JamesThatcher and CSFX thread

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Feb 17, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    Australian data is showing more signs of pushing the Aussie dollar around when we get a good surprise. Employment is a key metric for the Aussy as the RBA is watching it! Last time we really didn't get that much of a deviation, with just -0.1 in Unemployment creating a small 4 pip move. Not enough to trade, but does show that the Aussie is sensitive to a deviation.
    Check out the move here...
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=26434;t=2021-01-21;r=M1

    It is important that we consider the 3 main lines in any trading decision,

    Employment = The headline number of how many jobs are gained or lost.
    Full Time = How many of those jobs are Full-time positions, as opposed to Part-Time. This is important as a big positive surprise in Employment number may look good initially, but if it's made up of many Part-time positions, well that's not good at all!
    Unemployment= This line is important! the RBA is watching this line specifically, and will be key to any trade's success! This month the forecast ranges are tighter than normal, so that helps if our triggers are hit! Trade Plan...No Slippage control...

    Trade on
    AUDNZD
    T1 TEST = EC=50K & UE= 0.2 & FT=38K all must dev
    T2 VERY SMALL= EC=50K & UE= 0.4 & FT=38K all must dev
    or
    T2 VERY SMALL= EC=100K & UE= 0.3 & FT=38K all must dev
    T3 SMALL =EC= 50K & UE=0.8 & FT=38K all must dev

    With Slippage control..
    Trade on
    GBPAUD Slippage of = 5/7/8 pips of slippage
    EURAUD Slippage of = 5/7/8 pips of slippage

    T1 TEST = EC=40K & UE= 0.2 & FT=38K all must dev
    T2 VERY SMALL= EC=40K & UE= 0.4 & FT=38K all must dev
    or
    T2 VERY SMALL= EC=100K & UE= 0.3 & FT=38K all must dev
    T3 SMALL =EC= 40K & UE=0.8 & FT=38K all must dev
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    DOE Crude Forecast is -2426
    DOE Gasoline is +1397
    API Actual Crude is -5800
    API Actual Gasoline is +3900

    Will therefor use a forecast of = -4000 for Crude oil
    Will therefor use a forecast of = +2500 for Gasoline

    Remember that OIL is a commodity, so more oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!!

    Check out the great move that API private report created last night here! Nice spike and continuation!
    See charts here....
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=29263;t=2021-02-17;r=M1

    Last weeks DOE report didn't trigger for us but was very close!
    See charts here....
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28647;t=2021-02-10;r=M1

    Trade plan..
    For non-slip platforms will use a timeout of 100ms
    For platforms with slippage will use a timeout of 500ms
    T1 = 3900 dev, with max conflict of 1500 on Gasoline
    T2 = 4900 dev, with max conflict of 2500 on Gasoline
    T3 = 6000 dev, with max conflict of 3500 on Gasoline

    Additionally, we can set up another T1 trigger of +-5000 on Gasoline if Oil deviates by at least +-1750On platforms that allow slippage control, we can run the same setup but allow GAS conflicts up to 5000 on all triggers.
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.


    I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM) which today has a forecast -0.100.



    Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times., As you can see here.->

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28931;t=2021-02-17;r=M1



    Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forcast, but the move was almost non-existent. See charts here -->

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=26294;t=2021-01-15;r=M1





    Other factors to consider in today’s data are the storms that hit the US back in February, which is likely to have prevented US shoppers from hitting the high streets holding back on spending. It's almost certain that this month there will be a big pullback as the effect of that stimulus.



    Trade Plan



    The markets are expecting some soft numbers, but as all we need is a large enough deviation to get some pips today I’m looking for a 4.0% deviation from the forecast of 0.1

    actual numbers deviate from the forecasted numbers.

    So 4.1% positive to buy USDJPY (Or Sell EURUSD)

    Or -4.1% to sell USDJPY (or BUY EURUSD)

    I’m only looking at the other lines of data for a conflict (Deviation in the direction opposite to the Core MoM number) if they all deviate in the right direction with 4% on Core we should expect a slow move on these two pairs USDJPY and EURUSD.



    There are too many factors involved today to risk any large money on this one so I will be trading very conservatively.



    Good Luck James
     
  4. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    Asia Pacific stocks were mostly down Wednesday morning ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later in the day. The Shanghai composite is down 0.03% at 3,445.63. Overall, the Singapore MSCI down 0.09% at 350.40. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.15% to 28,995. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 0.07% at 29,740, while the Topix index is up 0.31% at 1966.0. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.54% to 3050.65. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.47% at 6795.2.

    European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.66% up at 14557.58, CAC 40 futures up 0.32% at 6055.4 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.80% at 6,803.6.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.39% up at 32826.0, the S&P 500 down 0.16% to 3962.7 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.11% at 13154.9, NYSE closes at 15669.29 down 0.67%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.06% at 1.39. The USDJPY up 0.09% at 109.086. The USDCHF up 0.09% at 0.92543. EURUSD up 0.05% at 1.19076, EUR/GBP up 0.01% at 0.85654. The USD/CNY down 0.08% at 6.4998, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures up 0.31% at $1,736.46. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.01% to $25.919 per ounce, Platinum down 0.33% at $1209.33 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.38% to $2,489.50.

    Crude Oil mix on Wednesday; Brent crude oil up 0.42% to $68.76 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 0.44% at $64.89.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 56182.31 down 1.28%, Ethereum at 1783.29 down 1.24%, Litecoin at 199.45 down 1.15%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    DISCOVERY Inc. up 2.905% at $75.81, MICRON TECHNOLOGY up 2.904% at $91.43, FORD MOTOR Co. down 5.379% to $12.49, CARNIVAL Corp. up 5.17% to $28.25, MODERNA Inc. up 8.604% to $156.02, FACEBOOK up 2.02% at $279.28.

