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Stock Market Today: April 29th - May 3rd, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Apr 26, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 29th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Alphabet, Restaurant Brands, Loews, CNA Financial, Continental Resources, MGM Resorts, Canadian National Railway, NXP Semiconductor, AK Steel, Ethan Allen, Leggett and Platt, Texas Roadhouse, Transocean, Molina Healthcare, TrueBlue, Vornado Realty Kemper, Diamond Offshore

    8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending

    • Tuesday

    Fed begins two-day meeting

    Earnings: Apple, Amgen, Merck, Pfizer, General Motors, General Electric, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Arconic, Corning, Encana, Eaton, Seagate Technology, Blue Apron, Chubb, Ingersoll-Rand, HCA, KKR, Vertex Pharma, Akamai, FireEye, Groupon, Advanced Micro, Mondelez, Samsung

    8:30 a.m. Employment cost index

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case Shiller

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Wednesday

    Monthly vehicle sales

    Earnings: BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Clorox, CME Group, Estee Lauder, Royal Caribbean, Humana, Hilton, AMC Networks, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Sealed Air, Entergy, Johnson Controls, Yum Brands, Qualcomm, Host hotels, Allstate, American Water Works, Apache, Hartford Financial, Square, Suncor, Williams Cos, American Financial Group, Metlife, Marathon Oil, Cheesecake Factory, Fitbit, Owens-Illinois

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment
    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 2:00 p.m. Fed statement 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Dow, Volkswagen, Delphi Automotive, Shake Shack, Tableau Software, Weight Watchers, U.S. Steel, Discovery, Kellogg, PG&E, Generac, Dunkin Brands, Wayfair, Under Armour, Cigna, Church and Dwight, Sotheby’s, Gilead Sciences, Activision Blizzard, Yeti, Schneider, Kimco, Expedia, Monster Beverage, Motorola Solutions, Fluor, Con Ed, Eldorado Gold, Beazer Homes

    9:30 a.m. Initial claims
    8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Friday

    Earnings: Adidas, Fiat Chrysler, TransCanada, American Tower, HSBC, Nordisk, Dominion Energy, Noble Energy, CBOE Holdings, Equinor

    8:30 a.m. Employment
    9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    Saturday

    Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks, Bonds, VIX, Dollar, & Gold Rise After China's Worst Week In 6 Months
    An odd week of "buy all the things" - Stocks up, VIX up, Bonds up; Dollar up, Gold up.

    [​IMG]

    China shit the bed (worst week in 6 months), bonds bid on great growth (weak sales, inflation), semis suddenly puke after massive surge (SoKo GDP, Semi sales collapse, INTC, XLNX...), crude crushed on green shoots (Trump trumps OPEC as demand forecasts upheld), and gold gained on a higher dollar - none of these 'oddities' matter, stocks are at record highs and AMZN is awesome...





    [​IMG]



    European markets were more mixed with Germany's DAX best, France just green but UK, Spain, and Italy in the red...

    [​IMG]



    US equities initially shrugged off the blockbuster GDP print but then the machines embraced it as volumes collapsed...

    [​IMG]



    And were mixed on the week with Dow Industrial and Transports in the red as Small Caps and Nasdaq outperformed...

    [​IMG]

    Nasdaq's 5th weekly rise in a row, Dow and Trannies' first down week in 5 (despite a late-day panic to get green).



    Europe and US remain around the same YTD as China leads (but is reverting)...

    [​IMG]



    Volume continues to collapse...

    [​IMG]



    S&P managed to hold above its prior record closing high of 2930.75 (but below record intraday high of 2940.91)...

    [​IMG]



    VIX ended the week higher despite the S&P green...

    [​IMG]



    Breadth continues to lag...

    [​IMG]



    Semis finally hit a speed-bump with the second worst week of the year...

    [​IMG]



    AMZN's beat and 1-day delivery lifted the stock and Nasdaq; but hammered TGT and WMT..

    [​IMG]



    Tesla bloodbath'd back to 2-year lows, breaking to levels where Musk may face Margin Calls...

    [​IMG]

    Catching down its ugly bond reality...

