predicting the next short squeezes

Discussion in 'Investing' started by ENERSHA, Jan 30, 2021.

  1. ENERSHA

    ENERSHA New Member

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    disclaimer: I have a professional background as a business intelligence web developer and a bachelor's of science majoring in mathematics. I do not currently have any position or experience in any short term stock trading. This is not financial advice. I set out to answer the question: how can one do the most amount of damage to a given list of shorted companies for the cheapest price? This is not an investment strategy. Predicting the next GameStop is not an investment strategy. Thank you.

    mathematics: How did I answer the question? It is relatively simple. We are given the float, percent float and stock price. I simply derived the number of floated dollars per dollar invested at the current price ( Jan 30, 2021). source: https://www.highshortinterest.com/

    I wish to deliver full transparency so anything anyone thinks is wrong, confusing, or you just have a question, please comment. See the attached txt file (acting as a csv) to see the results of my calculations and I have attached a portfolio designed to be used in the Investopedia simulation. This is not a serious portfolio.
     

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  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    I like your train of thought, but you need to consider that the market as an entity is smart and evolving. Just because this gamma squeeze worked on GME does not mean it will work on the next highly shorted stock.

    In fact I am willing to be that algos are already trawling the subreddits and discord rooms, quantifying the data, checking to see what tickers are being spammed the most and what kind of unusual call activity is taking place.

    Hedge funds are not sitting on their hands waiting to be the next one caught short. They are actively taking precautions as we speak!
     
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  3. ENERSHA

    ENERSHA New Member

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    I cant necessarily disagree with any of that but to even make such a risky short in the first place you have to be obscenely arrogant in my opinion. I could just as easily see short sellers sticking to their guns with the mentality than it wont happen to them and that GME was a fluke. That could also be correct. I think it could go either way imo. To save themselves they'd have to settle their losses or risk the exposure.
     
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Welcome to Stockaholics, E.

    Hey! I own the #3 stock on that list: Virgin Galactic. I was wondering why it had gone up so much.

    Perhaps they will go to the moon sooner than I expected.
     
  5. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    Just spotted this thread. Great one. GME was a unique situation but to this day it still has everyone confused. The chartist are scratching their heads and confused on the channels. Even on low volume days nobody seems to be able to predict the lows. This is the pandora's box. A little more to the story of this one than most realize.

    Shorting is a important cycle of the markets, finding the right target is much easier now than in previous times. As the previous shorts are covered more pile in, if the buying power is increased it creates a endless cycle.
    As a rule of thumb the big funds are well capitalized and have the best of technology, if they lose today chances are they will recoup tomorrow, when we have 2 that are competing on the opposite side it can get interesting.

    Trick is to get in and get out quick enough without holding the bags and move on. The smaller guy usually gets greedy and ends up getting smoked.
     
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  6. gtrudeau88

    gtrudeau88 Well-Known Member

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    Got burned 2x trying to gain from short squeezes on SLV and AAL. won't try it again. Losses weren't huge $ amounts but greater than 5% if I remember right.
     
  7. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    This is a prime example of what happens when you don't have a clue, guys like this are minnows in a tank full of sharks.
     

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