New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 0.75 Today's trade plan Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%. No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 % If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time. If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time. If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. Tradable pairs AUDNZD EURNZD GBPNZD NZDCHF NZDJPY NZDUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0 DOE Gasoline Inventories 0 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg) 2) API Actual Crude = +2300 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +600 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Swedish Interest Rate November 25 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...xOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1 December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.00 Today's trade plan No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time. Tradable pairs EURSEK USDSEK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 29th November 2021 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 1st December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw 3rd December 2021 13:30 GMT Us Non-farm Payrolls See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
United States Crude Oil Inventories December 1 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories +750 DOE Refinery Utilization +1500 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1450 (bb) 2) API Actual Crude = -700 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0332 (bb) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +2200 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Non-Farm Employment Change December 3 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 550,000 Unemployment Rate 4.5 Today's trade plan Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 70k to take a trade in the relative direction. I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 6th December 2021 In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 07th December 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 08th December 2021 12:00 GMT Polish Interest Rate Decision See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9UEw7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 08th December 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 08th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw 10th December 2021 13:30 GMT US Consumer Prices Index See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
Poland Interest Rate Decision December 8 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the PLN, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the PLN. Historic deviations and their outcome November 3 2021 Today we saw a 0.25% hike above the forecasted increase of 0.25%. Therefore a 0.50% basis point increase to the rate. We saw a 264 pip move in the first minute. Check out the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjUwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJQTE47cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: PL Rates Statement 1.75 Today's trade plan Today I'll be looking for a -/+ 0.50% deviation from the forecast of a 1.75% interest rate increase to trade in the relevant direction. So if we get an actual of 2.25% I'll take a buy or 1.25% to take a sell. Tradable pairs EURPLN USDPLN Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market? Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Historic deviations and their outcome March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 0.25 Today's trade plan All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time. Tradable pairs AUDCAD CADJPY EURCAD GBPCAD NZDCAD USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Crude Oil Inventories December 8 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000 DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1521 (bb) 2) API Actual Crude = -3100 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2000 (bb) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Core CPI m/m December 10 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.9 CPI (M/M) 0.7 CPI (Y/Y) 6.8 Today's trade plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines! Secondary Lines - CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2% Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 13th December 2021 In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases. 14th December 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 15th December 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ 15th December 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI m/m See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ 15th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw 15th December 2021 19:00 GMT US Federal Funds Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 16th December 2021 09:00 GMT Norwegian Rate Decision See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 16th December 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ 16th December 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 16th December 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican interest Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Hungary HUF Interest Rate December 14 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF. Historic deviations and their outcome July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market! See the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Base Rate Announcement 2.5 Today's trade plan Today I will use a forecast of 2.5% which is a hike of 0.4% There are varying predictions LOW - 2.3% HIGH - 3.3% EST - 2.5% AVG - 2.59% I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.3% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more. Tradable pairs EURHUF USDHUF Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United Kingdom Core CPI y/y December 15 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it. Historic deviations and their outcome February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.7 CPI (Y/Y) 4.8 Today's trade plan If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips. Tradable pairs EURGBP GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Canada Core CPI m/m December 15 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI (M/M) 0.4 CPI (Y/Y) 4.7 Today's trade plan Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y. We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data. Tradable pairs EURCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Crude Oil Inventories December 15 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also. There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report. Historic deviations and their outcome November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx I will use forecasts of: DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1250 DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500 Today's trade plan If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts. 1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1700 (bb) 2) API Actual Crude = -0800 3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2500 (bb) 4) API Actual Gasoline = +400 Tradable pairs USDBNT USDOIL Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Federal Funds Rate December 15 2021 What does the data mean to the market? Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD. Historic deviations and their outcome https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 I will use forecasts of: FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.25 Today's trade plan If we see a change to the rate today of 0.25 in either direction I will take a trade and expect to see a sustained move for some time. Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Norway NOK Rate Decision December 16 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome June 18 2020 7th May 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 March 19 2020 20th March 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25% https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ. March 19 2020 13th March 2020 An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy, is the first cut to interest rates since 2016 The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts. Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020 which I'm glad to say is now behind us and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.. I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.50 Today's trade plan Today it is forecast for a hike to the rate to 0.50% Most economists predict this therefore I will take a buy if they hike more to 0.75% or a sell if they don't hike and leave the rates at 0.25% This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50% Tradable pairs EURNOK USDNOK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Turkish Rate Decision December 16 2021 What does the data mean to the market? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate. With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after. Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Benchmark Rate 14.00 Today's trade plan Turkey's Central bank recently defended the key level and intervened in the markets which make this slightly more difficult to call. We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 13.0%, but I'll take the median of the forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this. If it remains at 15%, I'll take a buy If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell. If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out. Tradable pairs EURTRY USDTRY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate December 16 2021 What does the data mean to the market? Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP. See the report history here : https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 I will use forecasts of: Official Bank Bate 0.10% Today's trade plan Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10%, but many economists expected an increase to 0.25%. However Omicron covid variant has cast doubt on that. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.25% or more. Tradable pairs EURGBP GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