    [​IMG]



    Ford overtook Tesla's market cap for the first time since April...

    [​IMG]



    MSFT overtook AAPL and AMZN, nearing the trillion dollar market cap level...

    [​IMG]



    Stocks and bonds bid on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Despite the strong GDP print, Treasury yields tumbled on the day (and week)...

    [​IMG]



    With 10Y Yield back below 2.50%!!

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar ended higher on the week but lagged in the back half of the week, sliding notably after GDP...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos had an ugly week after plunging overnight on BitFinex fraud headlines...

    [​IMG]



    WTI Crude suffered its first losing week in the last 8 weeks and gold had its best week since the start of Feb...

    [​IMG]



    WTI tumbled on the day (worst day since Xmas Eve) after Trump's OPEC comments...

    [​IMG]



    But held at its 50DMA (after breaking below a key retracement level)...

    [​IMG]



    Note that 2019 has seen the fastest rise in gas pump-prices since 2006..

    [​IMG]



    Gold had its best day in 6 weeks after bouncing off the 200DMA on Tuesday...

    [​IMG]



    Gold also gained against the yuan - reverting back to the 8650-8700 range...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we wonder, with the tumble in global money supply, is the bounce over?

    [​IMG]

    And bear in mind Rosie's reality-check on the GDP data...

    [​IMG]
    David [email protected]



    This was a low-quality GDP report. All one-offs - lower imports, higher inventories & Pentagon spending. Real final private sales a puny 1.3%. Removing more lipstick from this pig shows cyclically-adjusted GDP contracting at a 2% annual rate; deepest decline in nearly a decade .


    464

    12:34 PM - Apr 26, 2019
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    272 people are talking about this



    [​IMG]
    David [email protected]



    The proof of the underlying soft underbelly to GDP lies in the price. That 0.9% reading in the GDP price deflator was the lowest since the first quarter of 2016, but back then, oil prices were melting whereas in Q1 they soared.
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Typical May Trading: Just a Couple of Positive Areas
    [​IMG]
    Once again it is that time of the year where we increasingly see and hear “Sell in May.” But when exactly in May is the “best” time to sell? Based upon the last 21 years of data, the best time could be early in May. The month has opened well, on average, recently with strength on the first trading day and on the second for the most part. Afterwards, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 all tend to drift sideways to lower until around May’s eighteenth trading day or so. It is on this day the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 begin to rally to finish the month. Beware though, this late-May rally typically fizzles before it can exceed the highs reached earlier in the month.

    Its Official – Happy 10th Birthday Bull Market
    [​IMG]
    Yesterday’s new all-time closing high by S&P 500 finally made it official. The current bull market is now in its eleventh year and is the second longest since 1949 and second best by performance with a 333.6% gain from its March 9, 2009 low through its closing high. Since 1949, the longest bull market lived over twelves years from December 1987 to March 2000 and gained 582.1%. Thus far the current bull has endured five corrections ranging from 10.2% to 19.8%. Tame inflation, a dovish Fed and the prospects for continued earnings growth suggest this bull is likely to continue.
    [​IMG]
    End of the Best Six Months. Should You Sell in May?
    [​IMG]
    It’s hard for us not to be associated with “Sell in May” and we welcome the opportunity it provides to discuss seasonality and share our analysis and our evidence-based, time-tested and historically-proven “Best Six Months Switching Strategy.” First of all we do not simply Sell in May and go away. And we don’t sell anything until we get a technical confirmation from our MACD Seasonal Sell Signal. When we do get that MACD Sell Signal we will sell some positions in our Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio and pick up some bond positions as well as other portfolio maneuvers.

    Because of the elevated level of risk that has been historically observed during the “Worst Six Months” of the year and its historically tepid returns, reducing long exposure and developing a defensive strategy is the approach we take in the Almanac InvestorStock and ETF Portfolios. We do not merely “sell in May and go away.” Instead we take some profits, trim or outright sell underperforming stock and ETF positions, tighten stop losses and limit adding new long exposure to positions from sectors that have a demonstrated record of outperforming during the period.

