Poll: Are we in a recession?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by emmett kelly, Jul 29, 2022.

?

are we in a recession?

  1. yes

    10 vote(s)
    76.9%
  2. no

    2 vote(s)
    15.4%
  3. the circus called. the carnival barker is having an affair with your wife.

    1 vote(s)
    7.7%
  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG] many interpretations of a recession floating around out there. what say you?
     
    #1 emmett kelly, Jul 29, 2022
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2022
  2. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    I voted yes. I am not buying into all of the verbal judo as of late about the "technical" definition argument. My opinion...we have survived it before and we will survive it again. Lets just get on with fixing the issues and continue to move the US forward...together.
     
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  3. Spud

    Spud Active Member

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    Nope.
    I'm up 16% in a week on Tesla. :booyah: Economy is strong, just bruised a little. Have a ice cold Billy Beer and watch the show.
     
    #3 Spud, Jul 29, 2022
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2022
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  4. Spud

    Spud Active Member

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    Screenshot_20220729-165723_Webull.jpg
     
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  5. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Arbitrary "recession" definitions mean nothing. The question is "will the economy be better or worse in 3 months?" I say worse.
     
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  6. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    ECRI Weekly Leading Index says things will get worse in the next few months.
     

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  7. Spud

    Spud Active Member

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    It will be a interesting 3 months.

    Screenshot_20220801-134115_Facebook.jpg
     
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  8. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Both Q1 and Q2 Real GDP had negative growth. If Q3 is down then there is big trouble. If Q3 bounces up then everything will be back to peachy keen again.

    Real Gross Domestic Product.png
     
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  9. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Should you want to examine GDP without inflation adjustments, here is an image.
     

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  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    There are two questions floating through this topic.

    1) Are we in a recession? -> No

    2) Will we be better or worse off in 3 months? -> I don't know

    I will say this: I think some bad stuff is going to go down in Q4 and Q1. There are too many companies that are coming off two or three bad quarters. Their balance sheets are going to start looking pretty red by the end of the year and that will trigger layoffs, etc. Of course, that doesn't mean we are in a recession. Things seem to be going surprisingly well, all things considered.

    As always, I am doing nothing to brace for the end of the world.

    Tom's strategy: Lead with your chin and do your best to not have a glass jaw. :biggrin:
     
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  11. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Isn't that the only question that matters going forward.
     
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  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Not to me.

    It is a question I cannot answer. I'm not even convicted enough in my concern about the end of year when companies passing 4 consecutive down quarters and axing employees in wholesale quantities, as they would have in any other earnings pull back. We could slide by these problems with little impact.

    I simply don't know what will happen in that detail and I do not believe anyone else does, either. At least, not with the certainty necessary to make a portfolio adjustment.

    A year from now, I could easily be worth less than I am today but I will be happy as long as I own good companies. I'd far rather own a good company than have cash.

    Full disclosure: I haven't sold a thing, nor do I plan to, but I have my DRIPs turned off and we are building our near cash position.
     
    #12 TomB16, Aug 2, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2022
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  13. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Here is an interesting chart I created using FRED series GDP and GDPC1 to calculate the inflation numbers the FED has been using. In the 80s Volcker had to "kill" the economy to remove this much inflation.

    Inflation.png
     
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  14. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    let's get a temperature check on this one.
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I still say no recession.

    Employment keeps rising, so how is the economy supposed to contract?

    AMD's big miss? A +30% increase from last year, instead of the ridiculous +50% that they were hyping. +30% in a recession?

    There is a slowdown in growth, but a recession is supposed to be shrinking.

    Looking for a recession in ~2 years, since we've got the yield curve inversion recently.
     
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