Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: April 11th - 15th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Apr 9, 2016.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    Stock Market Today: April 11th - 15th
    [​IMG]
    Lots to rock the market in the week ahead
    Patti Domm | @pattidomm
    Friday, 8 Apr 2016 | 7:12 PM ET CNBC.com

    Fed speakers, and, China, on the back burner lately, could be an issue for markets as it reports a truckload of data — from inflation Monday to GDP and retail sales Friday. Japan's rising yen has made some investors skittish in the past week, and they will certainly be watching Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda when he speaks Tuesday and again in New York on Thursday.

    In the coming week, the major banks, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report earnings, and the quarterly game of beating the lowered bar begins. This is expected to be the third quarter in a row where S&P 500 earnings actually declined, and analysts are currently expecting a drop of 7.9 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.

    Read MoreHow to trade the brutal earning season ahead

    "What we're seeing is analysts did what they typically have done for the last three years, or maybe even longer. They dramatically cut estimates heading into the quarter, and then we see this big beat," said Savita Subramanian, chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "We're expecting about a 4 percent beat relative to the what the street is forecasting ... I don't know if that's enough to inspire investors at this point. We had a big rally off of February lows, and a lot of that was just repricing recession risk."

    Some strategists say the earnings season could trigger a relief rally, just due to the already lowered expectations. In the past four quarters, 68.5 percent of the S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates, according to Thomson Reuters.

    "I think the market will tread water until we get some corporate earnings reports over the next couple of weeks. That will be the first chance for companies to have some guidance on how business is shaping up in the first half of the year," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust. "We should see a reasonable environment throughout the earnings reporting season."

    Subramanian said this quarter is different, and earnings are also challenged by the economy. "What I think is scary about the first quarter is that the two big drags have been earnings and the dollar, but in the first quarter of this year, those drags have been lesser and yes, earnings growth is slated to be worse," she said. "That's not a great setup. The economy seems to have worsened rather than gotten better."

    According to Thomson Reuters, earnings per share for the fourth quarter declined 2.9 percent. "We're going to see a big beat but who cares. We see this every quarter ... I think we need something beyond a beat on lowered expectations to get excited about the market. ... What I would get excited about is a big surprise in sales," she said.

    Subramanian said she expects the S&P 500 to head to 2,000 at year-end, a slight decline. But she does see a positive for the market in that sentiment is not high. "Right now, in the next 12 months, the best statement I can make about it is it's not loved and positioning is light in U.S. equities," she said.

    Read MoreEarnings season often brings volatility spike

    Stocks ended the past week lower, with the S&P 500 off 1.2 percent at 2,047. Oil however surged about 8 percent, helped in part by expectations global producers could come to agreement to freeze production when they meet in Doha April 17. West Texas Intermediatesettled up 6.6 percent Friday to $39.72 per barrel, its best day since February 2012 when it rallied 12 percent.

    Oil analysts expect crude to be volatile into the Doha meeting, and there's plenty of skepticism about a deal being reached at all, since Iran has said it would not freeze, and Saudi Arabia said it would not agree to a freeze if Iran and others don't go along with it.

    In the past week, traders watched to see if stocks could decouple from oil, but the two markets diverged only until crude threatened to move toward the $35 threshold or lower. Therefore, the headlines ahead of Doha could bring some volatility.

    Read MoreFirst-quarter economy looks bleaker by the day

    "Oil is less of a concern to me. Over the intermediate to longer term oil is likely to appreciate over the next 12 months. I think people have misinterpreted the weakness in oil prices to mean economic growth is disappointing. It's not tied to that at all," said McDonald. He said China remains his biggest concern.

    Stock traders have been waiting for earnings, to see how the market handles higher valuations in the face of lowered profits — and the comments of executives about the future will be key.

    Subramanian and McDonald both said it's too soon for the markets to react to the presidential election, but Subramanian said the uncertainty around the election and the outcome could start to come out in corporate comments about capital spending.

    "As we get farther out in the year, they're not particularly thinking about longer-term plans because of the looming uncertainty. I think it might be a replay of 2012," she said.

    Strategists do not expect the election to have much impact on markets until the third quarter, when both parties hold conventions. For months, Wall Street's assumption has been that Hillary Clinton will be the winner, and she is currently viewed more positively than GOP front-runner Donald Trump.

