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Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by emmett kelly, Jun 24, 2022.
this is a time sensitive poll obviously, so let's give it about a month. what say you?
Think we get a bounce for the next month, then go back lower to make the bottom.
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I think we are probably close but
and just to get it on the record, i voted yes.
Voted no. Will be interesting to come back to this later.
Don't think so.
I see SPY and QQQ go down to another -25%.
I voted No.
3600-3700 seems like a reasonable bottom. But I could see us even dipping below that possibly as low as 3,500.
An equally important question is WHEN will we bottom. I think that could happen as early as November 2022. Energy prices (gas, heating/ac, etc) are going to catch up to the consumer. (well, they already are but people are mostly able to pay them and shrug it off for now)
I've learned that I cannot predict crashes and short term pricing with much accuracy, so I don't think about these things. To a large extent, the market is a function of investor sentiment so polls like this provide great insight. Thank you to all who have participated.
I'm in uncharted waters. The WBI is 158.5. That would be really high normally but it has been 212 recently so it's way off peak. I would normally look at anything below 100 as sell a kidney and buy anything not bolted down, below 120 as a strong buy, below 145 as normal, and up to 155 or 160 as the maximum sustainable.
Those numbers went out the window years ago. They are no longer remotely valid. So, my view is this could be the bottom, the market could drop 50+% of it's current value, or something in between. A magic 8 ball would be more helpful than my blank stare.
The Lynch market PE froth indicator is a bit more decisive in showing there is room for downward movement so that is the best info I have. Those who subscribe to the Lynch point of view are probably keeping large amounts of dry powder, at this point in time. Of course, they will have been out of the market for many years so they won't have a lot of powder dry or wet.
yes, for the purposes of this poll let's use the S&P 500 and call 3600 the bottom. also, the question should read "has" the market bottomed, not "have". this ain't great britain. editing a poll question is not allowed.
So, by our judgments/ guesses , we have about another 8-9% room for correction. Guess we shall see how it plays out.
I just cant see how this could possibly be the bottom. I understand the market prices in the future forecast but there havent really been any solutions to any of our problems. I dont see things getting worse before they get better. And with that, a lot of capital will be liquidated and removed from the markets.
well, boys and girls, ladies and germs, as of today 2 people have voted yes. we're coming up on one month. wake up the fat lady.
I still believe we need to at least get back to the pre-COVID high...but in all honesty, a kiss (or pierce) of that ascending support TL on the SPX Weekly is where I believe we're ultimately going. Sorry I cannot draw it here, but I have drawn it elsewhere.
3600 was my prediction for s&p bottom. we blew past that. can we get a double bottom bounce now?
Holding for s&p 3050 end of q1 2023. May not get there, but should come close I think.
Its always lower than expected, we are closer to a bottom though.
When the WBI gets to 75, I would start thinking along the lines of an absolute bottom. That wouldn't be an all time low for that indicator but it would be a level that any positive news will turn the direction around.
So, I continue to fall in the camp of thinking the market could be cut in half from here. I am not predicting that it will, just mentioning that it could andiit would not be historic.
When people start talking about the market never coming back, that is when you are about to start a bull run.
^ this. i feel the same as well fwiw.
also, think last time i checked that price weighted 30 company index (aka, the "djia" for those keepin' score at home -- and not like i look at that one much cause admittedly i don't, but i'm only mentioning it here to make this point home lol) is now off less than 10% from its ATH...i think something like around 8% or so? that doesn't say much i know, but meh... not entirely sure if this market has actually endured enough pain (cue the so-called "capitulation" if you will).
back to the s&p though, i'm also in complete agreement that lower levels could still be had. for one, i'm at least looking for a clean and successful retest of the pre-pandemic high at around 3400ish. we've never really tested that level with any true conviction since the onset of this bear.
i think even lower levels can be seen, but for now i feel like no true bull begins until that inevitable retest imho.
additionally, i don't think we have actually seen a true wipe out day (or as some might call a "wash out day") during the length of this bear market. my definition of a true wipe out day would be something along the lines of possibly seeing the market breakers getting triggered in a single day, where you see the majors smashing down some -7% or greater across the boards. cue one of the days we saw around the height of the covid correction.
imho, the selloffs we have seen this year have been largely orderly. but, i'm thinking that changes once we get through holiday season.
of course to each their own. we all have our own take/opinions and that's what makes for good discussions. if we all agreed on everything would be pretty doggone boring imo.
we shall see how this all plays out. should be some nice two-way trades rest of the way out. can't deny that i love these kinds of markets as opposed to those that we saw like in 2017 where you hardly saw any market volatility, etc. more of this year's market por favor!