Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 3rd! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: N/A. Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Monthly vehicle sales 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending 10:30 a.m. New York Fed President William Dudley press briefing 3:00 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker 5:00 p.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker Tuesday 8:30 a.m. Trade deficit 10:00 a.m. Factory orders 4:30 p.m. Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo Wednesday 8:15 a.m. ADP payrolls 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM non-manufacturing 2:00 p.m. Fed minutes Thursday 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims Friday 8:30 a.m. Employment report 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 12:15 p.m. New York Fed's Dudley speaks on financial regulation 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit Watch: American jobs hurt by automation?
Stocks End Best Quarter In Years With A Whimper But Gold Is Winner So Q1 is over and this happened... And the message is clear... Gold wins... It's been an interesting quarter... Nasdaq best Quarter since Q4 2013 S&P best quarter since Q4 2015 Dow up 6 quarters in a row - since The Shanghai Accord (the longest streak since Q4 2006) Financials up four quarters in a row USD Index second worst quarter since Q3 2010 Gold second best quarter since Q3 2012 WTI Crude's worst quarter (and first losing quarter) since Q4 2015 US Crude Production had biggest quarter since Q3 2014 Nasdaq the big winner in US equities... (Trannies and Small Caps melted up to green in the last few days) Energy was Q1's big loser, Financials managed to bounce off unch, and Tech was the big gainer... Only 2Y Yields were higher over Q1 - that's with 2 rate hikes-ish... The USD Index was a one-way trade in Q1 - down! And for the month of March, gold also led (though most assets were negative) Highlights of the month Nasdaq up 5 months in a row (longest streak since May 2013) Dow worst month since Oct 2016 S&P up 5 months in a row Financials worst month since Sept 2016 USD Index second worst month since April 2016 HY Bonds' worst month since Oct 2016 WTI Crude's worst month since Jul 2016 US crude production is up 6 months in a row Small Caps squeezed up to unchanged on the month and every effort was undertaken to keep the S&P green for March...BUT FAILED! Financials were March's biggest loser, Tech the leader again... Given all the vol in equities and crude oil, bonds ended the month practically unch... Policy Error? Treasury yields have been trading in a very wide range for 5 months... The dollar tumbled after The Fed's dovish rate hike... Despite USD weakness, commodites all ended the month in the red - with Gold almost breaking even and crude ugly... And finally for the week (after a big whipsaw last Friday on the pulled healthcare vote)...massive squeeze for Trannies and Small Caps Massive short squeeze all week... this is the 8th day in a row that "Most Shorted" has been squeezed higher...longest since the election Ugly close for stocks with a big MOC Sell order...NOT off the lows... VIX seemed unhappy... Treasury yields leaked lower today as Dudley's dovish words sent risk-off, leaving yields unch for the week... The dollar dropped to a session low in choppy trading after New York Fed’s Dudley said that 2 more rate increases in 2017 seem about right, though there’s no need to hurry given that the economy is far from overheating, but ended the week marginally higher... Despite the dollar's gains, Crude squeezed over 5% higher on the week... Gold unch WTI ended the week back above $50... And gold above $1250 with Silver over $18 holding gains post Fed rate hike...
