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Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by Stockaholic, Mar 31, 2016.
SLV chart daily:
Strong couple of days, broke out of previous resistance levels. Frustrating cause I sold all of my USLV like a month ago...
I'm really liking the long term chart here. Looking at getting some 2018 leaps @ 20$ strike
Futures are booming
Holding 25 Jan 2018 leaps on this. Currently up 10% / 20$ strike
Precious metals going strong since February. I'm bullish and have yet to see anything to change my mind.
On the Silver Future, I'm figuring the downside Point & Figure objective is near met. Could go as low as $15. The long-term upside objective is now $38.50 which is based on the cause built in this trading range going back to the selling climax printed over 2 years ago in December of 2014.
Interestingly bullish to note that the downward thrusts are shortening.
I have subscribers long the Silver Miners here from a week ago and Gold hell close to the damn near bottom. Silver over 18 opens up stupid high prices IMO
So that last up-wave had the highest accumulated volume in this over 2-year-old trading range....a sign of strength?
Weekly as of Thursdays close:
Inverse head and shoulders forming, somewhat less volume as price sagged down to make the right shoulder
Looking for silver to outperform gold.
Silver should move in 2018. The GC/SI ratio is approaching another high. Silver and gold move inversely to the GC/SI ratio. The highs in the ratio mark lows in the metals and vicy vercy.
The ratio represents how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold.
The mining production ratio is like 7 silver to 1 gold and yet the price ratio is currently over 80 to 1.
Monthy looking back to 1979:
Seasonal Weakness in Silver Usually Lasts until Late June
Silver has a strong tendency to peak or continue lower in May, bottoming in mid to late June. Traders can look to sell silver in mid-May and maintain a short position until on or about June 23. In the past 46 years this trade has seen silver (July contract) decline 30 times for a success rate of 65.2%. Prior to 2014, this trade had been successful for eight years in a row. Since 2014 this trade has failed to materialize three times. However, it has been successful in 10 of the last 13 years.
In the chart below, the 47-year historical average seasonal price tendency of silver as well as the decline typically seen from mid-May until the low is posted in late June or early July is shown. This May silver short trade captures the tail end of silver’s weak seasonal period (shaded yellow) that typically begins in late February or early March.
This has been a great summer for silver!
Silver looks ready to pop - FMOC tomorrow. Anyone playing long/short?
Silver At New Highs
Mon, Jul 13, 2020
As we noted in an earlier post, one of the best-performing commodities in 2020 has been silver (SLV). Although it has lagged its yellow metal cousin on a year-to-date basis, SLV has seen strong performance over the past few months and has more recently even begun to break out to new highs. During the market turmoil of February and March, SLV had fallen over 35.5% from its February 24th high to its March 18th low compared to a 9.86% decline for gold (GLD) over that same period. Since that low on March 18th when SLV was at its lowest level since January of 2009, the ETF has rallied 59.23% through today compared to gold's gain of 20.6%. As shown below, with that rally continuing over the past few sessions, SLV has risen above resistance between $17.40-$17.50 that traces back to the highs in February of this year and September of last year. That leaves the next area to watch around the early September high of $18.34.
This is REFLATION PERIOD, very similar to the 2009 era, when silver made a move from $9 to $49. We do not believe anything like that is BOUND TO OCCUR, but we are ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED that gold and silver stocks are in a rock-solid uptrend, which will be LEGENDARY.
Silver Gets the Gold for YTD Performance
Wed, Jul 22, 2020
In last night's Closer, we took a look at the massive rallies of late in the precious metals space. Gold (GLD) reached its highest level since 2011, but silver's (SLV) performance on the day was even more of a sight to behold with gains in the top 1% of all days since SLV began trading in 2006. Silver (SLV) rose 6.15% for its best day since March 24th when the metal rose 7.96%. Whereas the silver to gold ratio has been in a constant downtrend over the past decade (indicating underperformance of silver relative to gold), yesterday's big gains led to a breakout of this downtrend. With SLV trading higher by over 5% yet again this morning, that downtrend is being broken even more significantly, and that is even with SLV off the pre-market highs above $21.
As recently as the final days of June, SLV was actually sitting on a loss year to date. That was a far cry from the performance of some of the best-performing assets of the year at the time like the Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) which was up over 14% and the long term Treasuries ETF (TLT) which was up over 21.5%. Silver's yellow cousin, gold, was likewise sitting on a sizeable gain of 16.6%. Pivot ahead to today and the picture is very different. Around this morning's premarket highs when SLV was trading above $21, it actually topped QQQ, TLT, and GLD as the best performing asset in 2020. That is even with each of these other ETFs also trading higher.
This has broke out if you ask me. I expect to see $30-40 by October. My $.02..
Silver Takes the Gold
Thu, Aug 6, 2020
Gold and silver prices were already on a tear heading into this week, but they've only seen their gains accelerate even more. With more than a day and a half of trading left in the week, front-month gold futures have rallied, but silver has been the real show stopper with a gain of 16%!
Taking a look at a one-year chart of silver over the last year, things have really gone parabolic this week as the front-month futures contract is trading more than 40% above its 50-day moving average (DMA) and 62% above its 200-DMA.
Were it not for the move in silver, gold's move would be getting all the attention. Prices for gold have also seen a major surge in the last month, rising from under $1,800 to the current level of $2,060 per ounce. While not as extended as silver, gold currently trades 14% above its 50-DMA and 26% above its 200-DMA.
With gold 25.7% above its 200-DMA and silver 62.2% above, the average spread of the two commodities currently stands at 44.3%. In the 40+ year history of the two futures contracts, there have only been a handful of prior periods where the average spread of the two commodities was larger or even above 35% for that matter with the most recent occurring back in early 2011. This recent rally in the two commodities has certainly been one for the ages.