POLL: Which do you think is the most likely to come first? VOTE!

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 1, 2022.

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Which do you think will be seen first?

Poll closed Sep 1, 2022.
  1. New ATH print in the cash SPX (4800)?

    1 vote(s)
    8.3%
  2. New bear market low (3600)?

    7 vote(s)
    58.3%
  3. Duuuuuuude.

    4 vote(s)
    33.3%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    As the poll question states. Which outcome do you think will be the mostly likely outcome to be seen first? A new ATH in the SPX (over 4800), or a new bear market low (3600)?

    Since time doesn't really matter for this particular poll, it could literally run on for years until there is resolution.

    I'm thinking it won't take that long, but we shall see. :p

    Will be interesting to hear how market sentiment is like here on the community going into the future.

    With price sitting just a little below the halfback point of the entire bear market (with 4800 being the peak of the YTD range, and 3600 being the low for now) 4200 represents basically the mid point give or take of the entire range, which is kinda where price is sitting now give or take a hundo handles.

    Should be a rather interesting poll me thinks to see if people are trusting this bounce off the lows, and thinking the bottoms been set on this particular bear cycle at least. Or if people are thinking the bottom isn't in yet, and that a retest of the lows are in order first, before a new market high is to be seen.

    Thanks to all who vote on this poll, and inputs are also very welcomed and encouraged. :D
     
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  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Hopefully we've seen the bottom, but I wouldn't be shocked to head down. I'm indifferent, so I voted with the duuuudddeeeee caucus
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for chiming in here @T0rm3nted, even though there was no real conviction on either poll choice (well except for duuuuuuuuude hahaha). :p

    Will have to admit, am slightly surprised this thread poll hasn't gotten much of any fanfare (interest) around it.

    I suspect this might because this is not a very clear cut poll if you will. In other words, not one of those "Oh yeah, I'm definitely voting for that one w/o a shadow of doubt!" kinda poll if you will.

    I'd say if there's a lack of conviction from the community on this poll, tells me that maybe it was actually a decent enough poll to have set up then.

    Sure, I know we already have a few "have we bottomed yet?" polls running around in here already. But, to me I feel like those aren't very clear cut questions. Perhaps if there was some "time frame" involved in those polls would make them a bit more meaningful to me.

    I think not putting any time frame at all like in this poll here is the best way to go about it imo. Since, this one here wouldn't be resolved until either a new ATH was printed (4800+) in the cash SPX index, or until a new low of the bear market was printed first (3600-ish).

    It literally is asking what people think is most likely to occurs FIRST. And does not matter how long it takes. Could take a year, 2 years. Whatever.

    Hopefully not THAT long as that would make for pretty damn boring markets then haha.

    I think resolution of this particular poll could happen by as early as this coming Fall once everyone is back from their summer vacations, and schools are back in session, the whole 9 yards. Should be a pretty fun and interesting time around then me thinks.

    And yes, I'm totally in the camp that thinks this bounce we've had off the bear lows is pretty typical of a BEAR MARKET RALLY imo.

    Maybe not very many people remember the GFC (great financial crisis of 2008) bear market. But, that bear had some pretty potent bear rallies that were sometimes sooo strong it would leave you to believe the bottom truly was in and that the market was back on the uptrend to ATHs again. Of course, that wasn't the case as the next leg down took us to the infamous 666 print on the cash SPX on March 6th, 2009 haha.

    I think we're basically gonna be seeing a similar situation play out here. But we shall see. :p
     
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  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Exactly what I'm thinking.
    I voted that we make new ATH next, in spite of that June low missing some important characteristics of an extreme low.
    I am ready to be wrong...in this poll.
     
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  5. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    New low, I can't really turn bullish until we see signs of slowing inflation and the less hawkish FED, I am ready to be wrong as well :p
     
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  6. Rayak

    Rayak Member

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    I am not sure it will go all the way back to 3600, but that's how I voted. Simply because there is too much negative going on, not the least of which is the Russia / Ukraine war. I fear that is a bigger deal than many people think, and will have wider ramifications. Also note that Putin is building/growing Russian alliances with Iran and other dangerous regimes.

    Russia alone is enough to give me pause as to how that might play out and effect the economy / markets.
     
    #6 Rayak, Aug 15, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2022
  7. Spud

    Spud Active Member

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    The majority says 3600 therefore the bottom must be in. 4800 is knocking on the door. Voted duuuuuuude.
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Completely forgot to share this post when I made it on Discord about a week after I made this thread here.

    This was posted on a guild I regularly frequent. Many on that chat were piping up the whole "the bottom is in!" and "we're going back to ATHs!" rhetoric at the time I had made this post. But not me. I was one of the very few who had stuck their neck out and went out on a little limb. The post was made on Aug. 11th (just about a week before we made our summer rally highs in the SPX) which was right around the halfback point (aka, the 50% retracement level of the entire bear market -- if you took it from the ATH down to the June lows). Sits around 4250ish give or take. Precisely around the time I had made that post.

    It was no doubt a highly unpopular call at that time too, with many on that chat giving me grief about my post since the markets were still rallying up at the time, but I stuck with the call. Sure enough, cash SPX came within about 10 handles of its June low yesterday. I've seen this story play out before (cue the GFC '08-'09 bear). While everyone and their great grandmothers were sipping on the :koolaid:, the bounce we saw in the summer was very typical of a rally within a bear market.. "Sucker's Rally" if one wants to call it that. Where, the bounce can be so strong and convincing, it leaves and everyone and their brothers to believe the lows were definitely put in and a move back to ATHs was forthcoming there after.

    Sorry if this seems a bit too much chest thumping here. I'm actually not one who likes to do that at all tbh. But, sometimes I feel like I need to put it out there. As I sometimes feel like Rodney Dangerfield when he goes "I can never get any respect around here" haha. Well, that is sometimes how I feel on that chat I regular. Anyway, 'tis all good.

    I did actually profit of that move from the summer rally highs too by shorting /ES contracts. But, I definitely missed out on a good chunk of the recent down move due to IRL (in real life) issues that have unfortunately kept me largely away from the day-to-day market action as of recent. Really sucks hard sometimes, but it is what it is... Whatever. Still was happy to make some nice moolah on this dip back to the June low retest haha.

    Happy weekend y'all's! :)

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Spud

    Spud Active Member

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    Thought about this post Friday, glad it got pulled back up. Majority rules beyond a doubt. The money pulled the plug.
    I'm just glad I had the foresight and guts to take that tEslA pre earnings potion. :D
     

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