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Sensible Investing's Journal - Quest For Consistent 30%+

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by SensibleInvesting, Aug 30, 2019.

  1. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    It's just Tradingview.com. I used the free version for years and then I upgraded so I could get intraday point & figure charts.
     
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  2. SensibleInvesting

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    I'm going deep into Boingo and am considering opening a position next week. If anyone's interested, this is a report I wrote for a fund manager who's taking me under his wing - it's not quite complete because there are a couple of things outside of my current abilities, but he is researching Boingo this week, and should have a view as to whether this is a buy or not!

    Hope you guys find the report useful!

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1K2wecMYzh-rvmSoZ4U2FkvBFVE9J8JuSY0iVB8iEycg/edit?usp=sharing
     
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  3. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Nice work on that report SI :cool:. Chart-wise, Boingo's come a long way down....but last week a lot of supply (trading volume) came into that market without much downward price progress. It appears the throw-in-the-towel sells are being absorbed. May see a short-covering rally before too long, setting the stage for an accumulation trading range.
     
    #23 Onepoint272, Oct 13, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2019
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  4. SensibleInvesting

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    Thanks OP!

    What are your thoughts from a technical standpoint when they recently had a rally but only to go back down? It appears the rally happened after the market digested their 1st August earnings call - perhaps it was due to the upgrades that took a couple of weeks to flow through? It looks like the rally started 15th of August but couldn't sustain the momentum!

    It would be great to get your take on this OP!
     
  5. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The upgrades occurred, as you say, well after the ER when the price dropped to a recognizable key support level. Which is likely no coincidence. The stock had been, and still is, in a long term mark down phase. But of course price doesn't go straight down as value is very subjective and there are many players and many reasons to buy or sell, many of which are not even based on fundamentals. A likely scenario is that somebody (somebodies) or some firm (firms) took a position for a short-term campaign as it approached that key support level, then they released some upgrades, created some buzz, and started buying the ask. That caused the shorts to cover and the public to buy. Then the somebodies or firms sold (and then likely sold short) to those public shorts and longs as the price rose. These campaigns are what keeps the lights turned on in Manhattan.

    The rally could not be sustained because there is still too much stock in the hands of the public which is easily brought to the market and depresses price (supply > demand). What needs to happen is that somebody big takes a big position and that almost always is initiated by some bad news that causes the public to panic or throw in the towel. The big buyer needs that in order to begin a large position. Then he will accumulate more by net buying in an accumulation trading range where he will sell the top of the range to keep the public from buying it up and he will buy more at the bottom of the range. Eventually he'll get most of the stock locked up. A rally can only be sustained when the supply of stock is taken out of the public's hands so that supply of stock available for trading is small (supply < demand).
     
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  6. SensibleInvesting

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    Thanks for your feedback OP - if my analysis is correct, Q3 and Q4 will mark the turning point of this company's fortunes. They had 5 covering the stock at Q4 2017 earnings call, and as of Q2 2019 they have 8:

    upload_2019-10-14_7-26-7.png upload_2019-10-14_7-26-30.png
     
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  7. SensibleInvesting

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    @Onepoint272
    Heya OP, what are your thoughts on getting in AMC before the next earnings call? Short interest is pretty high and from my limited knowledge of technicals, it looks like it could bounce similar to what happened before the last earnings call.
    upload_2019-10-14_20-22-24.png
     
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  8. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 2019 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well it is in a long- and short-term downtrend but they do like to ramp before earnings. You could buy a break above Tuesday's high but keep in mind it will need to build cause (consolidate in a trading range) for a "sustained" uptrend. It should smack its head on the $10.46 to $10.63 ceiling if it does ramp up.
     
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  9. SensibleInvesting

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    Alright, thanks!
     
  10. SensibleInvesting

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    I put an order in for Boingo, as the earnings call is post-market 5th November - lets hope all that research pays off!
     
  11. SensibleInvesting

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  12. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  13. SensibleInvesting

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    Thanks Tormented! This is proof of concept that outperforming poor expectations lead to a nice bounce. My aim is to find 10 - 12 of these per year, for the next 2 - 3 years - should I be successful, this will give me sufficient evidence to quit my job and go into investing full time!
     
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