    For those with a lower risk tolerance or a desire to take a break from trading, the “Worst Months” are a great opportunity to unwind longs and move into the relative safety of cash, Treasury bonds, gold and/or some combination of. Preservation of capital may be more important than growth and with historical averages and frequency of gains reduced; the “Worst Six Months” are a good time to simply step aside if you prefer. August, September and/or October have provided some excellent buying opportunities in recent years and could do the same again this year.

    Sure the market got slammed in the first two months (November-December) of the Best Six Months in 2018, nothing’s perfect. It happens. We stuck it out, did not panic at the December 24 low and road the recovery rally. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is undeniable and it still works. There have been off periods throughout its history. The full history is on our website and in the Almanac. But here are a couple of graphs to illustrate.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    With new highs today for S&P 500 and NASDAQ, our positive January Indicator Trifectaand historical Pre-Election year strength this Worst Six Months or “Sell in May” period is likely to be mild, but as we highlighted yesterday May has been known for rough patches as are the of the Worst Four Months (July-October) as you can see in the chart in yesterday’s post.

    Next Bump in Pre-Election Year Rally Could Arise in May
    [​IMG]
    As of today’s close, DJIA is up 13.6% year-to-date as of today’s close. S&P 500 is up 16.0% and NASDAQ is at 20.8%. Compared to average pre-election year historical performance since 1950 graphed in the charts below, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all still comfortably above past pre-election year average performance for this point of the year. Aside from a brief excursion on the second trading day of the year, 2019 has largely tracked pre-election year historical performance and then some. Should this trend continue, then the next area of concern is just after mid-May. This is also right around the time Q1 earnings season is beginning to wrap and focus shifts to Q2 estimates. However, should late May weakness materialize, it could prove to be a fair entry point as the market usually rallies through June to mid-July.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    B.I.G. Tips - Early Earnings Season Analysis
    Fri, Apr 26, 2019

    More than 500 stocks have reported their first quarter numbers so far this earnings season, which gives us a pretty large sample size to start analyzing overall trends. Through today, 67% of stocks that have reported this season have beaten bottom-line consensus EPS estimates. That's a strong reading relative to the historical average of roughly 60% going back to 1999 (first chart below).

    While the bottom line beat rate is strong, the top line has so far been lacking. As shown in the second chart below, only 53.6% of companies have managed to report stronger than expected revenues this season. This is definitely a concern now that we're already about a quarter of the way through the reporting period. We would note, though, that last season we saw a similar trend as the top-line beat rate started very low before rebounding by the end of the reporting period and actually showing a sequential increase.

    On another note, we've seen an interesting shift in guidance compared to the last two quarters. We're also seeing some negative signs when it comes to how stock prices are reacting to earnings reports.

    [​IMG]

    The Bespoke Report -- With All-Time Highs Achieved, Time For Earnings To Deliver
    Fri, Apr 26, 2019

    The S&P 500 shrugged off disappointing mid-week global economic data and some soft Friday earnings to close the week at a new all-time high. Just about half of the S&P 500’s market cap has now reported, though smaller-cap stocks have a lot more left in the tank this earnings season. So far, results have been a bit mixed, especially when it comes to top-line revenues; with stocks back at record levels, earnings need to deliver and finish the season strong.

    Below is a look at asset class total returns using key ETFs. For each ETF, we show total returns year-to-date, since the last all-time high for the S&P 500 on 9/20/18, and since the bull market began back on March 9th, 2009.

    [​IMG]