Spoiler: Weekend Reading: Washington, We Have A Problem Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, In this past weekend’s missive, I discussed the failure of Congress to get the Affordable Care Act (ACA) repealed, much less replaced. The problem, of course, is the failure to repeal the ACA leaves in question the ability to pass other agenda based items such as tax reform, border wall construction, repatriation or immigration reform. As I noted the debt ceiling debate, which is rapidly approaching, is the next major hurdle. To wit: “With the government currently at the ‘debt ceiling limit,’ and the June 1st deadline approaching for ‘extraordinary funding measures,’ Congress will need to address the FY18 budget resolution before it can act on tax reform. This is necessary to provide the ‘reconciliation instructions’ that allow Republicans to pass tax legislation with only 51 votes in the Senate (and therefore no Democratic support). Reaching an agreement on the FY budget resolution will not be easy; in the past, conservatives have demanded a balanced budget within ten years but this would require endorsing spending cuts (in non-binding form) that some centrist Republicans might oppose along with the BAT. Given this backdrop, tax reform will probably not begin to move through the legislative process until after June at the earliest. Of course, while Wall Street believes ‘tax reform’ will be a much easier process than repealing health care, the reality is it could be just as tough as government entitlement programs, funding for Planned Parenthood, and other programs central to the Democrats, and some left-leaning Republicans, come under attack. For the markets, which have ramped up since the election on ‘hopes’ of a quick implementation of reforms under the new Administration, the risk of disappointment is running high.” This assessment has not changed in the past week, and already we are beginning to discussions of border wall construction being postponed, along with infrastructure spending, and tax cuts being whittled down to just 28% for corporations vs. 15-20%. The last point is the most important given that current valuations in the market are currently being supported by the notion that tax cuts will lead to a profits expansion. The issue, however, remains that while profits may expand from paying lower taxes, and could be much less than currently hoped for, top line revenue growth still remains a missing ingredient as shown in the chart below. While anything is certainly possible, there is the simple issue that economic cycles do NOT last forever. With wage growth still stagnant, debt levels rising and inflation coming from all the wrong areas (health care, rent & gasoline), the risk of disappointment in the “hope” trade is very high. Of course, you combine the risk of a “fiscal policy” error with the Fed on a “monetary policy tightening” cycle and you have all the ingredients for a bad outcome. But then again, maybe this time will indeed “be different.” Just some things I am thinking about this weekend as I catch up on my reading. Trump/Fed/Economy Retailing In America: Game Theory In Reverse by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Money Strong Political Noise Can’t Drown Out Russia by James Rickards via Daily Reckoning Trump Faces An Even Bigger Debacle by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning Will Tax Reform Boost Economic Growth by James Picerno via Capital Spectator Building More Apartments Than Renters by Akin Oyedele via BI #MAGA Poll Explodes To Highest Since 70’s by Bob Bryan via BI GOP Failure On AHCA Just The Beginning by Glenn Reynolds via USA Today The Reason Why Significant Tax Reform Hasn’t Happened Since 80’s by Pedro Da Costa via BI Trumps Poll Numbers Low, Can He Boost Them? by Jake Novak via CNBC Tax Reform Not As Simple As It Soundsby Caroline Baum via MarketWatch No, Tax Reform Won’t Be Easier Than AHCA by Howard Gleckman via Forbes GOP Nightmare: $2 Trillion Funding Hole by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge Tax Cuts Can’t Be Financed By Cutting Waste by Mark Thoma via Fiscal Times GOP Will Struggle To Win Tax Reform by William Gale via RCM Trump’s Tax Approach Could Look Like Obama’s by Andrew Ross-Sorkin via NY Times Markets Don’t Mistake A Bubble For Economic Growth by Jesse Colombo via Forbes Raoul Pal: Everyone Is On The Wrong Side Of Bonds by Jonathan Garber via BI Market Impact Of AHCA Failure Unclear by Mohamed El-Erian via Bloomberg Two Fed Presidents Warn Of Valuations by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge As Markets Sag, Might Be Time To Be Bullish by Avi Gilburt via MarketWatch Why Long-Term Stock Returns Look Miserableby Anora Mahmudova via MarketWatch No Indication Bull Market Is Slowing Down by Andrew Slimmon via US News Corporate Profits Have Stalled by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times Yes, The Trump Rally Is Over by Jeff Reeves via The Hill Fear Threatens Market Comeback by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch Post-Election Rally May Be Repealed & Replaced by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets Stock Rally Could Last Until 2018 by Avi Gilburt via BI Dollar