    Economic news:

    US: U.S. companies are opting to issue bonds with fixed coupons rather than floating rates as the spectre of a rapid rise in yields impels them to lock in their costs of borrowing.

    Refinitiv data showed U.S. companies have issued $456 billion through fixed-coupon bonds until March 15, a 12% increase over the same period last year.

    At the same time, they have borrowed just $77 billion through floating-rate bonds in that period, a 33% decline.

    Eurozone: The European Central Bank won’t allow interest rates to rise too soon while the economy still grapples with the coronavirus pandemic, according to its chief economist.

    “Our objective is basically to make sure the yield curves, which play an important role in determining overall financing conditions, do not move ahead of the economy,” Philip Lane said in an interview with the Financial Times.

    “It is really a shift in monetary policy away from focusing on just the short-term rate by looking at all financing conditions,” because long-dated yields are key too.

    Policy makers decided last week to “significantly” increase the pace of buying in coming months amid concerns that higher yields will pull the rug out from under the euro-area economic recovery.

    Important Data: EURO ZONE CPI (YoY) (Feb) today at 6:00 this time estimated 0.9%, previously which was 0.9%. US Building Permits (Feb) today at 8:30 this time estimated 1.75M, previously which was 1.886M. CANADA Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) today at 8:30 previously which was 0.5%. US Crude Oil Inventories today at 10:30 this time estimated 2.964M, previously which was 13.798M.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.3854, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.3824 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.3898

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19266, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19054 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19636

    EURGBP

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.86080, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.85946 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.86203

    EURJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 130.145, TAKE PROFIT AT 130.440 AND STOP LOSS AT 129.966

    S&P 500

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 3969.66 TAKE PROFIT AT 4000 AND STOP LOSS AT 3932.35

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 64.61 TAKE PROFIT AT 65.30 AND STOP LOSS AT 64.31

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1727.55, TAKE PROFIT AT 1715.82 AND STOP AT 1739.42

    BTC USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 55090.00 TAKE PROFIT AT 55993.00 AND STOP AT 54466.53
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    Country of release - USA

    What the data means to the market. The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US, this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock which the market looks for as an indicator to today’s report, which can also gauge how it will respond.

    Historic Devitations and Their Outcome

    Check out the move that API private report created last night! See charts here: -.
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=33948;t=2021-03-16;r=M1

    We can see last week’s report had a huge deviation of 12000 Barrels but also a huge conflict on Gasoline! I didn’t take this trade due to the conflict which was the right choice, as you can see the move was poor!

    See Charts here: - http://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...naws.com/#/calendar;i=33030;t=2021-03-03;r=M1

    Today’s Forecasts

    DOE Crude Forecast = 2964
    API Actual Crude = -1000
    DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2996
    API Actual Gasoline = -0900

    Therefore I’ll use the forecast of
    = 0 for Crude oil
    = - 1000 for Gasoline

    Today’s Trade Plan

    Crude and Gasoline must deviate in the same direction, if Crude deviates by a minimum of 4000, then we can look to enter the market for some easy profit!

    We know that the market watches the API oil report for clues as to the possible outcome of The Crude Oil Inventories report today. Yesterday’s API showed another conflict between Gasoline and Crude. Let's hope that's not what happens today, as we don't want to take any trade if there's a conflict.

    Tradeable Pairs - US Oil, Crude, WTI

    Trade with Slippage Control - Yes

    Trade without Slippage Control - Yes
     
  6. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 18 MARCH 2021
    Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up Thursday morning. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.27% at 3,454.97. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.84% at 354.45. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 1.53% to 29,433. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.08% at 30,030, while the Topix index is up 1.53% at 1992.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.62% to 3066.53. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.73% at 6745.9.

    European equities Wednesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.27% up at 14596.61, CAC 40 futures down 0.01% at 6054.8 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.60% at 6,762.7.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.58% up at 33015.4, the S&P 500 up 0.29% to 3974.1 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.38% at 13202.4, NYSE closes at 15731.14 up 0.39%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.02% at 1.39616. The USDJPY up 0.04% at 108.878. The USDCHF up 0.07% at 0.92308. EURUSD down 0.07% at 1.19687, EUR/GBP down 0.03% at 0.85724. The USD/CNY down 0.13% at 6.4947, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures up 0.37% at $1,750.90. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 1.08% to $26.530 per ounce, Platinum up 0.52% at $1220.78 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.99% to $2,600.50.

    Crude Oil down on Thursday; Brent crude oil down 0.19% to $67.62 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 0.14% at $64.80.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 58851.98 down 0.08%, Ethereum at 1825.48 up 0.23%, Litecoin at 206.91 up 0.53%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    GENERAL MOTORS up 5.13% at $60.05, DOW Inc up 4.479% at $66.01, UNITED AIRLINES up 4.414% at $62.45, COMCAST Corp. down 0.93% at $57.50, FACEBOOK Inc. at 1.694% at $284.01, AMGEN Inc. up 1.644% at $244.27, 3M Co. up 0.776% at $188.3.

    Economic news:

    US: The global economy is set to grow by 4.7% this year thanks to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the United States, a report by the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday, revising up its previous forecast of 4.3%.

    The upwards revision from its previous forecast made last September factors in an expected boost in U.S. consumer spending on the back of progress distributing COVID-19 vaccines and a vast stimulus package, the report said.