    10 Observations on New Highs

    We wrote about the new record high for the S&P 500 Index Wednesday . This is such a big market event we wanted to share some additional thoughts—10 of them in fact—on this market milestone:
    1. The new high secured March 9, 2019, as the 10th anniversary of the bull market. If the S&P 500 hadn’t made a new high before the next bear market, this bull would have ended short of the 10-year mark.
    2. Don’t fear new highs. Historically, buying stocks at all-time highs has been productive over the long term, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day. Going back to 1950, the average 12-month gain from a new high for the S&P 500 has been 9.8%, excluding dividends.[​IMG]
    3. When new highs have been more than six months apart, as the last two were, average gains in the S&P 500 historically have been about 12% in the 12 months after the new record.
    4. For those worried that a new high means sub-par long-term returns, consider that the average 5-year annualized gain in the S&P 500 from all-time highs is 9%. For 10 years, it’s a still solid 7.4% (excluding dividends).
    5. History has shown stocks’ strong start to the year could mean further gains down the road. The average rest-of-year gain for the S&P 500 after a double-digit first quarter rally has been 6%.
    6. Global growth is supportive. Owning stocks when economic conditions are improving, as they are in the United States and China in particular, tends to be rewarding.
    7. We don’t think stocks are overvalued. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio (PE) based on consensus analysts’ estimates for the next 12 months is 16.7, very reasonable considering low interest rates and inflation.
    8. Not all the possible good news is priced in. Investors may get more than they expect out of the U.S.-China trade deal, which could boost business confidence and capital investment.
    9. Earnings may be a positive catalyst. First-quarter earnings season is off to a good start overall, and we think 2019 expectations are too low.
    10. Sentiment is not overly bullish. Just 33.5% of individual investors are bullish, according to the American Association of Individual Investors. Other sentiment measures we follow are far from euphoric.
    Looking ahead, we believe there are enough potential positive catalysts to propel the S&P 500 to our year-end fair value target of 3,000 this year. At the same time, we acknowledge the risks, particularly overseas—Europe faces structural challenges, lackluster growth, and upcoming Brexit hurdles. The possibility of a pickup in volatility against a favorable fundamental backdrop supports our recommended market weight equities allocation.

    The Waiting Game for Record Highs

    The wait is over.

    After more than seven months, the S&P 500 Index notched a fresh all-time closing high of 2,933.68 on April 23. To get here, investors have weathered back-and-forth in trade negotiations, a historic government shutdown, unrelenting Brexit headlines, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) U-turn in policy, and signs of a global slowdown.

    Fortunately, U.S. stocks have powered through record highs after a prolonged dry spell. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 has climbed an average of 12.9% in the 12 months after snapping at least 6-month long record high drought, based on data since 1950.

    [​IMG]

    “It has been a long time since the S&P 500 scored a new high, yet this could actually hint at future gains,” said LPL Research Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The waiting game for record highs may be tough, but it has proven the durability of this bull market based on sound fundamentals.”

    Stocks’ rapid rebound this year has been impressive, especially 10 years into the current bull market. The S&P 500 has rallied more than 20% from the December lows amid the Fed’s pause in rate hikes, progress in trade talks, and an uptick in economic data after a soft beginning to 2019.

    Historically, when U.S. stocks have gone six months without a record, investors have had to contend with a significantly longer waiting period (and more market volatility). The benchmark has taken an average of 25 months to post new highs in times it hasn’t hit a record within six months.

    We’ve maintained that the late-2018 sell-off was overdone, and we see a compelling case for equities near these levels based on sound economic fundamentals. However, the recovery has been arguably a bit fast considering some of the reasons for the decline have yet to be resolved. We think the S&P 500 could eventually move higher and make a run at our 3,000 fair value target, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see volatility pick up over the next few months.

    Signs of Steepening

    In March, we wrote that the Treasury yield curve was sound asleep. Since then, a quick inversion has jolted it awake.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield has climbed for four straight weeks, the longest streak since November 2016. That spread fell to near a cycle low at the end of March, the same time the three-month to 10-year yield spread inverted (long-term rates fell below short-term rates).

    [​IMG]

    The 10-year yield closed below the 3-month yield from March 22 to March 28. Since then, the longer end of the curve has perked up, boosting the 2-year and 10-year spread to a two-month high of 20 basis points (0.20%).

    “We’ve been encouraged by the recent recovery in long-term yields as global data have improved,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “As the year progresses, sound economic fundamentals should eventually prevail over global uncertainty.”

    Bond investors have increasingly focused on the shape of the yield curve over the past few years as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike campaign boosted short-term yields at a faster pace than long-term yields. Yield curve inversions have preceded previous recessions, although inversions right before a recession have typically been deeper and prolonged.

