haha, yeah sure seems like we're back in the bad new is great news for the markets again i wonder how much of this rally can be attributed to the FED and how much of it is on trade talks. probably a little of both, but is it equally the same? i wouldn't be surprised if it's more the FED than trade to be honest. ever since the FED turned dovish, this market has been nothing but straight up and it has not looked back. i suspect, like you @stock1234, that we're probably on track to make a new ATH in the SPX cash, perhaps this month, absent a black swan event. btw, i'm not sure how true these rumors are, just stumbled across it during my quick reads for the afternoon, but are we to see a rate cut this year? seems like this rumor is growing louder and louder. i wonder what the market reaction would be to a cut at this point? moon? hell, i say forget the cut, let's just go straight to QE infinity again!
I feel like it is more about FED, just my personal opinion though of course I really feel like the market doesn't care if we will get a China deal soon as long as both sides are talking and not leaving the table If Q1 earnings beat expectations and the guidance for future quarters are okay, then I wouldn't be shocked at all to see us hitting ATH late this month I would be surprised to see the FED hiking at all this year, but probably would be pretty surprised too if they go for a rate cut. Equity markets seem to love the low interest rate environment, so I guess the market doesn't mind the rate cut as long as we don't have a recession. Anyway, feel like this market could be in a pretty good shape as long as the FED not hiking further and we continue to get 2% growth or so for the economy
markets looking overbought as of today - might expect a pullback. Hopefully not too much and resume the upward trend.
Wondering what anyone thinks about HIIQ? big moves today, here's an interesting bull analysis debunking the short thesis.
Cloud stocks getting knocked down (CRM, ADBE ~2-3%). Growth stocks continue their recent underperformance of value stocks. I did some research yesterday, and I've come around to what @stock1234 has been talking about, a new high in the next month or two. I mean didn't doubt him, but I had to look for confirmation haha. But I'm starting to think it will be value stocks that take us there. Spoiler there=blowoff top? I wasn't sure how we get to new highs without the growth stocks leading, but looks like it will happen. So what are some good value stocks? I'm not asking for the supremo value stock, but I'm interested in a good representative of what a value stock looks like that has been performing well (so nothing like MNK that has a forward P/E=2.8), and then maybe I can refine my view. Would it be airlines? We did ALK in the charting contest a few weeks ago. Kinda low profit margins there though. Would it be banks? I've liked GRMN, less than 6% growth rate so I think that qualifies it as a value stock. Maybe it'll just be AAPL that will lead us higher, still 16% below its high point...And they can move suppliers with them.
Energy and banks are considered as the value sectors. I don’t really like the banks in this low rate environment, so maybe energy could outperform and possibly leading us higher. For tech I guess AAPL and IBM can be considered as value stocks, will see if they will outperform growth sectors like the cloud or FANG names
oh man what busy day for running errands for me today ... missed a lot of today's action just saw this from earlier this morning. job claims at new cycle lows ... lowest in half a century
speaking of "jobs" we get the nfp's tomorrow AM. i'll be interesting to see if the adp confirms nfp. lately the nfp's have been a nonevent, but i wonder if the numbers are good, do we head down? or are we currently in all news is good news?
Haha with the FED seems to be on hold for rest of the year, I guess good news is good news and the market could shrug off a miss as long as it isn't super bad
Good Friday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a good trading day ahead on this final trading day of the week.
Morning Lineup - Quiet Ahead of Jobs Ever since it moved back out of inversion last week, the yield curve has taken a back seat in the conversation. Currently, the spread between the 10-year and 3-month US treasuries is at 12 basis points, and if you look at the chart below, you can see that it has been trying to hook higher in the last couple of days. Where it goes in the short-term, though, is likely to be guided by today's Non-Farm Payrolls report. A much better than expected reading will likely move the curve even steeper and dismiss further concerns over inversion, while a weaker than expected print has the real potential to move us much closer back to inversion and bring those concerns back to the fore.
A pretty perfect jobs report for the market I guess. Strong headline number while the wage gains not nearly strong enough for the FED to think about hiking rates anytime soon