    “The global recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to continue through 2021, albeit with a good deal of unevenness and unpredictability, reflecting epidemiological, policy and coordination uncertainties,” the report said.

    Eurozone: The Bank of England will probably try on Thursday to keep a lid on expectations that Britain’s economy is heading for a strong, vaccine-boosted recovery after suffering its worst crash in three centuries last year.

    The central bank is not expected to change its huge, crisis-fighting stimulus programme at 1200 GMT, after its March policy meetings.

    Instead, investors will be trying to gauge how confident it is that Europe’s fastest COVID-19 vaccination campaign and yet more spending and tax cuts in finance minister Rishi Sunak’s March 3 budget will trigger a bounce-back in the months ahead.

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday he was more optimistic about the recovery. But he stressed his view came “with a large dose of caution” with Britain still in the grip of a third lockdown and facing the risk of new COVID-19 variants.

    Important Data: US Initial Jobless Claims today at 8:30 this time estimated 700K, previously which was 712K. AUSTRALIA Retail Sales (MoM) today at 20:30 previously which was 0.5%. UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) today at 8:00 this time estimated 0.1%, previously which was 0.1%. EURO ZONE Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q4) today at 6:00 previously which was 2.2%.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.39845, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.40 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.39438

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.19748, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.19491 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.19979

    USDJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 108.822, TAKE PROFIT AT 109.006 AND STOP LOSS AT 108.614

    USDCHF

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.92214, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.91984 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.92407

    NIKKEI 225

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 30074.00 TAKE PROFIT AT 30266 AND STOP LOSS AT 29912

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 64.30 TAKE PROFIT AT 64.93 AND STOP LOSS AT 63.74

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1750.12, TAKE PROFIT AT 1764.34 AND STOP AT 1723.69

    BTC USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 58768 TAKE PROFIT AT 60437 AND STOP AT 57455.13
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    GERMAN COMPOSITE PMI March 24, 2021
    Country of release - Germany

    What does the data mean to the market? Purchasing managers indexes (PMI’s) are a survey taken from the top business purchasing managers in a country's largest companies. They give a forward-looking indicator of how a section of a countries economy is looking. A higher PMI score indicates growth and expansion, more output which is great for the economy, jobs overall market, and increased revenues. Therefore a higher number than forecast is positive for the EUR, and I would BUY the EUR A lower than expected forecast figure has the reverse effect. And I would SELL the EUR.

    The entire formula on how PMI is calculated can be found here:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers'_Index Anything above the magic number of 50 means growth; anything below 50 means a decline in output.

    Historic Deviations and Their Outcomes

    Feb 2021
    There were huge deviations in manufacturing, but with the service’s data, the deviations conflicted! Likely to be linked to Covid19 and Brexit, Germany's services sector has pushed more into the spotlight than before. Once a minor, unimportant line of data is now crucial! So we saw minimal movement; we wouldn’t have even covered the spreads.

    See charts → https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28848;t=2021-02-19;r=M1

    Jan 2021, A significant conflict on services corrupted the move. Providing zero opportunity for a trade.
    See charts →
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=28848;t=2021-02-19;r=M1

    Today’s Forecasts
    Manufacturing PMI= 60.5
    Services PMI = 46.5
    Composite = PMI 51.6

    Today’s Trade Plan

    Although this news is very relevant to the market and forward-looking, the EU’s failure to vaccinate their population has meant that at the time of writing this plan, Germany and France look to be locking down once more to try to stop the spread of Covid19. Therefore how can the market be bullish on any positive data collected before the current news of another potential lockdown, Any optimism the data shows must indeed be sidelined. Instead, I will only trade negative data. If things were bad before the lockdown announcements, now they are only going to be worse. Therefore look for deviations of 2.0 on all 3 lines in the same direction to create a tradeable move.

    Tradable Pairs - EURUSD and EURJPY

    Good Look
    James Thatcher
     
  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    8,529
    Likes Received:
    2,995
    Hey james, if you are a real person and not some cut n paste bot...

    The people using this forum are 99% US focused.

    Posting German and Turkish CPI numbers is a gigantic waste of your time.
     
  9. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 24 MARCH 2021
    Asia Pacific stocks were mostly down Wednesday morning. The Shanghai composite is down 1.36% at 3,365.20. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.09% at 352.65. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 2.24% to 27,842. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 down 1.80% at 28,300, while the Topix index is down 2.04% at 1919.0. South Korea’s Kospi down 0.31% to 2995.55. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.50% at 6778.8.

    European equities Tuesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.03% up at 1465762.02, CAC 40 futures down 0.39% at 5945.3 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.40% at 6,699.2.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.94% at 32423.2, the S&P 500 down 0.76% to 3910.5 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.53% at 13017.8, NYSE closes at 15346.52 down 1.32%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD down 0.24% at 1.37124. The USDJPY down 0.06% at 108.503. The USDCHF up 0.05% at 0.93448. EURUSD down 0.05% at 1.18420, EUR/GBP up 0.31% at 0.86353. The USD/CNY up 0.14% at 6.5254, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures up 0.26% at $1,731.58. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.21% to $25.123 per ounce, Platinum up 0.25% at $1169.38 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.10% to $2,604.50.

    Crude Oil mix on Wednesday; Brent crude oil up 0.96% to $60.98 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 0.94% at $63.16.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 53766.76 down 1.09%, Ethereum at 1662.92 down 0.43%, Litecoin at 190.00 up 2.11%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    NETFLIX Inc. up 2.29% at $535.09, GAP Inc. down 7.715% at $27.87, INTEL Corp. down 3.276% at $63.48, DOW Inc. down 4.346% at $60.75, BOEING Co. down 3.973% at $241.25, GOLDMAN SACHS at 2.228% at $331.77, HONEYWELL Inter. down 1.669% at $208.59, JP MORGAN Chase down 1.0% at $149.46.

