Lucid is definitely a crap company also. I feel bad for anyone who pumps money into this company. Tesla will continue to dominate the EV market and established domestic automakers like Ford and GM already have a clear advantage in the market. I could be wrong but as an ex-employee of Lucid Motors I don't understand why anyone would pay their outrageous prices for an unproven product. Not to mention there are only like 5 people who can fix them. So if/when something breaks, be prepared to pay out the ass. I know it is pretty much the same with all EV's right now but Tesla will address this issue by funding/ training their own certified mechanics across the country to bring down the current repair costs.
Getting close to 52wk lows, anybody in this? They are still pushing, here is some latest news of their flagship vehicle: https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/12/l...sive-version-of-its-flagship-ev/?guccounter=1
I don't own Lucid and don't expect to but I believe Lucid has the best chance, out of the long shots, to make it. The odds are still very low. I'm just saying I would tip them for a long shot success, over any of the other EV companies I have been following.
I'm guessing this is about EV specific companies only? What about legacy companies converting to EV? Wouldn't basically all of them have a better shot than any stand-alone EV companies (besides Tesla of course)?
Im seeing a lot of Hyundia Ioniq 5's on the roads, enough that I recognize the brand from the shape. When was the last time you recognized a Hyundai? The Mustang EVs are sold out, no more stock until next year... Tesla has the lead, but they are going to start seeing a lot of competition. If LCID screws it up this early in the game, they don't deserve to be around in 10yrs.
Not in my opinion. Five years ago, the narrative was the biggest auto makers will take notice of Tesla one day, make a bunch of electric cars, and put Tesla out of business. Well, they've taken notice and are falling further behind with time. Meanwhile, VW is talking about a $20k car. That will surely out Tesla out of business.... Claims the mantra. It is far more likely to put VW out of business than Tesla. Lucid is seems to be going in the right direction. They need to develop their technology and push for efficiency. Over time, they will need to lower their manufacturing costs. That will be them pulling the sword from the stone, if they can do it.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, even though I greatly respect your opinion in this field since you were way ahead of everyone else and have been for the years you've been on here. I see the big 3 and foreign automakers slower transition to EV's as a more viable strategy than LCID. I think most people are basically going to follow one of two paths when it comes to EV's. 1. I want a car made by a company specializing in EV's. TSLA is now a proven brand and let the charge in EV's, I'll go with them. Not gonna take my chance on some start-up tesla knock-off. 2. I want brand recognition, and I've been buying this brand my whole life. I liked my ICE car, then my hybrid, I think I'll buy their electric car over some smaller trendy brand. I think anyone who wants to buy an electric car is either going with the known commodity at this point, or waiting for their favorite auto-maker to make one. I think people who would consider LCID all fall in the first line of thought, where they'd only be taking market share from Tesla.
I missed the point at which we disagree? You think Lucid is going to fail. I think Lucid is going to fail. The point I was trying to make is the way forward is hyper integration. Tesla's structural battery is an excellent example. 4680 batts are another good one. CyberTruck unibody. Lucid understands this and is doing an OK job in this regard. Margins are really hyper thin so it's going to come down to who can build a car with the least materials and the least labour. There is also a need for efficiency. Lucid did a great job on the efficiency side; perhaps as good as Tesla. Putting a battery pack and electric motor into an F-150 is not the way forward, long term. Having said that, this is exactly what I want. I don't want Tesla's unibody truck that was designed by an HVAC engineer. The CyberTruck is a better design than the e-150, though. The CyberTruck has less parts, material, and probably weighs considerably less. The miss for the CyberTruck is the huge tires and brick like aerodynamics. Aero is probably not as bad as it looks, particularly with the roll top box lid. I speculate it's better than an e-150. IMO, going the right direction is designing a car that requires 1200 manufacturing steps, then revising it several times so it can be built with 1000 steps, prior to production. Once in production, people need to be working on revising that design down to 900 steps for the next generation. Lowered complexity. Reduced materials. If margins were fat, it would be more about sales. In this EV environment, it's all about build cost.
Please allow me to be more specific on what I mean by "long shot for success". 30% chance of being purchased by a company like MBZ, Stellantis, etc. 3% chance of scaling to the size of Tesla and becoming a global player in the EV space
Tesla has changed the game. If Tesla can make a component for $100, they immediately try to figure out how to make that component for $99.50. Tesla is pulling cost from every aspect of every component in their cars. This changes the field and what is required to compete in the EV industry. In this sense, Tesla is consuming all of the oxygen. GM and Ford do not have the scale or discipline to compete with Tesla. They will have to sell low volume products at premium prices. The first company to build an EV Van for service industries will inherit a ton of orders. There is crazy pent up demand for this product. If an EV Van is announced (EV Sprinter type of car) by anyone remotely credible, they will have 1M orders within 24 hours. Unfortunately, nobody has the ability to fulfill these orders, including Tesla. Lucid knows all of this. They build a very high end car because they need to sell a low volume product at a premium price. Scaling production will be really, really hard for them.
Gotcha, I understand better after your clarifications now. I thought you were originally saying LCID had a greater chance at survival than GM/Ford/Stellantis, but didn't consider mergers/acquisitions being their path forward. I thought you were giving them a greater chance of survival as a standalone company like Tesla than some of the already big players who are admittedly extremely slow to transition, but I'd consider still GREATLY a favorite to continue existing and succeeding over Lucid.
The reason GM/Ford/Stellantis have similar chance of long term success as Lucid, in my opinion, is the dealer network is hugely biased against EVs. They will spread FUD about EVs for the next decade. Go to a GM dealership and ask a basic question about a Bolt. Watch the lip curling. Listen to the nonsensical response and pivot to why you need to own a gas car. Tesla was right to not use a dealer network.
100% agree. I hate the dealer model. Putting preinstalled "extras" that you cannot negotiate out of "to keep the lights on".
Lucid Group shares are trading higher in sympathy with Rivian Automotive after the company reported Q2 vehicle production and delivery numbers. Jul 6, 2022
I think Lucid is unlikely to make it, to say the least, but I would speculate on Lucid long before I would put one cent into Toyota or GM.
I am confident it is here to stay. Soon, it will be difficult to sell a used gas vehicle, as everyone will want electric. The next revelation will occur when people start to realize it doesn't make sense to electrify every vehicle ever produced. The eco dudes are going to shave their beards in protest. I find people can't handle the idea of multiple solutions to a problem. In the early days, there were people who were upset by the idea of electric cars. At some point, ignorance will cause us to want to electrify vehicles which are not best served by electrification. The best idea is to use a mix of ICE and electric vehicles, at least for the foreseeable future.
