I know, I've seen you post enough to know that, and I get it. I was more talking about "the store in general". The one thing I wasn't right about you was that I thought you were more of a longer term holder, which you explain later. You get out of losers quick. You lose a lot, but you win slightly more and the wins are MUCH bigger than the losers. I respect that. I like the play on my avatar Most of my plays are purely technical, but sometimes I create a bias myself in stores that I think are not doing well which either stops me from going long, or in very few cases inspires me to go short (if it lines up with what I'm seeing technically). I keep it much simpler than you though as I don't have the patience to dig in that deep like you do. I'm only 28 years old and only investing my 401K and a portion of my savings account. I'm married, so I can't just use all the money that I have saved like I would like. If I was more heavily invested in the market, I would definitely be trying to dig deeper than I am now. What I'm doing now though is working for me, so I see no reason to change. I'm fully aware that just about anybody could have made money with the market like this the last year though, so I'm not too hung up on the fact that I'm a "great trader". Anybody could have done it. To make it a little more clear, I rarely short. In the last 10 months (when I started investing), I have made 81 trades, 70 of them long, 11 short. The SPLS play did have a lot of luck surrounding it for sure, but my entry point on the chart was what pushed me in. The stock was overbought and coming up on resistance, so I set a tight stop (in my head) and said if it breaks resistance, I'll just call it a small loser and move on. I rarely pull the trigger on the short because the market has been so bullish. This was one of the few I did. Like you mentioned, I got lucky. SPLS and Office Depot were supposed to merge, and the merger fell through. I was already up on my position something like 10% (going by memory here), and that news broke and the stock plummeted. I sold a little early as I could have made another 5-10%, but I still got out smelling like roses. The reason I proposed a possible short was it had a similar setup that I saw in it earlier (going by memory). It was coming up on what I saw as pretty clear resistance. It would have been another "set a tight stop and cut my losses if I'm wrong". Like I said earlier, most of my trades average around a month or two, so I wasn't planning on shorting for a long period of time here in this bull market. I'm not involved at this point so hopefully I was wrong and you make some solid money on this one. I don't look at things in quite the deep, advanced ways you do, so I see them "simpler". That means I miss a lot of what the big wigs are doing, but it's working for me so far. I'm sure one day I'll go deeper after my kid is born and we have a bit more money saved up.
Okay, so you were telling a fib, you did not rely solely on your observations but used technical analysis too. I thought so. I wouldn't say I look any deeper. It's more a matter of paradigm. I have learned to look at the market as if I had $100M to invest, or trading for someone who did. So SPLS showed some hopeful life today....up 2.83% to $9.46. Gotta love the "Sandlot".
Except if you read my post again, you'll see the "general observations" comment was directed towards your post about SPLS and why you would be long (remember this was when I didn't understand fully how you trade). It was general inquiry. I then clearly stated that from the general observations (and therefore becoming a bear on the company as a whole) I also noticed the stock was coming up on some resistance, which is why I shorted it.
Ahh, I stand corrected. Now consider Squints and Wendy Peppercorn....I really think there is a trading lesson in there.
Closed up on Tuesday nearly 10% on heavy daily volume. Apparently SPLS is talking to some private equity entity. The move is positioned in the range to qualify as a sign of strength (SOS). Been holding for about 12 weeks now collecting one dividend (5.2% annual yield). 0.25-box by 3-box-reversal point & figure objective = 17.25. We'll see if it can finish the week strong. Weekly as of close Tuesday:
Damnit!.... Right in front of my face and I missed it! I put this on my watchlist, mmm, maybe a week ago?? The volume on that last test, at the end of March, wasn't convincing enough for me..... Yet..... There it went! But I got another one that does look convincing, I'll post it up here in a sec, if I can find the thread for it
@Jrich opportunity isn't over yet, putting this on my watchlist, the low at 7.24 from november looks like a morning star reversal on my weekly, I really love the low volume with new low price. Potential inverse head and shoulder as well though not very clean. This stock feels like it has the potential to enter a bull run, lack of sellers at lows and I'm guessing a majority of overhead resistance have taken their losses. Add in the fact that most people have forgotten about it's existence as well.