    Economic news:

    US: The U.S. Treasury said on Tuesday it would issue further guidance on a contested provision in President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package that prohibits states from using stimulus money to replace revenue lost to tax cuts.

    The provision has drawn criticism from 21 Republican state attorneys general, with Ohio’s top lawyer suing the Biden administration last week, arguing that broad language in the American Rescue Plan Act violated the state’s constitutional right to determine its own tax policies.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a written response to those concerns: “It is well established that Congress may place such reasonable conditions on how states may use federal funding.”

    “Nothing in the act prevents states from enacting a broad variety of tax cuts,” Yellen said, refuting the attorneys general arguments that the stimulus measure denies states the ability to cut taxes in any manner whatsoever.

    Eurozone: The City of London may be better off staying out of the EU’s financial services market as it would have to sacrifice autonomy over setting rules to win full access, a report by Britain’s upper house of parliament said on Wednesday.

    The European Union has yet to grant Britain direct financial market access after it left the bloc on Dec. 31 and large amounts of trading in stocks and derivatives denominated in euros has shifted to Amsterdam from London.

    Brussels will consider whether to grant full access, known as equivalence, once it has agreed a memorandum of understanding with Britain on a new forum for cooperating on financial rules, an agreement that is due by the end of March.

    “We agree that broad positive equivalence determinations would best meet the needs of practitioners in both the UK and the EU, but recognise that in many areas the EU is unlikely to grant these without the UK sacrificing more decision-making autonomy than equivalence is worth,” the lawmaker’s report said.

    Important Data: UK CPI (YoY) (Feb) today at 3:00 this time estimated 0.8%, previously which was 0.7%. UK Services PMI (Mar) today at 5:30 previously which was 49.5. US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) today at 8:30 this time estimated 0.6%, previously which was 1.3%. US Crude Oil Inventories today at 10:30 previously which was 2.396M.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37065, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.36733 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.37510

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.18390, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.18059 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18689

    EURGBP

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.86324, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.86653 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.86013

    EURJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 128.516, TAKE PROFIT AT 128.232 AND STOP LOSS AT 128.747

    FTSE 100

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 6666.6 TAKE PROFIT AT 6628.8 AND STOP LOSS AT 6698.1

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 58.33 TAKE PROFIT AT 57.22 AND STOP LOSS AT 59.11

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1729.74, TAKE PROFIT AT 1723.24 AND STOP AT 1739.21

    BTC USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 55424 TAKE PROFIT AT 53707 AND STOP AT 56590
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  10. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 25 MARCH 2021
    Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up Thursday morning. The Shanghai composite is down 0.07% at 3,364.65. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.59% at 355.90. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 0.01% to 27,873. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.45% at 28,600, while the Topix index is up 1.54% at 1942.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.27% to 3004.71. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.17% at 6790.6.

    European equities Wednesday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.35% down at 14610.39, CAC 40 futures up 0.03% at 5947.3 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.20% at 6,712.9.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.01% at 32420.1, the S&P 500 down 0.55% to 3889.1 and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.09% at 12825.2, NYSE closes at 15276.56 down 0.46%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.034% at 1.36875. The USDJPY up 0.24% at 108.977. The USDCHF up 0.03% at 0.93592. EURUSD up 0.03% at 1.18160, EUR/GBP up 0.07% at 0.86328. The USD/CNY up 0.14% at 6.5335, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures up 0.02% at $1,734.37. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.09% to $25.060 per ounce, Platinum up 0.11% at $1168.83 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.09% to $2,632.50.

    Crude Oil mix on Thursday; Brent crude oil down 1.78% to $63.01 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.49% at $63.47.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 53053.23 up 1.46%, Ethereum at 1594.88 up 0.71%, Litecoin at 177.42 up 0.70%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    ETSY Inc. down 9.328% at $199.18, DISCOVERY Inc. down 13.415% at $54.54, TESLA Inc. down 4.816% at $630.27, EBAY Inc. down 4.427% at $57.64, FINSERV Inc. up 1.616% at $123.25, BAIDU Inc. down 8.549% at $239.19, WORKDAY Inc. down 4.398% at $246.07, JD.Com Inc. down 5.317% at $79.07.

    Economic news:

    US: San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Wednesday said the U.S. economy is a “long way” from its goals, as she noted little upward pressure on wages and remarked on the absence of froth in financial conditions, all suggestive of support for keeping the Fed’s foot on the monetary gas pedal.

    Asked her view of the appropriate timing for the Fed’s first interest rate hike, however, Daly declined to say. She told reporters on a call that what’s important is that people “completely understand” the Fed won’t raise rates until employment shortfalls have been eliminated and inflation is not only running at 2% but is also projected to exceed that for some time. “We are not there yet,” she said. “The important thing right now, I think for everyone, is a healthy dose of patience.”

    Eurozone: Danish toymaker Lego on Wednesday won the backing of Europe’s second-highest court in its fight to secure design rights for its colourful snap-together plastic building bricks familiar to millions of children worldwide.

    The Luxembourg-based General Court threw out a 2019 decision by the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) that sided with German toy and hardware maker Delta Sport Handelskontor which had sought to declare Lego’s design invalid.

    Lego challenged that ruling at the court, which on Wednesday disagreed with the trademark agency’s assessment.

    “EUIPO erroneously declared invalid a design of a brick of a LEGO toy building set,” judges said.