    The yield curve is still historically flat, but we see signals that longer-term steepening could be in process. Economic data have noticeably improved over the past several weeks, and inflation remains healthy. Buying pressure in Treasuries has also likely eased as rates have picked up globally amid progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The Fed has also committed to patience until there is more clarity on global conditions, giving the curve some breathing room to normalize.

    Overall, we expect improving economic conditions and slightly higher inflation to lift the 10-year yield to 3 — 3.25% at the end of 2019. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2-year yield climb slightly if stronger growth forces the Fed to implement one hike in the second half of the year. Based on our forecast, we’d expect to see the 2-year and 10-year yield spread increase 25 basis points (0.25%) or more through the end of the year.

    Digging Out of a Soft Patch

    Leading data released recently have confirmed the U.S. economy could be digging out of its soft patch.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 3.1% year over year in March. Year-over-year LEI growth accelerated, breaking a five-month streak of slowing that coincided with disappointing signs in other economic data.


    [​IMG]

    The LEI, which is composed of 10 leading indicators, is one of our favorite gauges to watch because of its prescient track record. The index has fallen negative year over year before all nine recessions since 1955. Even though LEI growth has slowed recently, its long-term change remains squarely in positive territory.

    “We’re seeing some signs of growth break through as global headwinds subside,” said LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Even though coincident data have slumped recently, leading indicators point to an economic rebound.”

    Initial jobless claims fell to 192K, declining to a cycle low for three straight weeks for the first time since 2009. While most labor-market data serve as lagging indicators of U.S. economic health, jobless claims are a leading indicator. Historically, a 75–100K increase in claims over a 26-week period has been associated with a recession.

    Retail sales rose 1.6% in March, the biggest monthly gain since September 2017. Retail sales’ impressive gain last month could have directly benefitted first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), as consumer spending constitutes about 70% of GDP. At the very least, improving consumer data show individuals feel more empowered about the economic outlook compared to a few months ago.

    On Friday, we’ll get more details on just how soft the U.S. economy’s soft patch was in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate GDP grew 1.6%, while regional Fed bank models forecast growth from 1.4% to 2.8%.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.26.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for April 26th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.28.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 4.29.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 4.29.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 4.30.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 4.30.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 5.1.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 5.1.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 5.2.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 5.2.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 5.3.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 5.3.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AAPL $AMD $GE $SQ $SPOT $GOOGL $CVS $SHOP $MA $QCOM $MCD $TWLO $MDR $PFE $X $MRK $WDC $GM $ATVI $BP $AKS $ON (Sat) $L $ABMD $AMRN $TNDM $TEVA $YETI $CI $GLW $W $MGM $ECA $STX $ZBRA $SALT $ARLP $APRN $AMGN $FEYE $FTNT $ANET $LLY)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I used to play an MMORPG and there were guys that would "data mine" to find upcoming features (new areas, new skills, etc) that were being added. Basically the game coders would upload new code to the servers, but it would be a while before the code went live (the game always made the updates come out on Tuesday). In the meantime, the data miners (means something else nowadays) had a chance to look into the code before the updates came out.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-47630849
    Jane Manchun Wong: The woman scooping Silicon Valley

    Jane Manchun Wong is a 23-year-old technology blogger and app researcher famous for uncovering new features before they launch.

    By reverse-engineering popular apps such as Facebook and Instagram, she is able to preview changes that are still in testing mode. She shares the designs from her Twitter account, which is watched closely by journalists eager for a scoop - and the companies hoping to avoid landing at the centre of one.

    Feature-hunting is just a hobby for Ms Wong. She doesn't profit from her scoops, although she has been offered jobs by media organisations eager for her exclusives.

    But some of Ms Wong's scoops are so big that they threaten to impact the stock market, leading some to accuse her of insider trading.

    https://twitter.com/wongmjane
     
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  13. Stoch

    Stoch Active Member

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    Friday just didn't make sense to me.