Staples is doing a lot more than it's competitors to increase its omnichannel presence. They're pushing online orders and especially BOPIS more than competitors. Personally, I don't see a use for it when it is so much easier for me to order from Amazon, but I'm optimistic for this year.
Definitely no easy button, but it does have the lowest price, 1 day free shipping, and popularity. When was the last time you went into a staples or ordered from Staples. I don't care how much they're promoting ordering online. When I need something that a staples would sell but I'm not going out to buy, I'll always look on Amazon for the cheapest option and I'll have it within a day or two. Niche stores like Staples won't be around for much longer. It's pretty much Walmart/Target for office supplies if you need them immediately, or order online and have it within a day or two for much cheaper.
For all the competition: Office Depot (ODP) and Office Maxx and especially considering AMZN, WMT, and TGT it seems weird, perhaps even conspiratorial, that the Federal Trade Commission blocked the merger with ODP on the grounds of anti-trust laws. I find it difficult to believe that an ODP/SPLS merger would have cornered the market on stationary supplies. As a matter of principal I avoid paying the AMZN tax. The last straw for me was when Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post.
I agree.... Just a little sarcastic humor.... I like making things fun, if you can't have fun, why do it?? I imagine if I was a billionaire, and if I owned 100 million shares of a company I knew was going to hell... I couldn't dump my whole load on the market all at once, I'd be lucky to get a penny for the last share No... I'd have to eeeeeeease my way out... Stair stepping down.... Dump 20 million, buy 10 back, then dump another 20...... I'm so damn rich, that I AM supply and demand! That's about the only logical explanation for rallies in a falling stock..... And winning is winning, no matter how you play the game!..... If we can predict these rally's, we can benefit off that poor billionaire who put his eggs in the wrong basket...... Unless that is too much for your conscience to bare
Nope, I understand how it works. I'm a "conspiracist theorist", so I always think about what's really happening in the background as well. I probably shouldn't have quoted you and quoted tbw instead as I was moreso responding to him since he said they're pushing online sales. Buying in because you can see what's happening in the background (large money sources trying to move a stock the way they want it to go) is one thing, but buying in because you believe in a niche market that is dying is an extremely questionable decision.
This is another of a dying breed, Amazon and the likes are pushing them out little by little. The stuff I need now I go to Walmart, otherwise I order it online. I feel for places like this when Amazon goes a little deeper brick and mortar. In fact if I was a buy n hold guy, I'd go with AMZN, just saying.
Staple still has its edge over Amazon on Fortune 500 companies. Amazon does not sell or own all the office supplies they sell on the website. They are mostly 3rd party listings. Hence Amazon won't be able to compete with Staples on business orders. For average consumers, we don't get the pricing businesses do from Staples. That's also the very reason why the STAPLES & Office Depot merger was blocked. If they are merged, they will be a monopoly in corporation office supply market.
Wolfy's right, Staples' customer is B2B not average consumer. Retail is in a race right now for the first to make a mark on ecomm. Walmart has flopped at that, Target is doing well (But I have certain personal opinions on them recently), but Staples is pushing more than any other in the office supply area. Retail isn't done. It will never be. But it certainly is evolving. Also, living downtown, I think the nearest Walmart for me is 20 miles away. Can't even.
Staples,Office Depot are closing stores right and left. Overall retail is in a tailspin, Staples is in bad shape,perhaps worse than you guys realize in fact they are looking for a buyer. Point being it's just not that EASY anymore. I work for a fairly big outfit and they have all but quit buying from them because they found cheaper suppliers. RETAIL "as we know it" IS A DYING BREED, I stand behind that statement. I've made a big chunk of change playing the downside of several recently.
