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Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by emmett kelly, Jun 24, 2022.
this is a time sensitive poll obviously, so let's give it about a month. what say you?
Think we get a bounce for the next month, then go back lower to make the bottom.
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I think we are probably close but
and just to get it on the record, i voted yes.
Voted no. Will be interesting to come back to this later.
Don't think so.
I see SPY and QQQ go down to another -25%.
I voted No.
3600-3700 seems like a reasonable bottom. But I could see us even dipping below that possibly as low as 3,500.
An equally important question is WHEN will we bottom. I think that could happen as early as November 2022. Energy prices (gas, heating/ac, etc) are going to catch up to the consumer. (well, they already are but people are mostly able to pay them and shrug it off for now)
I've learned that I cannot predict crashes and short term pricing with much accuracy, so I don't think about these things. To a large extent, the market is a function of investor sentiment so polls like this provide great insight. Thank you to all who have participated.
I'm in uncharted waters. The WBI is 158.5. That would be really high normally but it has been 212 recently so it's way off peak. I would normally look at anything below 100 as sell a kidney and buy anything not bolted down, below 120 as a strong buy, below 145 as normal, and up to 155 or 160 as the maximum sustainable.
Those numbers went out the window years ago. They are no longer remotely valid. So, my view is this could be the bottom, the market could drop 50+% of it's current value, or something in between. A magic 8 ball would be more helpful than my blank stare.
The Lynch market PE froth indicator is a bit more decisive in showing there is room for downward movement so that is the best info I have. Those who subscribe to the Lynch point of view are probably keeping large amounts of dry powder, at this point in time. Of course, they will have been out of the market for many years so they won't have a lot of powder dry or wet.
yes, for the purposes of this poll let's use the S&P 500 and call 3600 the bottom. also, the question should read "has" the market bottomed, not "have". this ain't great britain. editing a poll question is not allowed.
So, by our judgments/ guesses , we have about another 8-9% room for correction. Guess we shall see how it plays out.
I just cant see how this could possibly be the bottom. I understand the market prices in the future forecast but there havent really been any solutions to any of our problems. I dont see things getting worse before they get better. And with that, a lot of capital will be liquidated and removed from the markets.
well, boys and girls, ladies and germs, as of today 2 people have voted yes. we're coming up on one month. wake up the fat lady.
I still believe we need to at least get back to the pre-COVID high...but in all honesty, a kiss (or pierce) of that ascending support TL on the SPX Weekly is where I believe we're ultimately going. Sorry I cannot draw it here, but I have drawn it elsewhere.