    McDonald said election years are usually positive for stocks, but that will depend on who wins. "The market does not like insurgent candidates because they don't know what the policies will be. An insurgent on either the Democrat or Republican side would not be welcomed by the market," said McDonald.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P HEAT MAP FROM THE PAST WEEK
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead

    • Monday

    Earnings: Alcoa, Pep Boys

    9:25 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley

    1 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Fastenal, CSX, Adtran

    6 a.m. NFIB survey

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    9 a.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

    1 p.m. $24 billion three-year note auction

    2 p.m. Federal budget

    3 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams

    4 p.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Commerce Bancshares, Pier 1, Kinder Morgan, Noble

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales; PPI

    10 a.m. Business inventories

    10:30 a.m. EIA oil inventories

    1 p.m. $20 billion 10-year note auction

    2 p.m. Beige book

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Bank of America, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, PNC Financial, First Republic Bank, FreeportMcMoRan, Snap-on, Advanced Micro, Delta Air Lines, Shaw Communications, Infosys

    8 a.m. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at CFR, New York

    10 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart; Fed Gov. Jerome Powell at Senate Banking subcommittee

    1 p.m. $12 billion 30-year bond auction

    • Friday

    Tax day

    Earnings: Citigroup, Charles Schwab

    8:30 a.m. Empire State survey

    9:15 a.m. Industrial production

    10 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    12:50 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

    4 p.m. Feb TIC data


    [​IMG]STOCKAHOLICS WEEKLY LINKS

    (Are you currently in a trade, or have a trade idea for the board? Come drop by Stockaholics.net main daily thread for discussing all things stock & swing trading!)
    (Live real-time market data for the major indices)
    (thinkorswim tutorials, thinkscipts, tips and tricks to get the most out of your thinkorswim platform.)


    >>>Will this week end Up, Down, or Flat? Vote in --> Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (4/4-4/8)

    [​IMG]

    THE STOCK MARKET THREAD GUIDELINES
    • Respect your fellow traders. This means no insults, derogatory remarks or any other type of behavior that derails the thread.
    • Keep off topic chatter to a minimum. If the market is flat and nothing is happening, we do not mind hearing about your weekend and your hot girlfriend. If the market is moving and trades are flying the best thing to do is post important stock related events that can help your fellow traders.
    • Are you new? Hold your questions until the end of the trading day, or post them in the Stock Market Education section.

    Ding! Ding! Ding!

     
    #1 bigbear0083, Apr 9, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2016
    Sanbo and PrettyBird like this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    Banks Battered As Yen-magedddon Sends Stocks To Worst Week In 2 Months
    This seems to sum the week up...




    An ugly week for stocks despite the best ramping efforts...

    [​IMG]



    Financials were the week's biggest losers... worst week in 2 months

    [​IMG]



    Plenty more to come...

    [​IMG]



    Facebook had a tough time as FANG stocks suffered their worst week in 2 months (-2.2%)...breaking an 8-week winning streak

    [​IMG]

    TSLA ripped on 100% cancellabe pre-orders for a flying unicorn due sometime soon.

    As Digiday reported, some publishers saw their Facebook traffic nosedive last month, even as Facebook pushes initiatives designed to get users to stay in its app. A traffic analytics company, speaking anonymously to avoid getting on Facebook’s bad side, said Facebook traffic across clients, representing some of the biggest publishers, declined about 20 percent from January to March. The data showed the biggest drops came from publishers that have been heavily invested in Instant Articles, the fast-loading mobile initiative.



    Sine the "great" payrolls data, stocks are in the red.. and WTI Crude is epically bid...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields tumbled - making it a positive return week for bonds for the 3rd week of the last 4...

    [​IMG]



    The USD Index ended the week modestly lower (5th down week of the last 6) as AUD weakness offset JPY strength...

    [​IMG]



    USDJPY suffered its 2nd worst week in 3 years, erasing all the post-QE3, post-QQE2 gains (JPY devaluation)...

    [​IMG]



    Gold & Silver had their best week in a month as crude soared rather idiotically today to a yuuge win for the week (and copper remained mired in the reality of un-growthiness)...

    [​IMG]



    Oil algos jumped on every twitch of a headline and turn of a datapoint today no matter what it said - clearly their only goal was to close above the 100-day moving average...

    [​IMG]



    Oil and Stocks decoupled again... inverting last week's decoupling...

    [​IMG]



    So what happens next?

