Poll: Should stock picking be allowed for everyone?

Discussion in 'The Cocktail Lounge' started by emmett kelly, Feb 8, 2022.

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Should stock picking be allowed for everyone?

  1. Yes

    10 vote(s)
    90.9%
  2. No

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 100s of unemployed clowns and we get emmett.

    1 vote(s)
    9.1%
  1. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I didn't read the article but understand the premise of the question. I do think a lot of people get eaten alive trying to get rich quick, however I also think that's up to them. I think there should be more preliminary education by brokers before allowing trading however along with more prompts before making trades. I think they should show thinks like average trader returns versus the market as a whole, etc. I think most people don't understand how unlikely it is they can beat the market. If brokers showed retail traders results versus long-term holder results for all their clients in one handy dandy chart, I think it would scare some people away. I think most 20 year olds also don't understand just how much money they can have by 50 years old if they just stick their money in an index fund or a bunch of big-name companies like AMZN. If people knew they could just do their standard 401k contributions and let it ride, they can very easily retire at 50 if they're responsible outside that account as well.
     
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    The thing I like most about the stock market is how ruthlessly objective the process is. It's gamed with forces working against individual investors that few people know about but that is because few people want to know about them. Front runners should be disclosed but, beyond that, I say let the best man win.

    I've lost count of how many people have explained to me they are making massive returns with trading and it was later revealed they were losing money the whole time.

    Trading reveals how unfathomably unobjective nearly all people are. They all think they are the smartest person on the room. Well... Step right up for an opportunity to arm wrestle a million ton hydraulic cylinder. You won't know how good you are until you try!
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Further... let's quantify this a little bit.

    If you meet someone at your wife's annual Christmas party every year for 15 years, and they explain to you they are doubling their money every 4 to 12 months with trading, the only way that can be true is if the couple continue to work because they both enjoy it.

    Our most recent interaction with one of these guys started in 2017 when a very nice and intelligent man explained to me that he was making ridiculous returns with trading. I smiled and said nothing. In 2018, it was so good.... 2019 was basically a year long orgasm.... so, in 2020 when his wife had to delay her retirement so they could pay off the house which was previously mortgage free, it was pretty clear the annual bragging was not well founded. I don't know how a marriage can withstand that.

    If you can double your money every year, you should be able to retire in 4 years, even if you start with $5000.

    Year 0 - $5000
    Year 1 - $10000
    Year 2 - $20000
    Year 3 - $40000
    Year 4 - $80000

    ... with $80000 coming in annually after that. Most people retire on less than $80K of annual income.
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Indeed.

    Nearly everyone lies about their returns so only people who can cut through the relentless deception have an opportunity to learn that lesson. There are a handful of individuals in the world who actually do out perform the S&P 500, so we can't objectively declare someone to be lying, when they say they have done it consistently over time. All we know is the odds of these declarations being true are infinitesimal.

    Warren Buffett has done a lot for educating people on how difficult it is to beat market returns. Jack Bogle is where it all started but his teachings did not make it to my ears until years after Mr. Buffett started making the same case.

    If accurate statistics on trading gains were more widely known, I'm not sure it would appreciably change the amount of trading. Everyone knows they are the smartest guy in the room. Buying VOO every pay check for 25 years is an admission of not being the smartest guy. Not many people can admit that.
     
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I don't think a lot of it is even traders lying enticing people. I think a lot of it is just people don't hear enough about how just about anyone making a decent wage should be able to retire by their mid 50's if they just leave their money in the S&P. A lot of the reason people try to get rich is because they don't think they have a path to retirement while still relatively young.
     
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  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I voted yes.
    Honestly, as long as I can pick TQQQ, SOXL, etc. I'm mostly OK.

    Question: Is TQQQ more, less, or the same diversified as QQQ?
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    When I was a young investor in Canada, there were a handful of investments that were only legal for an "accredited investor". As I recall, being an accredited investor in my province meant having a net worth of $2M. The qualification has changed but I don't know what it currently is.

    The thing is, there was an investment I wanted to engage in. I had the money and probably could have done it without getting caught but my net worth was below the threshold so it would not have been legal.

    As best I can tell, these sort of qualifications are put in place to keep average people from making money in some areas, as much as they are put in place to save people with less resource from taking risks. It would make more sense to make the accreditation based on an exam. Net worth makes no sense. If you can demonstrate a sound knowledge of accounting and business, there is no legitimate reason to prevent someone from buying into an RE holding company (which I wanted to do back in the day).

    So, any barriers to activities are likely to be perverted by politics and the innate desire some people have to force others to conform. In other words, bullshit.

    In closing: Give me freedom or give me death.
     
  9. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    i did and can't find anything of substance in it. i think maybe she lost her butt trading and is now crying about it. have to read between the lines.
     
  10. sarahdurden

    sarahdurden New Member

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    I'm another vote for 'yes'. Although I want to see more financial education in schools to help young people understand how investing (among other things) works before they run off to college. By the time they start getting credit cards thrown at them and have access to trading apps, it's already a bit late. It really bugs me how much knowledge is kept hidden from the average person.
     
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  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    What would they teach?

    I wish I had taken more accounting, all the way back to high school. Back in the day, I never dreamed I would be reading the books of so many businesses. I've picked it up on my own but it would have been a handy life skill.

    As far as investing knowledge, 99.5% of what I read is bullshit so I would consider nearly anything someone would want to teach to be indoctrination into a get rich quick scheme. There may be some value in a case study of wealthy people and investing styles but the wealthy people would need to have their wealth verified.
     
  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Honestly the biggest lesson I think needs to be taught is the power of saving money, and long-term investment. I've said it before, but most people don't see a path to retirement while still young enough to enjoy it. They don't realize that you can try to just average 10% a year and retirement with $2M in their 401k's by 50 years old. I think most people who have never looked at a chart about it have no idea because it's not common knowledge. Some kids have parents who teach it to them, but those who don't see no way to a fulfilling life financially so they see the Gamestop coverage and then they're toast.
     
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  13. roadtonowhere08

    roadtonowhere08 Well-Known Member

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    I have nothing to add to the great points above. Smart investing is the best way to move up. Life is nothing but a big example of "caveat emptor" so why should picking stocks be any different?
     
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