I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.




    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories August 25 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?[​IMG]

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and therefore, it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS04LTQlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.




    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change September 3 2021[​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTYlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

    May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
    Unemployment Rate 5.2



    Today's trade plan

    This is HO, and holds the key to when the tapering will begin! I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDDOW
    USDJPY
    XAUUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw

    March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0zLTEyJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMzMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Empl Chg - Full Time 0
    Employment Change 66.8
    Unemployment Rate 7.3



    Today's trade plan

    It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

    If we see a negative deviation of 60k or a positive deviation of 80k in from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs.

    I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core CPI m/m September 14 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?
    [​IMG]
    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTExJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.2
    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.3



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.3%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Canada Core CPI m/m September 15 2021




    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTE2JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.1
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.9
    CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
    CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.7
    CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 3.1



    Today's trade plan

    Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.

    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.

    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.

    **IMPORTANT** On this trade we hope and expect to see a slow move that happens over the first 25-45 seconds. When data hits, the market shouldn't move more than 5 pips giving you a chance to jump in. I would suggest that you would want to have your trade live within the first 5 seconds and ride the move for the next 20 seconds or so. Once you're a few pips in profit, set your stop loss to break even, to protect your equity. If things go to plan, then I would hope for around 20 pips on USDCAD in total before the move stalls.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories September 15 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
    2) API Actual Crude = -5400
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The Week Ahead 20th September 2021

    [​IMG]

    In the week ahead I'll be looking closely at the following releases

    22nd Sept 2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories

    See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    23rd Sept 2021 12:00 Turkish Interest Rate

    See the report history here: -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwTGVuZGluZyUyMFJhdGU

    23rd Sept 2021 14:00 South African Interest Rate

    See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories September 22 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
    2) API Actual Crude = -6100
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkish Rate Decision September 23 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19



    Today's trade plan

    22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%

    1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%

    If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.





    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    South Africa Interest Rate Sept 23 2021 14:00 GMT

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x



    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.5


    Today's trade plan

    If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    2
    Yesterday we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.

    Happy Friday, Everyone :)

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=63188;t=2021-9-23 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1

    See the video at :
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    The Week Ahead 27 September 2021

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    29th September 2021 15:30 GMT Us Crude Oil Inventories

    Check out the history and charts of the report.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    30th September 2021 13:30 GMT Czech CNB Repo Rate

    Check out the history and charts of the report.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    30th September 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate

    Check out the history and charts of the report.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24[​IMG]
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    184
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    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories September 29 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories 0



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2150 (BB)
    2) API Actual Crude = +4100
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1500 (BB)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    184
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    2
    Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate September 30 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have given plenty of opportunities to enter.

    Check out the price action here.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    CNB Repo Rate 1.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 1.25%, which is a 0.50% hike to the rate. All economists are unanimous of this outcome, but I'll be ready to trade if the actual result is not as predicted.

    Take a trade if we see a 0.25% deviation from the 1.25% forecast to take a buy or sell.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCZK
    USDCZK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     

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