Mexico MEX interest Rate December 16 2021 What does the data mean to the market? Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN. Historic deviations and their outcome June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...E5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 5.25 Today's trade plan Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting. I'm using an average forecast of 5.33% Therefore if we see a hike to 5.25% I will not take a trade. If we see a hike of 5.50 % or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 700 pips. If we see no hike and the rate remains at 5.00 % I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of. Tradable pairs USDMXN Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Today we had a first, a surprise hike to the Bank of England base rate. A hike was anticipated to help curb high inflation; however, with the emergence of the Omicron variant widely reported in the Uk media and government announcement of new restrictions, the markets expected this to be pushed back to the new year. However, it was almost a unanimous vote to act now. Great for us. I banked around 75 pips. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=69074;t=2021-12-16 12:0:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at :
Free Fx Calendar https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar #forextrader#forex#fxtrading#fxnewstrading#forexnews#forextraders#fx#strategy#forexstrategy#fxsignals#forexsignals#forexeducation#forexlife#forexmoney#forextrade#forexanalysis#forexsignalservice#fxtrader#fxlifestyle#newstrading#motivation#mexico
United States Non-Farm Employment Change January 7 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 433 Unemployment Rate 4.1 Today's trade plan Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 220k to take a trade in the relative direction. I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead This week, i'll be looking closely at the following release. 12th January 2022 13:30 GMT US CPI See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5
United States Core CPI m/m January 12 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD. There are 4 lines of data. CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y) Historic deviations and their outcome August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5 CPI - Core (Y/Y) 5.4 CPI (M/M) 0.4 CPI (Y/Y) 7.0 Today's trade plan The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline. Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines! Secondary Lines - CPI - Core (Y/Y) CPI - (M/M) CPI - (Y/Y If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today. With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2% Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
This week, i'll be looking closely at the following release. 19th January 2022 07:00 am United Kingdon Core CPI See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ 20th January 2022 09:00 am Norwegian Interest Rate Decision See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Norway NOK Rate Decision January 20 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome 7th May 2020 A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00% Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 20th March 2020 A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25% Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ. 13th March 2020 An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016 The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts. Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.. I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.50 Today's trade plan Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.50%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to 0.75% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.25% This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50% Tradable pairs EURNOK USDNOK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 25th January 2022 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 26th January 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 27th January 2022 13:00 GMT South African Interest Rate See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
What does the data mean to the market? The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF. Historic deviations and their outcome July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market! Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x I will use forecasts of: Base Rate Announcement 2.7 Today's trade plan Today I will use a forecast of 2.7%, which is a hike of 0.3% I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes, so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to sell if the actual is 2.5% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more. We should see 250 pips from this report if we get a trigger. Tradable pairs EURHUF USDHUF Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Canada Overnight Rate January 26 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Historic deviations and their outcome March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate 0.25 Today's trade plan There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to remain at 0.25% The average prediction is 0.36% With forecasts between 0.50% to 0.25% Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains the same or a buy if they increase to 0.50% Tradable pairs AUDCAD CADJPY EURCAD GBPCAD USDCAD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
South Africa Interest Rate January 27 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa. We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario. March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09 See charts here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x Historic deviations and their outcome January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...IwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.40 Today's trade plan Today it's forecast to see an increase to the rate to 4.00% therefore if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.25% or more I will take a trade on UDSZAR. I'm not looking to trade if we don't see an increase or the increase is as expected. Tradable pairs USDZAR Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 31st January 2022 I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead. 01st February 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 03rd February 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 03rd February 2022 13:30 GMT Czech Repo Rate See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 04th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
Australia Cash Rate February 1 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD. Historic deviations and their outcome March 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets. Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Statement 1.00 Today's trade plan I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time. Tradable pairs AUDUSD EURAUD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate February 3 2022 What does the data mean to the market? Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP. Historic deviations and their outcome See the report history here : https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 I will use forecasts of: Interest Rate Decision 0.50% Today's trade plan Today the official forecast is a hike to 0.50% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on a deviation of 0.25% in either direction. Tradable pairs EURGBP GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Czech Republic CNB Repo Rate February 3 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish. Historic deviations and their outcome February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter. Check out the price action here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: CNB Repo Rate 4.5 Today's trade plan There is a forecast increase to the rate today to 4.5%. I will take a trade in either direction if we see a deviation of 0.5% from the forecast. Tradable pairs USDCZK Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United States Non-Farm Employment Change February 4 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE. Historic deviations and their outcome September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ I will use forecasts of: Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50 Change in NonFarm Payrolls 125 Unemployment Rate 3.9 Today's trade plan Today we have a heavily weighted bias on the downside forecast therefore sells would be dangerous I want to see a deviation of + 200k to take a buy only. I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted. Tradable pairs EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 14th February 2022 In the week ahead, I'll be closely looking at the following releases:- 15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change 16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI 16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales 15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ 16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyME1vTSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ 16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9Q29yZSUyMFJldGFpbCUyMFNhbGVzJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5
United Kingdom Unemployment Rate February 15 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP. See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ I will use forecasts of: Avg Earnings - ex bonus 3.8 ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) 4.10 Today's trade plan I would like to see a deviation of at least 0.2 on the Unemployment Rate with a supporting deviation from Average Earnings of at least 0.2% If we get these conditions we should see a sustained move lasting a few minutes after the release. Tradable pairs EURGBP GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
United Kingdom Core CPI y/y February 16 2022 What does the data mean to the market? The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it. Historic deviations and their outcome February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction. Check out the price action here: https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...AyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE I will use forecasts of: CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.3 CPI (M/M) -0.2 CPI (Y/Y) 5.4 Today's trade plan If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or CPI Y/Y line. With no conflicts on any other line. Tradable pairs GBPUSD Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!! Good luck!! James Thatcher Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