    “EUIPO failed to examine the relevance of the application of the exception relied on by Lego and failed to take into consideration all the features of appearance of the brick,” they said.

    Important Data: US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) today at 8:30 this time estimated 4.1%, previously which was 33.4%. US Initial Jobless Claims today at 8:30 this time estimated 730K, previously which was 770K. JAPAN Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) today at 19:30 this time estimated -0.2%, previously which was -0.3%. JAPAN CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Mar) today at 19:30 previously which was 0.1%.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.36856, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.36500 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.37510

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.18119, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17682 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18670

    GBPJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 149.0, TAKE PROFIT AT 148.098 AND STOP LOSS AT 149.616

    CHFJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 116.337, TAKE PROFIT AT 116.050 AND STOP LOSS AT 116.543

    NASDAQ 100

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 12807.24 TAKE PROFIT AT 12718.19 AND STOP LOSS AT 12922.10

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 60.26 TAKE PROFIT AT 59.30 AND STOP LOSS AT 61.24

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1733.21, TAKE PROFIT AT 1716.98 AND STOP AT 1745.15

    LITECOIN USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 174.15 TAKE PROFIT AT 164.62 AND STOP AT 180.30
     
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    Country of release - Mexico


    What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on MXN Pairs and vice versa.


    Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
    Nov 2020, Saw an 18 basis point (bps) hike from the average forecast, which created 546 pips in 1 min, which meant 30 pips per 1Bps!

    +0.25 bps above the rounded forecast,

    See charts→

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=24308;t=2020-11-12;r=M1



    Aug 2019, Saw a +25 bps hike from the average forecast, which was a lovely move!

    See charts→

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1O3I9TTE.


    Today’s Forecast

    The forecast is 4%
    Hi = 4.0
    Low = 3.75
    Avg = 3.93
    Median = 4
    16 out of 23 economists say there is no chance of a cut to the rate today. That's a 70% chance of no change.

    Today’s Trade Plan
    Hopefully, today if we see: -
    -0.25 cut today would be 18 bps, so maybe expect 18x30=540 pips

    +0.25 hike would be 32bps, so maybe expect 32x30= 960 pips

    These are just estimates, though!


    Tradable Pairs

    USDMXN or EURMXN
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    8,529
    Likes Received:
    2,995
    Final warning before you are banned.

    Respond to this post to let me know you are not some bot.
     
    Rustic1 likes this.
  13. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 26 MARCH 2021
    Asian shares bounced back from a three-month low on Friday. The Shanghai composite is up 1.37% at 3,409.31. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.46% at 357.50. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 1.15% to 28,176. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.33% at 29,000, while the Topix index is up 1.21% at 1966.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 0.80% to 3032.45. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.60% at 6831.1.

    European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.08% down at 14621.36, CAC 40 futures up 0.09% at 5952.4 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.57% at 6,674.8.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.62% at 32619.5, the S&P 500 up 0.52% to 3909.5 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.14% at 12780.5, NYSE closes at 15410.37 up 0.88%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.20% at 1.37580. The USDJPY up 0.08% at 109.266. The USDCHF up 0.08% at 0.94017. EURUSD up 0.10% at 1.17751, EUR/GBP down 0.05% at 0.85587. The USD/CNY up 0.07% at 6.5424, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures down 0.04% at $1,725.93. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.16% to $25.078 per ounce, Platinum up 0.56% at $1153.41 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.79% to $2,630.72.

    Crude Oil down on Friday; Brent crude oil down 1.08% to $62.47 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is down 6.95% at $59.06.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 52477.96 up 2.24%, Ethereum at 1618.39 up 2.03%, Litecoin at 174.99 up 2.03%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    GAP Inc. up 5.007% at $28.73, WESTROCK Co. up 4.937% at $51.86, LENNAR Corp. up 4.744% at $99.14, AMERICAN AIRLINES. up 4.402% at $22.77, MSCI Inc. down 2.825% at $412.05, NIKE Inc. down 3.394% at $128.64, BIOGEN Inc. up 3.116% at $273.97, NETFLIX Inc. down 3.447% at $502.86.

    Economic news:

    US: The U.S. Senate confirmed the nomination of Wally Adeyemo as deputy secretary of the Treasury on Thursday, making him the first Black American to hold the powerful job.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen welcomed the Senate vote, calling Adeyemo “a master of shuttle economic diplomacy” who would help meld U.S. economic and national security interests.

    Adeyemo, 39, has struck a hard-line tone on China, vowing to fight what he called Beijing’s “unfair economic practices” and hold China accountable to international rules.

    Adeyemo will play a key role in shaping U.S. economic policy on issues ranging from financial regulation to relief for everyday Americans and U.S. sanctions on foreign governments.

    A former senior adviser at asset manager BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) and the child of Nigerian immigrants, Adeyemo served as a top national security and economic adviser to Democratic former President Barack Obama and held senior jobs at the Treasury.

    Yellen said Adeyemo was also “a tireless advocate for the working class” who helped build the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

    Eurozone: The European Union’s plan to take on joint debt on a large scale and channel the money to member states worst hit by COVID-19 will create an important tool to overcome the crisis, but it must remain a one-off event, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday.

    She spoke to the Bundestag lower house of parliament before it voted to approve the legislation for the EU plan. The upper house, or Bundesrat, is expected to pass it on Friday.

    “In the debate today, it will be made clear again that the recovery fund is a one-off instrument limited in time and purpose,” Merkel said, adding that it was an “indispensable” tool to help overcome the COVID-19 economic crisis.