    The Atlanta fed estimated GDP at 2.7, much higher than the estimates of 1.9-2.3 expected
    1/ So Thursday I go long SPY, which gaped lower on the number and finally recovered at the close
    2/ I went long the dollar/yen the night before, which spiked up and then collapsed after the announcement. I guess good economic data and possibility of higher rates or less likelihood of rate cuts are bad for the dollar?
    3/ Earlier in the week I bought a few oil stocks on the recent run-up, so oil falls 3.7% on stronger economic number and a weaker dollar?

    I should probably stick to technical analysis since the fundamentals seem opposite of what I expected
     
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  14. Adriana Lowe

    Adriana Lowe New Member

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    U.S. stocks capped the week with a record close on better-than-forecast earnings. Treasury yields fell after data signalled moderate inflation.

    upload_2019-4-29_18-3-39.png
    Chart from Sigma by Hydra X

    S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high of 2,939.88 after posting a 1.2% gain for the week following positive surprises from earnings releases. U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, beating estimates of 2.3%. Underlying data indicated softer demand, with weak consumer spending and a gauge of inflation coming in below policy makers’ target.

    Despite breaking through to new all-time highs, a note of caution that momentum indicators do not seem to be validating price action. Bearish stochastic divergence has formed, in tandem with decreasing volumes.


    upload_2019-4-29_18-3-48.png
    Chart from Sigma by Hydra X

    Meanwhile, in China, the Shanghai Composite endured its worst week since October, demonstrating the influence that Beijing continues to yield over its markets. The index lost 5.6% for the week after the government signalled that it would pare back support for the economy amid evidence of a recovery.

    The index has lost all its gains after breaking out of a bull flag earlier in the year; it has retraced back to ~3,080 support levels.


    upload_2019-4-29_18-3-57.png
    Chart from Sigma by Hydra X

    A look at the comparison between the S&P 500 to the Shanghai Composite (in blue) shows that correlations have broken down since mid-Feb, despite the vicissitudes imparted upon both markets together by ongoing of US-China trade talks.


    upload_2019-4-29_18-4-11.png
    Chart from Sigma by Hydra X

    Semiconductors took a hit after Intel slashed its earnings outlook for 2019 amid a slowdown in equipment spending by cloud computing companies and headwinds from China. Intel lost 8.99% on its announcement, gapping down to close at $52.43 and forming a spinning top after finding support at ~$52.

    upload_2019-4-29_18-4-22.png
    Chart from Sigma by Hydra X

    Amazon reported Q1 results, beating EPS estimates by $2.44 and doubling its profit. It also announced that it woud invest $800m to make one-day free shipping the new standard for all core Prime members. The stock continues its ascent towards $2,000.
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  16. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Never expect anything but manipulation of the markets on economic data.
    It's a 50/50 chance just like playing earnings.
    I make it a point to stay away from trading on news days.
    The large players tend to swing the markets in large moves trying to hit stops, or sucker others into buying when they are getting ready to sell.
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
     
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  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Morning Cy!
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup - Big Data and Earnings Week
    Mon, Apr 29, 2019

    While this will be the busiest week of the earnings season, the pace of reports to start the week has been relatively quiet with just 21 companies reporting so far this morning. Of those reports, just over 60% have exceeded EPS guidance while slightly more than half have exceeded revenue guidance. This afternoon, the pace will pick up considerably with close to 60 companies reporting headlined by Alphabet (GOOGL). In economic data this morning, Personal Income came in weaker than expected at a rate of 0.1% vs estimates for growth of 0.4%, while Personal Spending was higher at 0.9% vs expectations for growth of 0.7%. Spending more and earning less! The only other economic indicator of note today is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30 Eastern.

    One factor causing Americans to spend more may be the incessant increase of prices at the pump. Even with crude oil trading lower for a fourth straight day, it hasn't been enough to counter the seasonal uptick that is normal for gas prices at this time of year. According to AAA, the national average price of a gallon of gas currently stands at $2.89. The most painful thing for consumers, though, has been that the increase has been constant. As shown in the chart below, it has now been a record 76 days since the national average price of gasoline last saw a one day decline in a streak that has now dwarfed every prior one since data begins in 2004.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    There it is:eek:... record territory again
     
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