    [​IMG]



    Charts: Bloomberg
     
    PrettyBird likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    Indices % changes as of market close 4/8/16-
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the week-
    [​IMG]
     
    #3 bigbear0083, Apr 9, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2016
    PrettyBird likes this.
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    April Expiration Week Has Been Strong
    [​IMG]
    April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 34 years on expiration day with an average gain of approximately 0.20%. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA have been up seven of the past ten expiration days. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 34 years to expiration day. Average weekly gains are in excess of 1% for DJIA and S&P 500. The bullish bias of April expiration also persists during the week after. DJIA has posted a full-week gain in ten of the last twelve weeks following expiration.

    [​IMG]
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Market stalls just below Q4 highs and rolls over
    [​IMG]
    April, DJIA’s best performing month of the year since 1950, has not gotten off to a great start. April 1 and April 6 were solid, but the other three trading days were losers and DJIA is down 0.8% for the month as of today’s close. Once again, earnings and global growth concerns are at the top of the list of reasons for today’s selloff.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Just a few days of weakness has caused Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ to turn negative. The shift in momentum also occurred within a few percentage points of the highs from Q4 of last year for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ’s rally off the February lows was not as strong and it came up well short of its highs. It now appears the market’s next move will be lower. DJIA 17000, S&P 500 1993 and NASDAQ 4725, last month’s monthly pivot point resistance level (red dashed line in March on each chart above), appear to be the first area of support.

    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Changing seasons of the market: Best, Worst & QE
    [​IMG]
    Recently our posts have looked at the “Best” & “Worst” Months, 8th Year of Presidential administrations and a comparison of Fed QE programs and the S&P 500. These posts prompted a few interesting inquiries that we will try to answer today with the following S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns since 1930 chart.

    Click here to view full…

    [​IMG]
    In the above chart we have plotted five seasonal patterns using various beginning and ending date ranges. First off, let’s focus on the orange line. This is what the S&P 500 did between 1930 and 1949. Back then farming and agriculture was still a significant portion of the U.S. economy and thus the stock market. Harvest season and its cash flows was a prime driver of the S&P 500. The market’s seasonal low was typically in late May or early June, just before harvesting began and its seasonal high was generally in late August or early September as harvest season was beginning to wind down.

    Around 1950, just after the end of WWII, farming and agriculture’s sway over the market began to wane as the middle class began to blossom and the modern day consumer appeared. Fewer and fewer people were living and working on farms, instead they choose the city and suburban life. This caused a shift in the market’s behavior as well, represented by the purple, post WWII (1950-2015) line. Note how little the pattern has changed over the past 21 years (black Line). Now the seasonal low is typically early in the year or in September/October and the year generally ends at or near its highs. From 1950-2015, the S&P 500 has also made the bulk of its gains in just six months, November through April and its usually flat to slightly higher from May to October. It is this pattern that led Yale Hirsch to publish the “Best Six Months” back in 1986.

    The blue line that towers above all else and finishes just over 15% is the seasonal pattern of the S&P 500 during the five years (2009-2014) the Fed was engaged in QE. Although the data set is limited, it is still clear the significant impact Fed QE had on the market and its seasonal pattern. Outside of the occasional hiccup, S&P 500 basically went straight up in a consistent pattern for five years straight. The “Best Six Months” became the “Great Six Months” and the “Worst Six Months” became the “Still Pretty Good Months.” QE ended at the end of 2014 and S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere since. Absent QE, the return of the traditional “Worst Six Months” seems inevitable.

    _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Why Sell in May Is Crucial This Year
    [​IMG]
    For the uninitiated, “Sell in May” comes from the old British adage, “Sell in May and go away and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.” This saying is based on the drop-off in business and banking activity in London at the end of the London Season in May. Historically, English aristocracy, merchants and bankers would migrate from the hot, sweltering city up to the country for the summer months and return after the St. Leger’s Stakes thoroughbred horse race, the final leg of the British Triple Crown, in mid-September. Much like the U.S. Memorial Day to Labor Day summer doldrums, this collective sociological human activity drives this most consistent of behavioral finance patterns.

