ES_F Levels are 2093.50 / / 2082 / / 2070.75 Watching here....to see the strength of the bounce into the close... If there is one
US oil closes at near 2-month low, down 4.8 pct, as stock draw disappoints Oil prices fell nearly 5 percent on Thursday, reversing early gains after the U.S. government reported a weekly crude draw that disappointed market bulls expecting larger declines. U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 2.2 million barrels to a total of 524.4 million in the week through July 1, the Energy Information Administration reported.
$WCG half a million dollars of puts bought for next week expiry - pretty aggressive. https://www.techtrader.ai/wall/?date=1467886882&post=9590 WCG 7/15/2016 100x Puts, 4160@$1.25 MV: $0.5M | $Not.: $12.5M | OI: 1373 | 25.2% TotalOI 25.0% StockVolume | 75.3% OptionVolume
SP and DOW only dropped about 1/10 percent with oils 5% drop today. Should be good for a 2% rally if oil goes back to 50 again.
I do have levels for CL. I will start posting those as well. Again I have to see where this weekly bar closes.
now I officially feel back at home watching Max's vids! Thx for taking the time as always @MaximusAnalysis I agree with everything you said in the first 5 minutes of your video there. Great points man. We can never become too complacent about this market. Sure the dips have been great buy ops over the past 7 years but at some point that will end. No one knows when that is but to anyone who thinks 1987 or 2008 can't happen again (and I'm not saying anyone has said that here) would be foolish. I liked when you zoomed out to the larger time frames there. Def. seeing some similarities going right now from previous bull tops. Very interesting. Thx again for the recap and run down as always man!
The overwhelming majority have been too scared to adequately buy dips. Panic and superlatives have ensued on every headline event bringing a discount to the market. Those specific people clamor "Wait and see! Wait and see!" and then the discount is gone. Then here we are having the same conversation about market tops. Ultimately the goal should be to play the game until it ends ...... but 95% traders/investors IMO are over-reliant on being right all the time instead of MANAGING RISK ..... not confirmation bias and "feelings". Nobody can predict the future - I don't care how solid their system is or how intelligent the hindsight analysis sounds. At the end of the day it's all about identifying the risk/reward and being willing to put money on the line to find out if you're right. If you've properly managed the R/R who cares if you incorrectly buy or short the top? Accounts aren't made in one singular trade ...... unless you're a lucky bastard ***Cough @Gil Oren BofA COUGH*** jk. LOL Just my .02 ....
No one is expecting a hike this year. Elections are coming up. Nevertheless, a jobs miss I think would push us to ATH because we finally can start anticipating the rate CUT(!!!).
Oh no you didn't! lol Honestly I don't think the markets would rally on another cut, (I know it wouldn't make me feel any better about buying here) it might even cause a selloff. I think I'm seriously becoming the resident bear... BTW where is Kevin??
no you're right rock, and admittedly i did write out that post from my mobile device and going back and re-reading what i wrote there now i see that i didn't put too much thought into that post before hitting reply lol my bad ... i'm usually better than that with writing out my thoughts ... but that one came out pretty shitty no doubt you're spot on that a vast majority have been too scared away from btfd because of the panic that's created on every binary event ... when the discount presents itself most are too shy to step in and before you know it the discount has vanished ... rinse and repeat +1 to "managing risk" ... no doubt "feelings" and opinions should be kept out of trading at all times imo ... it does no one any good ... i agree it really does not matter if one doesn't buy or short the top correctly as long as they have managed the risk / reward properly i think you hit the nail on the hit when you say that a lot of traders/investors want to be right all the time rather than managing risk ... this is true imo you and i have been around these markets a long time so shame on me for evening bringing up market tops discussions it really has been the same old cycle over and over and over again ... no sense in trying to "feel" where/when the top is ... its a fruitless effort
haven't heard from him in months ... i tried text msging him the other week in fact about making a comeback to stockaholics but didn't hear back from him
Haha there's no shame in what you said. I'm just speaking in general about the phenomena of calling tops and bottoms. I saw you mentioned the dip buy opportunities and then it reminded me that over the years of being here and on the former HotstockMarket site - only a tiny percentage has ever really taken advantage of them. The fear cycle keeps playing out. We've had what, 3-4 really good pullbacks between 10-20% in the last 1.5 years and I'm not clear on who really made any money off them. It's ok to have feelings and opinions on the headline events - but they need to be separated from the trade. Entry/Exit must be something quantifiable and a trader/investor must be willing to act on it if it's advantageous i.e. reward outweighs the risk. When they don't act, it's because of the usual suspects: * They're over-leveraged * They're over-invested * They need to be right 100% of the time * Keyzer Sozer
