Poll: How good or bad the market will do next year?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by stock1234, Dec 30, 2022.

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How good or bad the SPX will do in 2023

Poll closed Jan 13, 2023.
  1. Up > 20%

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  2. Up between 10 to 20%

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  3. Up between 5 to 10%

    2 vote(s)
    16.7%
  4. Up between 1 to 5%

    3 vote(s)
    25.0%
  5. Down between 1 to 5%

    2 vote(s)
    16.7%
  6. Down between 5 to 10%

    2 vote(s)
    16.7%
  7. Down between 10 to 20%

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  8. Down > 20%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Just for fun, you can vote and share your opinions on the market next year even if you are not a short term trader :D

    I am going with down between 10 to 20% although the market rarely went down 2 consecutive years in the past. In recent years stock investors got a little spoiled by low interest rates, if the FED funds rate remains 4 to 5% for the near future then we probably aren't heading back to the ATH anytime soon. Many are thinking inflation will come down next year but the China reopening might be a wild card, hard to see inflation going down all that much if China is able to reopen fully at some point in 2023 unless something goes really wrong for the US economy.

    Just my opinions and my guess, I could be dead wrong here. Happy New Year and let's hope most of us here will make some money in the market in 2023 :D
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  2. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    When all is said and done, I think 2023 will be up very slightly (1-5%) with tons of drama in between. More specifically, I think the first 2/3 will completely suck and the last few months should be the start of a bull market to lift us up on the way to a good 2024.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  3. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Up between 1&5% is my guess from today's closing number of 3845. I see lots of downside in the future, then we slowly climb our way back up. Interest rates and loss of jobs will cause some major problems.
     
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  4. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Howdy Stock1234,

    You gave a lot of Options to Pick From! LoL.

    I’m thinking +5% to -5% Range.

    I Picked Down -1-5%.
    Will I Stop Buying?
    No.

    Happy New Year!

    -IndependentCandy14.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  5. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    It’s Like these Analyst.
    No One Knows.
    Throw a Dart.
    Try to Get it Right.

    This will be a nice thread to revert back to in 364 Days. LoL.

    -IndependentCandy14
     
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  6. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    good poll. up between 10-20%. you heard it here first. :banana:
     
  7. Crabby

    Crabby New Member

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    Down the first quarter, mixed the second quarter, then mostly up slowly to the end of the year.
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    -5% to -10%

    ty for setting up this poll btw @stock1234 :thumbsup:
     
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  9. Smokie

    Smokie Well-Known Member

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    Nice poll. Always interesting to come back to later and see how things actually end up. I voted up +5-10%. I'm just wired to have a positive outlook, I can't help it. :)
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  10. hitman

    hitman Well-Known Member

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    Growth between .02% - .05% , since the term recession was redefined then stagflation will be thrown out on a regular basis and that's the new go to word to keep they herd in check.
     
    #10 hitman, Jan 3, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2023
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I think the December low is very important. So since we started 2023 right at the low, I figured I would wait as long as I could to vote in this poll.

    I'm voting up >20%.

    Everyone knows the yield curve (10y / 2y) inverted...and that means a recession will occur (possibly more than 2 years afterward). But did you know that the SPX peaks AFTER the inversion as well? TradingView only has 10y - 2y going back to 1988. See chart with 2 panels.
    [​IMG]
    Top panel is SPX and bottom panel is 10y - 2y with a black line at the inversion. I just marked off 3 prior times where the yield curve inverted (ie bottom panel). And you can see SPX in top panel goes higher to peak before the recession drops.
     
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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Thanks for those of you who have participated and voted, should be fun when we look at it at the end of this year :D The poll will be closed in today, last call to those of you who haven't voted yet :D
     

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