James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Canada Overnight Rate October 27 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    See the price action and charts here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.25



    Today's trade plan

    All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.25


    Today's trade plan

    All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +2318
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2235 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +0530


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    [​IMG]

    In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

    02nd November 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate

    See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    03rd November 2021 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

    See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    04th November 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate

    See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    04th November 2021 13:30 GMT Czeck CNB Repo Rate

    See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    04th November 2021 12:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

    See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia Cash Rate November 2 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 3 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

    Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand Unemployment Rate November 2 2021

    [​IMG]


    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

    There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wNS0wNCUyMDIyOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TMTA

    February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

    I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.

    Overall the price action was excellent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wMi0wMiUyMDIxOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TNQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.4
    Unemployment Rate 3.9



    Today's trade plan

    If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.






    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United Kingdom Official Bank Rate November 4 2021

    [​IMG]
    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10% but many economists expect an increase to the rate to 0.25%. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.20% or more.


    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate November 4 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

    Check out the price action here.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    CNB Repo Rate 2.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 2.00%, a 0.50% hike to the current Interest Rate. There are some opinions out there that they might increase more to 2.25% so I will only take a buy if we see a hike to 2.50%




    Tradable pairs

    EURCZK
    USDCZK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Non-Farm Employment Change November 5 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Unemployment Rate 4.7
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 450



    Today's trade plan

    Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction.

    I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


     
  10. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Core CPI m/m November 10 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.30
    CPI (M/M) 0.60
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.90



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories November 10 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0.00
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1600 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = -2500
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1250 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Today, we saw a positive deviation from the headline number Core CPI M/M of 0.2%, supported by deviations on all secondary lines.



    We saw a lovely spike down about 30 pips before it pulled back slightly, then continuing and finally consolidating between 1.3490 to 1.3480



    I cashed out reasonably early as it only just gave me a trigger, banking around 25 - 30 pips after about 30 seconds.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=66483;t=2021-11-10 13:30:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1

    See the video at :
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Mexico MEX interest Rate November 11 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 5.0



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

    Seventeen economists predict a hike to 5.00% but five predict a hike further to 5.25%

    I'm using an average forecast of 5.05%

    Therefore if we see a hike to 5.00% I will not take a trade.

    If we see a hike of 5.05% or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 1000 pips.

    If we see no hike and the rate remains at 4.75% I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

    Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.





    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    The Week Ahead 15th November 2021

    [​IMG]


    In the week ahead, I'll be looking at the following releases.

    16th November 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    17th November 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

    17th November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    18th November 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Interest Rate

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ

    18th November 2021 13:08* GMT South African Interest Rate
    *(Approx, come out up to 20 minutes late)

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Hungarian Interest Rate November 16 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x


    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 2.1



    Today's trade plan

    Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%

    There are varying predictions

    Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
    The Average is 2.18%

    I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.


    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021

    [​IMG]


    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = +700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    Turkey Turkish Rate Decision November 18 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 15.00



    Today's trade plan

    With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan, sending mixed messages about the Central bank's independence demonstrates the questionable behaviour of Turkeys leader. Normally leaders stay out of monetary policy.



    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 16.0%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.



    If it remains at 16%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 14%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late November 18 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...IwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.75



    Today's trade plan

    We have varying forecasts today as follows: -

    High = 3.75
    Low = 3.5
    Prev = 3.5
    Avg = 3.63

    Therefore I will use a forecast of 3.75% therefore we will need to see a hike to the rates to 4.00% to take a trade.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    The Week Ahead 22nd November 2021

    [​IMG]


    In the Week ahead, I will be closely watching the following releases.

    24th November 2021 1:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate

    See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u

    24th November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

    See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

    25th November 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Intrest rate

    See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9U0U7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
     

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