    At today’s close the S&P 500 is down 1.6% for the Best Six Months (BSM) from month end October 2015 to now, but up 2.9% from our October 5th MACD Buy Signal. Since 1950 when S&P is down for BSM, year is down 71.4% of the time or 10 of 14 years. The average loss for the year is -9.0%. The following Worst Six Months (WSM) fared a bit better with two less losses. Only 1982 and 2009 were followed by big turnarounds. But they provide outstanding buy opportunities in WSM in all but 2 instances, 1973 and 2008, as the next BSM were up 84.7% of the time with average gains of 11.7%.

    When BSM is up the year is up 84.6% of the time – 44 of 52 years – for an average gain of 13.4% and decent numbers in subsequent periods though less the Down BSM for the next BSM and Next Year.

    Previous negative BSM, except 2009 have been excellent warnings. Even 1982 saw the S&P drop 12% from the end of April to the low on August 12, 1982. Seasonality can also be an indicator, especially when they perform contrary to the historical results. Edson Gould’s salient words, “If the market does not rally, as it should during bullish seasonal periods, it is a sign that other forces are stronger and that when the seasonal period ends those forces will really have their say,” have us concerned for a market slide during the WSM this year and beyond.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    Stock Market Technical Analysis for Week Ending 4.8.2016
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
     
    PrettyBird likes this.
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 04.10.16
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
  8. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,189
    Likes Received:
    2,182
  9. YLC

    YLC Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    15
    Not sure if this belongs in this thread or the Bear thread but I was curious on everyone's thoughts. I may have also posted this back in the old forum.

    Something that stuck with me all the way back in my very first year of high school, was a business teacher saying every 8-10 years there'll be a market correction or collapse. It's been 7 years since 2009 and we've seen an insane rally.

    upload_2016-4-10_0-29-44.png

    Without much analysis at all, just simply look at the chart it looks like it's setting up for a downward trend. Could this be the start of a big correction?
     
    Administrator and bigbear0083 like this.
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,358
    Likes Received:
    8,459
    @YLC

    i would say so! thx for posting up that chart as i seldom view the very long-term charts often as you had posted up ... that is quite the rocket shot when you really zoom out like that wow ... last year and this year's correction almost looks like a blip on the radar in the big picture of that monster rally ... and even despite all of that we've seen over the past year ... we're still within striking distance of the highs ... pretty amazing this bull market ... is this the start of a much larger correction? idk ... but you're right about every 7 years or so being about your typical length of a bull market give or take a few years ... we'll see ... i'm really curious to see how this market reacts in the fall when we have our presidential elections ... hmm
     
  11. nft2

    nft2 New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2016
    Messages:
    8
    Likes Received:
    4
    All I know is this market is going to rip me a new one when the bear market finally hits. I only started following the markets in 2010 and I've not seen first hand what a bear market is like.

    My SPY position is all retirement account anyway, so I'll just be buying the whole way down. It won't be a huge deal in the end since I'm only 26.

    Really looking at picking up some oil ETFs (probably XLE) for that account in the coming weeks.

    Liking the look of the new board by the way.
     
  12. YLC

    YLC Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    15
    Earnings reports from Wednesday to Friday is what I'm watching.
     
  13. weather

    weather New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2016
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    5
    Looking for a dip mon into tues, then the fed beige book pump, then analyst underestimates kick in to give a boost into options expiration which 75% of the time, burn the shorts..... put buying time then
     
    StockJock-e likes this.
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,189
    Likes Received:
    2,182
  15. MaximusAnalysis

    MaximusAnalysis Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    456
    Likes Received:
    141
    #ES_F $ES_F #SPY levels to watch 2059.50 / / 2048 / / 2036.75
     
  16. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,786
    Likes Received:
    943
    yea i only started in the markets last year june, 2 months before that august flash crash, to say i got caught with my pants down, was an understatement, to just wake up and see all of your stocks down 10-15% when your new to the game, can really scare you out of the game haha. im ready for a bear market though, i have a nice sized cash position now, no more fully invested, thats what august 24th taught me.
     
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,189
    Likes Received:
    2,182
    Added a facebook block at the bottom of the page, give us some likes because you are cool like that!
     
  18. MaximusAnalysis

    MaximusAnalysis Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    456
    Likes Received:
    141
    $CL_F #CL_F #USO levels to watch 41.17 / / 39.58
     
  19. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,189
    Likes Received:
    2,182
    USO right on this resistance level last week!

    [​IMG]
     
    DeCoty likes this.
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    7,189
    Likes Received:
    2,182
    Besides FB, markets are pretty green here this morning

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.

Share This Page