    Important Data: UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) today at 3:00 this time estimated 2.1%, previously which was -8.2%. UK German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) today at 5:00 this time estimated 93.2, previously which was 92.4. US Federal Budget today previously which was -430.0B. EUROZONE Leaders’ Summit today at 6:00.

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37572, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37278 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.37733

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.17750, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17496 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.17953

    USDJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 109.229, TAKE PROFIT AT 109.648 AND STOP LOSS AT 108.908

    USDCHF

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.93968, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.94267 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.93164

    DJ EURO STOXX 50

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 3796 TAKE PROFIT AT 3813 AND STOP LOSS AT 3778

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 59.24 TAKE PROFIT AT 58.51 AND STOP LOSS AT 60.27

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1733.21, TAKE PROFIT AT 1716.98 AND STOP AT 1745.15

    BTC USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 52792 TAKE PROFIT AT 51785.94 AND STOP AT 53707.74
     
  14. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 29 MARCH 2021
    Asian shares up on Monday. The Shanghai Composite is up 1.63% at 3,418.32. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.98% at 360.85. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index down 0.13% to 28,253. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.17% at 29,440, while the Topix index is up 1.17% at 1966.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 1.09% to 3041.01. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.49% at 6824.2.

    European equities Friday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.87% up at 14748.94, CAC 40 futures up 0.61% at 5988.8 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. up 0.99% at 6,640.6.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1.39% at 33072.9, the S&P 500 up 1.66% to 3974.5 and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.55% at 12979.1, NYSE closes at 15682.53 up 1.77%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.37% at 1.37814. The USDJPY up 0.45% at 109.669. The USDCHF down 0.06% at 0.93889. EURUSD up 0.25% at 1.17930, EUR/GBP down 0.17% at 0.85483. The USD/CNY up 0.05% at 6.5412, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures down 0.24% at $1,730.90. Elsewhere, Silver futures up 0.04% to $25.046 per ounce, Platinum up 3.27% at $1184.50 per ounce, and Palladium up 2.51% to $2,675.00.

    Crude Oil up on Monday; Brent crude oil up 4.16% to $64.37 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 4.17% at $61.52.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 56203.11 up 0.65%, Ethereum at 1716.18 up 0.15%, Litecoin at 185.83 up 0.91%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    HP Inc. up 5.922% at $31.66, NUCOR Corp. up 8.899% at $79.30, TESLA Inc. down 3.385% at $618.71, COMCAST Corp. down 1.989% at $55.18, MICROCHIP

    Tech. up 5.613% at $155.42, MARVELL Tech. up 4.961% at $46.97, OKTA Inc. down 2.371% at $212.45, MODERNA Inc. down 0.038% at $133.28.

    Economic news:

    US: The United States on Friday blocked Venezuela from proceeding with its dispute over Washington’s sanctions at the World Trade Organization, seizing on the issue to underscore its rejection of Nicolas Maduro as the country’s legitimate president.

    Venezuela had planned to request the formation of a WTO panel to rule on whether sanctions the United States imposed in 2018 and 2019 breached global trading rules.

    The United States asked for the request to be removed, which Venezuela refused to do, prompting the trade body to suspend a meeting about this and other trade matters at the start, a Geneva-based trade official said.

    U.S. Trade Representative spokesman Adam Hodge said the panel request was illegitimate because the Maduro administration did not speak on behalf of the Venezuelan people.

    “The United States will reject any effort by Maduro to misuse the WTO to attack U.S. sanctions aimed at restoring human rights and democracy to Venezuela,” he said in a statement.

    Eurozone: The European Central Bank must remain a key stabilizer of the euro zone economy as the bloc is at risk of suffering longer-term damage from its pandemic-induced double-dip recession, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Saturday.

    A sustained period of low activity reduces labour productivity, weakens corporate balance sheets and saps confidence, leading to a potential downward spiral, Lane said in a speech to the Spring workshop of The European House – Ambrosetti.

    “There is a clear risk of self-fulfilling adverse dynamics taking hold, through which uncertain economic prospects induce households, firms and governments to hold back on expenditure plans, leading to a decline in overall demand that validates the loss in confidence about the future,” he said.

    Hoping to prop up the economy until it is ready to reopen, the ECB has pushed borrowing costs to record lows through copious asset purchases and loans to banks at rates as low as minus 1%.

    Important Data: UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) today at 2:00 previously which was 0.7%. EURO ZONE Business Climate (Mar) today at 5:00 previously which was

    -0.14. French 12-Month BTF Auction today at 10:00 previously which was

    -0.625%. JAPAN Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) today at 19:50 this time estimated -2.8%, previously which was -2.4%. Jobs/applications ratio (Feb) today at 19:30 this time estimated 1.10, previously which was 1.10.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37865, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37486 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38273

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.17891, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17502 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.18080

    EURGBP

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 0.85511, TAKE PROFIT AT 0.85310 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.85959

    EURJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 129.313, TAKE PROFIT AT 129.121 AND STOP LOSS AT 129.555

    NIKKEI 225

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 29376 TAKE PROFIT AT 29613 AND STOP LOSS AT 29150

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 60.70 TAKE PROFIT AT 60.26 AND STOP LOSS AT 61.28

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1732.28, TAKE PROFIT AT 1745.98 AND STOP AT 1719.75

    ETHEREUM

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1715.60 TAKE PROFIT AT 1683.61 AND STOP AT 1757.37
     
  15. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 30 MARCH 2021
    Asian shares were mixed early Tuesday. The Shanghai composite is up 0.61% at 3,456.60. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 0.82% at 362.85. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.93% to 28,650. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 1.13% at 29,410, while the Topix index is up 0.74% at 1976.5. South Korea’s Kospi up 1.07% to 3068.45. Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.33% at 6730.1.

