James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%.

    No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 %




    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.







    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.

    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021

    [​IMG]

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0
    DOE Gasoline Inventories 0



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg)
    2) API Actual Crude = +2300
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Swedish Interest Rate November 25 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1

    December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.00



    Today's trade plan

    No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURSEK
    USDSEK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.[​IMG]
     
  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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