An excellent year of investment everyone! To start this year off right, let me share my thoughts with you. The context The epidemic has spread around the world and changed people's lives for the past year. However, we now know how to regulate the rate of spread, and most importantly, the first vaccines are coming. In industrialized countries, the weakest part of the population should be vaccinated in the first trimester, and vaccines, available to the general population, in the second trimester. The second wave will ebb like the first, with the arrival of fine weather, but by a possible fall we will have a vaccine dam. The return of capital invested in companies active in the context of the crisis (pharmaceuticals, food distribution, DIY, GAFAM) to other sectors, and in particular the big losers such as tourism and aeronautics, is already starting. It should materialize in the first trimester and strengthen in the second. Except bad news on the epidemic management front, of course. In particular, if a new strain of virus emerged that was immune to developed vaccines, the economy would recover for a year of sluggishness. This situation is however unlikely, a dozen vaccines having been developed, using different techniques. By the intervention of central banks, money is easy. Not all businesses benefit equally. From the point of view of public aid, it is obviously the largest groups that have the easiest time to set in motion the procedures necessary to receive funds. The same is true for investments by individuals or institutions. And this is even truer in the United States where the relay of the banks is less strong than in Europe. In addition, in certain sectors such as tourism or catering, for listed companies with equity capital and investor confidence, the current crisis will be an opportunity for strong consolidation due to the bankruptcy of many competing sole proprietorships. Booking, Airbnb, McDonald's or Starbuck will have considerable investment scope from the middle of next year. Investment outlook for the next semester Preliminary remark: each of the stocks mentioned below has undeniable qualities. It is already a selection of stocks between the most resilient and the best performing. The selection I would make among them is a further optimization, but, as long as you have the patience to wait five to ten years, investing in any one of them should be satisfactory. Of course, I remind you that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, etc. Some interesting stocks : * Accenture (IE00B4BNMY34) Resilience: in the median (200). Dividends in the median ($ 3.2 for a stock around $ 250). Accenture resumed its course before the first lockdown. The company is expected to regain activity in the automotive and travel sectors in the second half of 2021, but without more than another management consulting firm. Interesting, but I will favor another stock, such as Sherwin Williams, more resilient, or Home Depot, with a higher dividend. Conclusion: So to keep if you have it, as I do, but not to buy. * Apple (US0378331005) Low resilience (100) but stock with strong growth, maintained following its recent split. Due to its notoriety, the stock should also benefit greatly from the arrival of new liquidity on the market. Be careful, however, whatever the quality of the company, its valuation is notoriously excessive in the long term. Conclusion: To buy, or to keep if you have some, like me. * Booking Holdings Inc. (US7415034039) The highest resilience of our selection (3000). Obviously, the group suffered from the crisis which particularly affected tourism. However, it is now close to its peak. Without the crisis, the stock would have had an even stronger valuation: the second half of 2021 should see the gradual recovery of tourism. The difficulty right now is whether to reposition itself on the stock now or in a few months, as winter may delay the good news on the COVID front. A point of attention: Booking does not pay a dividend. Personally, to form my portfolio, I drastically limit the share of securities without payment of dividends. For those following the same strategy, arbitrage could be carried out between the securities without dividends. Personally, I chose to take the plunge by liquidating my positions on Netflix to reinvest them in Booking. Conclusion: To buy, unless you already have non-dividend-paying securities, in which case you may need to arbitrate between them. * Dassault Systèmes (FR0000130650) Resilience: in the median (200). A company specializing in providing software solutions for the industrial world, the price of Dassault Systèmes (+ 8.64% over one year) has suffered this past year from the impact of the crisis on the activity of its customers. The sky should clear with better visibility of the end of the immediate effects of the health crisis. Many customers will have to undertake optimizations of their production circuit, a specialty of Dassault Systèmes. Conclusion: wait, and keep your memory for the second quarter of 2021. Moreover, if Dassault pays a dividend, it is anecdotal (0.72 € for a stock at 153 €). This is all the more reason not to rush. * Home Depot (US4370761029) Resilience in the median (200). Home Depot offers very respectable dividends ($ 6 for a stock around $ 270). The DIY equipment retailer managed the period of crisis well and its activity remained strong, even slightly benefited from the containment effect with the necessary adaptation of certain homes to teleworking. Regarding the stock's evolution, there is a risk of sagging if the end of the epidemic is confirmed in the middle of next year, but the dividend will compensate. Conclusion: to buy. * Netflix (US64110L1061) Still the biggest gain in its last fifteen years among resilient stocks, despite the drop in its final months. With a resilience of 300, above the median. Netflix will resume. The health crisis has just increased its clientele prematurely, and its value with it. The fall back to school was just a rebalancing. Netflix's problem is a few years away: it is about competition from other GAFAM parties in the online video industry that are lagging behind, but have the power of their own ecosystem. The most serious competitor being Amazon. Conclusion: to buy. * Sartorius Stedim Biotech (FR0013154002) Third highest increase in my selection, over 15 years after Netflix and Booking, the company has obviously benefited from the health crisis. It has excellent fundamentals, but its price has been almost vertical since the first containment (+10% over one year). With a relatively low resilience of 100 (relative to our selection, whose stocks already have strong resilience to the broader market), rebalancing will inevitably happen, the question of when between Q2 and Q3 remains to be seen. It will then be a question of putting his balls back on activities that will emerge from the crisis, such as tourism with Booking. Conclusion: Too risky in my opinion to know exactly when in the next 6 months the rebalancing will take place. Only commit if you accept a potential loss in the coming year. * Sherwin-Williams (US8243481061) Excellent resilience (800). Dividends slightly above the median ($ 5.37 for a price of around $ 730). Like Home Depot, Sherwin-Williams, on a traditional sector (painting) was able to negotiate the crisis. I have them and I keep them. Conclusion: buy if you don't have one. I wish you a happy new year 2021 ! Denico