    European equities Monday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.47% up at 14817.72, CAC 40 futures up 0.45% at 6015.5 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.15% at 6,761.1.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.30% at 33171.4, the S&P 500 down 0.09% to 3971.1 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.30% at 12941.7, NYSE closes at 15611.88 down 0.45%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.14% at 1.37769. The USDJPY up 0.16% at 109.957. The USDCHF up 0.06% at 0.93952. EURUSD down 0.01% at 1.17628, EUR/GBP down 0.09% at 0.85382. The USD/CNY up 0.02% at 6.5709, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures down 0.29% at $1,707.04. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.19% to $24.585 per ounce, Platinum down 0.06% at $1172.85 per ounce, and Palladium up 0.12% to $2,539.00.

    Crude Oil mix on Tuesday; Brent crude oil down 0.29% to $64.97 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.99% at $62.13.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 57407.61 down 0.33%, Ethereum at 1798.35 down 1.04%, Litecoin at 190.54 down 1.63%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    FACEBOOK Inc. up 2.756% at $290.82, TWITTER Inc. up 2.742% at $62.94, KRAFT HEINZ Co. up 1.874% at $40.78, PEPSI Co Inc. up 1.479% at $144.81, OKTA Inc. up 1.586% at $215.82, MODERNA Inc. down 7.398% at $123.42, WORKDAY Inc. down 2.62% at $243.12, DOCUSIGN Inc. down 2.258% at $197.4.

    Economic news:

    US: The U.S. Customs has found forced labour practices in Top Glove Corp Bhd’s production of disposable gloves and directed its ports to seize goods from the manufacturer, it said on Monday.

    In a statement overnight, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said it has sufficient information to determine labour abuses at the world’s largest medical glove maker.

    CBP issued an order in July last year that barred imports from two of Top Glove’s subsidiaries on suspicion of labour abuses.

    The ban now extends “to all disposable gloves originating in Top Glove factories in Malaysia,” it told Reuters.

    Top Glove shares fell nearly 5% in early morning trade.

    Top Glove told Reuters its U.S. counsels are liaising with representatives from the CBP to obtain more clarity and information on the matter.

    Eurozone: The European Central Bank must be cautious when it shifts away from its emergency stimulus even if the economy rebounds from the pandemic as predicted, according to outgoing policy maker Vitas Vasiliauskas.

    The Governing Council member and head of Lithuania’s central bank, who steps down from those roles next month, said in an interview that the ECB should draw on its earlier experiences of tightening too soon. That means switching back to more-standard monetary tools only gradually.

    Even after inflation is back to its pre-pandemic trajectory, policy makers will need to keep quantitative easing in place for “quite a while,” he predicted.

    “I don’t think we can allow ourselves to make very sharp changes to our monetary policy, especially having in mind our historic experience,” Vasiliauskas said on Monday. “It would be better to live a little bit longer in the transitional situation.”

    ECB officials have been forced to backtrack in the past decade after capping or withdrawing monetary support too soon. They halted bond purchases at the end of 2018 — only to restart buying within a year as the economy deteriorated — and were forced to reverse two interest-rate increases in 2011.

    Important Data: US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock today at 16:30 previously which was 2.927M. US S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jan) today at 9:00 this time estimated 11.0%, previously which was 10.1%. US CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) today at 10:00 this time estimated 96.9, previously which was 91.3. JAPAN Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) today at 19:50 this time estimated -1.2%, previously which was 4.3%.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.37671, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.37141 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38503

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.17572, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17179 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.17993

    GBPJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 151.390, TAKE PROFIT AT 152.121 AND STOP LOSS AT 150.754

    CHFJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 116.981, TAKE PROFIT AT 116.765 AND STOP LOSS AT 117.215

    DOW JONES

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 33074 TAKE PROFIT AT 33164 AND STOP LOSS AT 32993

    WTI CRUDE OIL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 61.37 TAKE PROFIT AT 61.02 AND STOP LOSS AT 61.73

    GOLD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1703.85, TAKE PROFIT AT 1699.61 AND STOP AT 1709.27

    LITECOIN USD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 192.55 TAKE PROFIT AT 186.23 AND STOP AT 199.47
     
  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    United States Crude Oil Inventories March 31 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?


    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.


    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



    Historic Deviations and Their Outcome


    March 24 2021 - Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?



    See Chart here:

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34656;t=2021-03-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1


    March 17 2021 - Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!


    See Chart here:

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34164;t=2021-03-17 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1


    March 10 2021 - This is an excellent example of why I wouldn't trade when gasoline conflicts with oil.


    See Chart here:

    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33711;t=2021-03-10%2015:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1


    My Forecasts For Today


    DOE Crude Oil Inventories - 2000.00

    DOE Gasoline Inventories - -3000.00




    Today's Trade Plan


    If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from OIl or Brent.


    Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.


    1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = +0107


    2) API Actual Crude = +3900


    3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0730


    4) API Actual Gasoline = -6000


    Tradeable Pairs

    USDBNT

    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!


    Good luck!


    James Thatcher


    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    Hey Stock.Jock.

    Thanks for your comments as I almost always trade an FX pair including the USD (ie USDTRY or EURSD) I would have thought it was in the US's interest, it certainly is on this side of the pond. I'm not a bot. I'm an experienced news trader sharing my trade plans. I'll take your comments on board and apply more emphasis on US reported like tomorrow NFP.

