James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Mexico MEX interest Rate September 30 2021

    [​IMG]


    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS02LTI0JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...DE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 4.75



    Today's trade plan

    Twenty-five economists predict a no change whereas one is suggesting a cut to 4.5 which gives us an outside chance of a trade.

    I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradable move.




    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Today we saw the CNB hike the Repo Rate higher than all the economists predicted. They hiked the rates by 0.75 basis points, the highest rate hike since 1997. Giving us a great sell opportunity on USDCZK with a nice staggered move down 140 pips over the next 90 seconds. An excellent trade

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=64284;t=2021-9-30 12:30:00.0;s=USDCZK;r=S1

    See the video at :

     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand Official Cash Rate October 6 2021
    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS04LTE4JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMQ

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMDE5LTgtNyUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    Today The Markets are expecting a minimum of a 0.25 basis point (BPS) hike.
    So an actual outcome of a 0.50% interest rate

    One economist is predicting no change, so rates will remain at 0.25%







    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.25% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 0.75% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories October 6 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +4700
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -500

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    Forecasts and API..
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +1000
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +400 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change October 8 2021

    [​IMG]
     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change October 8 2021
    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTMlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTYlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 500
    Unemployment Rate 5.1



    Today's trade plan

    This report is nicely in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.

    Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction. Anything between those figures, I would expect to have a poor reaction as we want the markets to be sure which way this will affect the Fed's decision over monetary policy.

    I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The Week Ahead 11th October 2021
    [​IMG]

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    13th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m

    See the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5

    14th October 2021 08:30 GMT SWEDISH CPI MM

    See the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9U0U7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

    14th October 2021 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

    See the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    15th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales m/m

    See the report history here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9VVM7bm49UmV0YWlsJTIwU2FsZXMlMjAlMjhNb00lMjk
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core CPI m/m October 13 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS04LTExJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4
    CPI (M/M) 0.3
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.3



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories October 14 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1250
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -4600

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1100 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +5200
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = 1250 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -4600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core Retail Sales m/m October 15 2021
    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.

    I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    January 15 2021 Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xLTE1JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Retail Sales - Ex-Autos (M/M) 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    I'll take a trade if we see a 2.0% from the Core Retail Sales M/M figure with no conflicts from any of the other lines.



    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    The Week Ahead 11th October 2021

    [​IMG]
    In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.


    19th October 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
    See the report history here,
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    20th October 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
    See the report history here, https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    21st October 2021 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
    See the report history here, https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...FI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwQm9ycm93aW5nJTIwUmF0ZQ
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Hungary Interest Rate October 19 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS03LTI3JTIwMTI6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNESFVGO3I9UzI

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x



    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 1.8


    Today's trade plan

    Today we have the following forecast ranges.


    High Forecast = 1.95
    Low Forecast = 1.65
    Official Estimate = 1.8
    Average = 1.81
    Previous intetest rate = 1.65


    Looking to take a trade 0.1% deviation from the official forecast so 1.7 to sell and 1.9 to buy



    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United Kingdom Core CPI y/y October 20 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS0yLTE3JTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1NMQ

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jAyMS0xLTIwJTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.0
    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.2



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.



    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPAUD
    GBPCAD
    GBPNZD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories October 20 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > 0
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -3500

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +3300
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -950 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -3500


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkish Rate Decision October 21 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS05LTIzJTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVFJZO3I9TTE

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 17.00



    Today's trade plan

    With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan dismissing three of the monetary policymakers at Turkeys Central Bank, it is strongly believed this was a deliberate move to ensure another rate cut today to boost credits and exports. Although such interference is widely frowned upon, I'm interested in how much they will cut by how the market will react as the Lira is already at an all-time low.

    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 17.0% and 17.5%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on 1.0 on either side of this.

    If it remains at 18%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 16%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate October 22 2021
    [​IMG]


    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTIzJTIwMTA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFJVQjtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    Central Bank Key Rate 7.0



    Today's trade plan

    Theres varying estimates on forcast but the mostly weighted to a change to tha rate today of 7.00% a hike from the previous 6.75%

    I'll take a buy on a +0.5 deviation from forcast so if they hike more than expected I will buy the RUB (Selling the USDRUB)
    I will take a sell on a -0.25 deviation from forcast so if they do not change the rate and it remains at 6.75% i will sell the RUB (Buying the USDRUB)


    Tradable pairs

    USDRUB


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Another shock to the markets today was when the highly anticipated cut to the Turkish interest didn't happen; the markets quickly revalued the Turkish Lira's value. We saw a whopping 2000 pips in a few seconds: what a lovely move, a great trade.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=65055;t=2021-10-21 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1

    See the video at :
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    The Week Ahead 25th October 2021

    In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    27th October 2021 01:30 GMT Australian CPI
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5

    27th October 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
    See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision

    27th October 2021 15:3 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia CPI q/q October 27 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

    The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNC0yOCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wMS0yNyUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wNy0yOSUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.5
    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.8
    CPI (Q/Q) 0.8
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.1



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     

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