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QD - Qudian (NYSE)

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by SensibleInvesting, May 24, 2019.

  1. SensibleInvesting

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    Hey everyone,

    Given the most recent volatility in the Chinese markets, I decided to not squander a wonderful crash and went bargain hunting, and will continue to do so for some time.

    Recently, I initiated a long position on QD:NYSE (Qudian). In the past year, QD have repurchased >25% of their entire market cap in shares. They're also growing at around a 20 - 25% clip, but have been priced for failure - despite all evidence to the contrary, sentiment is unbelievably bearish. Should the stock price drop (which it most likely will given the negative China sentiment), I have 2 more bullets ready to fire.

    This is a full 15 minute video analysis I made on QD - would love your thoughts and feedback:

    Based on QD's fundamentals, I'm targeting an 80% upside - based on their current out-performance, we're looking at a forward PE of around 4! Crazy!

    Cheers, SB
     
  2. SensibleInvesting

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    Just thought I'd post a little update about Qudian - it looks like due to the economic conditions they've wound down their DaBai Autos lending sector. Having said this, they've now dedicated 100% of their focus to growing their pure lending business - in Q1 of 2019, the majority of their revenue growth came from off-balance sheet transactions, reflecting them shifting their business model from direct lending to lending intermediary (which addresses the regulatory crackdown concerns). They've forecasted revenue for FY 2019 to be at least RMB 3.5B; if we have some favourable this should see their PE per ADS down to ~3.
     
  3. SensibleInvesting

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    Update 21/06/2019 - great news - this company is posting some ridiculous numbers! Increased guidance by ~25% for net income - that's nuts:
    upload_2019-6-24_6-43-9.png
     
  4. SensibleInvesting

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    Hey guys, I've made an amended analysis video to supplement my previous one. Based on my latest research, 80% upside seems far too conservative, and I've put together why I believe 3 - 4x is a more appropriate valuation for Qudian, based on today's prices:

     
  5. SensibleInvesting

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    Qudian plunged 45% this week, despite reporting an increase of 52.9% in net profits. This brings the company to a PE ratio of ~2.5 and a PB ratio of less than 1. Existing holders are capitulating and you might be wondering whether to buy, hold, or sell. We cover this and more in today's video.

     
  6. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    U.S. Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again

    https://www.blacklistednews.com/art...troyed-and-nothing-will-ever-be-the-same.html

    What Congress has done here, in its partisan fury to further geopolitically crucify Trump, has been to put President Trump into a completely untenable position; if he signs the bill, it may well destroy any possible attempt to salvage negotiations on this trade deal, while he is still in office; if he vetoes the bill, he will be called out by the Dementocrats and the legacy media, as "an agent for Beijing".
     
    Marvan likes this.
  7. SensibleInvesting

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    Oh dear, this is not good news for the markets, especially when it's near all time highs...
     
    Marvan likes this.
  8. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    SensibleInvesting and Marvan like this.
  9. SensibleInvesting

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    Let's hope this doesn't derail the trade deal!
     

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