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NFLX - Netflix

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Its the first one that most people care about!
     
  2. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Curious about this one.
    DIS and WWE are at ATH.
     
  3. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Closing up Fridays down gap...

    I started watching Umbrella Academy last night, its pretty good!
     
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Netflix slides after beating Q1 subscriber growth estimates but giving weak guidance for the months ahead
     
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Set for a breakout?

    upload_2019-7-11_11-23-56.png
     
  6. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    NFLX got taken out to the wood shed after earnings. Will be interesting to see how it open tomorrow. Was down 12% at one point.
     
  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    There is going to be some downside as some people choose between Disney and other services.

    Its all about that original content going forward.
     
  8. Kat

    Kat Member

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    Netflix plummeted down. From the experience of my trade I know that such movements do not immediately unfold. Probably by inertia Netflix will continue to move down. Red line Tenkan prepares to cross the blue line Kijun from top to bottom. This will indicate a downward trend. Stochastic high, out of the overbought zone and full of bearish potential. Weekly.
    1.png
     
  9. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    I have Netflix on a weekly watch if it can hold the longer term trend.
     
  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    People love round numbers. I wonder if $300 will act as support.

    upload_2019-7-22_11-37-34.png
     
  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Just bought 26 shares of NFLX. Acting under the premise that $300 will be support.
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    People love support!
     
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    In danger of losing this uptrend.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    ^ It's probably going to break it . A conservative figure count gives 240 but I'd bet that it will only pause there and continue to 141.

    upload_2019-9-12_20-48-13.png
     
    #354 Onepoint272, Sep 12, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
    T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    141, wow that's a bold prediction for a company the size of Netflix, being watched in just about every household in America.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  16. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe you hit on its problem, everyone who's ever thought about watching is watching. It's currently trading at a P/E of about 114 on current earnings of 2.57. At a price of 141 the P/E at current earnings would be about 55. Fifty five years to double your money? That's like a 1.27% annual return. Seems to me, at a price of 141 you'd still be paying for a lot of blue sky... but what do I know about such things...not much. I'm just reading the market by its own actions.
     
    #356 Onepoint272, Sep 13, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
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  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Fair enough. Just seemed like a big drop in a market that won't die.
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Well there it is, the drop below 280.
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Netflix (NFLX) Round Trip
    Mon, Sep 23, 2019

    It's been quite a drama for Netflix (NFLX) in 2019. After being up nearly 50% YTD with one of the best performances in the S&P 500 back in early May, NFLX has given up all of its gains, falling by nearly a third and putting the stock in the red for the year.

    [​IMG]

    While the last five months have been pretty disastrous for Netflix (NFLX), it isn't even the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 since it's closing high on 5/3. The table below lists the 19 S&P 500 components that have declined more than 25% since 5/3. Topping the list is DXC Technology (DXC), which has lost just under half of its value. Behind DXC, Align Technology (ALGN) is the only other S&P 500 stock that is down over 40% since 5/3. Outside of these two names, other notable names on the list of losers include retailers and retail-related names like Macy's (M), Gap (GPS), PVH, Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Ralph Lauren (RL), Kohl's (KSS), L Brands (LB), and Capri Holdings (CPRI).

    [​IMG]

    During the same span that Netflix (NFLX) has been giving up its YTD gains, a number of stocks have done quite well. The table below shows the 25 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up over 20% since NFLX's closing high for the year. While the list of biggest losers is littered with retail-related names, Target (TGT) actually tops the list of winners with a gain of over 40%. As far as themes are concerned, though, the names are spread out across practically every different sector. Of the 25 names listed n the table, the only sector not represented is Energy, and besides Health Care which has five stocks on the list, no other sector accounts for more than three of the S&P 500's top performers.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Netflix (NFLX) Earnings On Deck
    Wed, Oct 16, 2019

    The charts of the FAANG stocks have left something to be desired over the past several months. Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is a prime example. The stock managed to recover nearly all of its late 2018 losses in the first half of 2019, but it gave up the ghost in the wake of July's earnings report when the company missed subscriber estimates. NFLX has remained in a downtrend in the months since with a recent lower low around support near last November's lows. Granted, this recent low was still 8.9% above the 52-week low from Christmas Eve of last year. Now at the top of this downtrend, NFLX reports earnings once again tonight after the close and given its historical volatility around earnings, the stock has an opportunity to either break out or break down.

    [​IMG]

    Although the 10.27% one-day decline in response to the last quarter's report that preceded NFLX's recent downtrend may sound bad, the move was basically par for the course. Netflix is one of the most volatile stocks on earnings with shares averaging an absolute move the day after earnings of 12.78% across all quarters since 2002. So last quarter's decline was actually smaller than the average! As shown in the table from our Earnings Explorer tool below, that was the worst full-day decline in reaction to earnings since Q2 2016, but there was actually a larger gap down at the open just one year prior in July of 2018; although most of that decline was regained intraday. Headed into tomorrow, it should come as no surprise to investors if the stock swings wildly regardless of what the results of the quarter are. EPS is estimated to come in at $1.05 and sales are expected to grow to $5,247.5 million.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at the historical trends of NFLX's beat rates, last quarter's revenue miss could have been expected. NFLX has only exceeded Q2 revenue estimates 33% of the time. The other three quarters have much stronger beat rates. As for today, the third quarter's revenue beat rate is the second strongest at 70.59%, only behind the first quarter's 76.47% beat rate. When Netflix has beaten revenue estimates in the third quarter, it has averaged a one-day share price gain of 2.74% with the stock positive two-thirds of the time. On the other hand, when there is a revenue miss in the third quarter, the stock has always declined, averaging -12.3%.

    With regards to EPS beat rates, Netflix most consistently exceeds expectations in the fourth quarter having done so 94.12% of the time. Other quarters are a bit weaker in the low-80% range. For the third quarter, as with the first quarter, NFLX has beaten EPS 82.35% of the time.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at the average stock price reaction to earnings, last quarter's decline again could have been expected as the second quarter has averaged the largest gap down, decline from open to close, and full-day decline of any quarter. Third-quarter results have only been slightly better as NFLX averages a gap down of 2.8% and a full day decline of 1.17%. One silver lining, though, is that the third quarter is the only quarter that has seen the stock rise on average (1.4%) from the open to the close after its initial opening gap. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter has typically seen the strongest overall performance with an average gap up of 12.4% and full-day gain of 11.2%.

    [​IMG]
     
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