    Thanks James
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2021
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    2
    I've responded to your previous message to confirm I am not a bot. Thanks James
     
  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    8,529
    Likes Received:
    2,995
    Thats exactly what a bot would say! :D
     
  20. CSFX

    CSFX Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2021
    Messages:
    51
    Likes Received:
    3
    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 02 APRIL 2021
    Asian markets were set to open higher on Friday in a holiday-lightened trading session. The Shanghai composite is up 1.54% at 3,471.02. Overall, the Singapore MSCI up 1.97% at 364.40. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index up 0.40% to 28,931. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 up 2.54% at 29,840, while the Topix index is down 0.15% at 1970.0. South Korea’s Kospi up 2.32% to 3111.61. Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.07% at 6828.7.

    European equities Thursday closing. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded up 2.43% at 15107.17, CAC 40 futures up 1.91% at 6103.0 and the UK 100 futures contract in the U.K. down 0.05% at 6,737.3.

    In U.S. on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.24% up at 33153.2, the S&P 500 up 1.14% to 4019.9 and the Nasdaq 100 up 3.01% at 13365.0, NYSE closes at 15752.24 up 0.44%.

    In the Forex market, GBPUSD up 0.43% at 1.38403. The USDJPY up 0.77% at 110.516. The USDCHF up 0.29% at 0.94162. EURUSD down 0.14% at 1.17762, EUR/GBP down 0.48% at 0.85077. The USD/CNY up 0.30% at 6.5608, at the time of writing.

    In the commodity market U.S Gold futures up 0.24% at $1,734.97. Elsewhere, Silver futures down 0.40% to $24.946 per ounce, Platinum up 2.32% at $1211.98 per ounce, and Palladium down 0.30% to $2,667.00.

    Crude Oil up on Friday; Brent crude oil up 0.42% to $64.64 barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) is up 0.47% at $61.81.

    In the Cryptocurrency Markets, BTCUSD at 59485.35 up 6.62%, Ethereum at 1991.66 up 18.09%, Litecoin at 204.27 up 10.81%, at the time of writing.

    TOP STOCKS TO WATCH OUT TODAY:

    HESS Corp. up 5.257% at $74.48, TERADYNE Inc. up 5.86% at $128.81, MICRON TECH. up 4.761% at $92.41, TESLA Inc. down 0.925% at $661.75, MICROSOFT Corp. up 2.791% at $242.35, VISA Inc. up 2.423% at $216.86, APPLE Inc. down 0.696% at $123.00, BOEING Inc. down 0.696% at $252.96.

    Economic news:

    US: U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in March amid increased vaccinations and more pandemic relief money from the government, which would cement expectations for a boom that could push this year’s economic growth to the strongest since 1984.

    The Labour Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show people, mostly women, wading back into the labour market, drawn by those brightening economic prospects. But the labour market is hardly out of the woods yet, with the job’s deficit still huge and long-term unemployment becoming entrenched.

    “The economy is on fire, fuelled by vaccines and government stimulus,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. “All the stars are lined up to surprise us on the upside.”

    Nonfarm payrolls likely surged by 647,000 jobs last month after increasing by 379,000 in February, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That would be the biggest gain since October. Estimates ranged from as low as 115,000 to as high as 1.1 million jobs.

    Friday’s report marks a painful anniversary for the labour market. The March 2020 employment report was the first to reflect the mandatory closures of non-essential businesses such as restaurants, bars and gyms to slow the onset of the just-emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 1.7 million jobs were lost that month, and another 20.7 million would vanish the next.

    Eurozone: Europe should match the ambition shown by the United States with its huge new economic stimulus, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Thursday.

    The new administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is already making payments to households under a new $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package and plans to plough $2.3 trillion into infrastructure investments to fire up the world’s biggest economy.

    “Whatever we may think about it, the American stimulus plan shows ambition, and the return of U.S. ambition is a good thing,” Le Maire said in a speech at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

    “The best response to U.S. ambition isn’t to fight it. It is to match it. Europe needs to challenge itself like America does,” he added.

    While European countries’ support for their economies last year was on par with that seen in the United States, the new U.S. stimulus dwarves the European Union’s 750 billion euro ($881 billion) economic recovery plan.

    Though the 27-nation bloc agreed the landmark stimulus fund last summer, EU governments are still submitting detailed plans on how they aim to spend money from the fund, which many still need to ratify.

    Important Data: US Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) today at 8:30 this time estimated 647K, previously which was 379K. US Unemployment Rate (Mar) today at 8:30 this time estimated 6.0%, previously which was 6.2%. US Government Payrolls (Mar) today at 8:30 previously which was -86K. US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Mar) today at 8:30 this time estimated 4.5%, previously which was 5.33%.

    TECHNICAL SUMMARY

    GBPUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.38305, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.38076 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.38732

    EURUSD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- SELL AT 1.17712, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.17484 AND STOP LOSS AT 1.17918

    GBPJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 152.893, TAKE PROFIT AT 152.997 AND STOP LOSS AT 152.203

    CHFJPY

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 117.338, TAKE PROFIT AT 117.560 AND STOP LOSS AT 117.177

    NASDAQ 100

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 13365.24 TAKE PROFIT AT 13390.13 AND STOP LOSS AT 13339.83

    CADCHF

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 0.74958 TAKE PROFIT AT 0.75229 AND STOP LOSS AT 0.74829

    GBPCAD

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1.73801, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.74087 AND STOP AT 1.73532

    ETHEREUM

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    TRADE SUGGESTION- BUY AT 1995.50 TAKE PROFIT AT 2032.34 AND STOP AT 1979.93
     

Share This Page