If anything happens in June, it will be a rate cut. I am really flabbergasted that they keep jawboning about a hike. I know they're doing it because they have no sack, and want the market to price in a hike before they can do it. But all this cheap talk has never raised the long term rate. So all they're doing is keeping the yield curve flat as can be.
I agree. Market acts like a spoiled kid that wants every candy and toy he sees. Mama needs to eventually say no and explain why not... Kid will cry for a little bit but it will be good for him in the long run.
Today's Market Thoughts Be patient here...levels are stated in the video. We are in chop and make sure you have your powder dry vs getting chopped up trying to guess where things are going.
I think the Fed should hike in June, but it is hard for them to do it when the markets are pricing in almost no chance of a hike in June.
The market is acting spoiled because it essentially ignored fundamentals for years and overshot valuations thanks to low interest rates and QE. Now its time for deliverance of real recovery or death of this bull market since the punchbowl was taken away. One way or another, the little bubble we're in will deflate.
There used to be a time when the Fed did what ever they thought needed to be done, regardless of whether the market likes it or not!
I keep saying that too and I think almost every old school investor agrees, but we are too far down the rabbit hole at this point.
PYPL will have an analyst day tomorrow, possibly some good news could come out. Chart-wise, there's been a couple days of doji and above-average volume. Also on a support trend line. Whenever I look at PYPL I also look at SQ (bleh), and it had huge volume today, equal to an earnings report day.
They're gonna stop talking? Great! Just do it, or don't. Don't talk about "it's possible we might do it".
I think retail participation is too low for there to be a meaningful bear market. If anything, there are way too many shorts and once the markets begin breaking out in 2017, then we'll see them covering like crazy fueling the markets higher than we can imagine. I'm waiting for another dip back down to the 15ks in the DOW before I go long in my retirement account though.
Sensex loses further, Nifty holds 7800 amid weakness; SBI gains Equity benchmarks extended losses in noon trade due to further selling in index heavyweights HDFC, HDFC Bank, Infosys and ITC that fell more than 1 percent. SBI and ONGC outperformed with more than 1 percent upside. Equity benchmarks extended losses in noon trade due to further selling in index heavyweights HDFC, HDFC Bank, Infosys and ITC that fell more than 1 percent. SBI and ONGC outperformed with more than 1 percent upside. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 253.13 points or 0.98 percent to 25520.48 and the 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 73.40 points or 0.93 percent to 7817.35. About 1261 shares declined against 954 advancing shares on Bombay Stock Exchange. Read more at: http://www.capitalheight.com
SP500 PE is currently around 23.5 I think. I was thinking this same thing earlier this week. Seems the average investor is comfortable with a higher than 15-20 PE on the index. I wonder if the pendulum will swing both ways when fear and greed hit. The PE ratio has been going up because earning have been going down. If the economy softens a bit more, the PE will go higher. The CPI numbers, to me, seemed to indicate a slowing economy. People don't like to spend money when stuff costs more than it did a month ago. They hold off until they really need it. So higher prices across commodities will slow the velocity of money, imo. Crude has been historically low. Higher crude means higher delivery, production costs, etc. Even ag is starting to move. But the USD is starting to move up so...we'll see.