Will Lead Stocks Lower by Erik Swarts via Market Anthropology Market Strength Has Little To Do With Trump by Michael Brush via MarketWatch Research / Interesting Reads How Many Jobs Do Robots Destroy by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street Mnuchin Says Not To Worry About Robots by Elena Holodny via BI Optimistic Americans Losing Hope by John Mauldin via Maulding Economics The Holy Grail: Fair Value Of Equity Market by Research Affiliates Robots: The 4th Industrial Revolution by David Kelnar via Medium Pensions Crisis Coming by Stephen McBride via Forbes 10-Retirement Stats Every Boomer Should Know by Maurie Backman via Motley Fool Asset Price Collapse Is Biggest Economic Risk by Martin Feldstein via Project Syndicate White Working Class In Big Trouble by Noah Smith via Bloomberg Hayek Saw It Coming 70-Years Agoby Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge Say’s Other Law by Sandwichman via EconoSpeak $17 Trillion Will Vanish In This Cycle by John Hussman via Hussman Funds Can Small Caps Turn It Around? by Dana Lyons via Tumblr Bogle’s 4% Return Estimate May Be Optimistic by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report “The United States have developed a new weapon that destroys people but it leaves buildings standing. It’s called the stock market.” – Jay Leno
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017- Here are where the major indices stand since the Nov. 8th Presidential Election and Inauguration Day as of market close 3.31.17- S&P sectors for the week-
First Trading Day of April DJIA and S&P 500 Advance 77.3% of the Time According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 (50Th Anniversary Edition), the first trading day of April is DJIA’s second best first trading day of months based upon total points gained. Only May’s first trading day is stronger. Looking back at the last 22 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 77.3% of the time with average gains in excess of 0.5%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have slightly weaker track records and smaller average gains, but are both still up more frequently then down with modest average gains. April is DJIA’s Best Month of the Year–Up 11 Straight April marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. On April 3rd, we will begin looking for our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal and corresponding early signs of seasonal weakness. We will use this signal to begin to take a more defensive posture in the Almanac Investor Stock and ETF Portfolios. April 1999 was the first month to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. Since 2006, April has been up eleven years in a row with an average gain of 2.6% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. April is second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). Typical post-election blues have done little to damper April’s performance since 1953. April is DJIA’s second best month in post-election years, gaining 1.9% on average. April is fourth best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Although post-election year 2005 did suffer a 3% DJIA decline. Historically Slow Grind to Recover Losses from 8-Day or Greater Losing Streak Prior to yesterday’s solid gains, DJIA had declined in eight consecutive trading sessions. The last DJIA losing streak of similar duration was in July 2011. Since 1950, DJIA has suffered 21 daily losing streaks of eight or more trading days. The longest was 12 trading days in January 1968, the worst based upon total decline was in October 2008 when DJIA shed 22.11% in eight trading days. DJIA’s recent streak ended with DJIA down a modest 1.91%. Historically, it took DJIA more than 60 trading days to recover the losses accumulated during the streak. This is can be seen in the top chart of DJIA’s performance 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after the previous 21 streaks. DJIA’s most recent losing streak resulted in the smallest decline of all other streaks. The most similar streak with a mild total decline occurred in 1989 (shaded grey in table below). In 1989, DJIA was quick to recover and was 5.99% higher one month later and 13.27% higher three months later. If Q1 earnings are generally solid and economic data remains firm a repeat of that past performance is not completely outside the realm of possibility. Will We See April Showers This Year? Posted by lplresearch Although equities have seen a bit of a pullback during March, looking at the big picture, things continue to look constructive for potentially longer-term gains. It hasn’t been easy though, as last month the Dow had its longest winning streak (12 days) since 1987, only to follow it up this month with its longest losing streak (eight days) since 2011. Here’s the good news: stocks historically have done very well in April. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Whether it’s because of tax returns being used to buy equities, last-minute retirement fund contributions, or simply happier moods as the days get warmer, April tends to be one of the strongest months historically. In fact, over the past 20 years no other month has had a higher average return for the S&P 500 Index. It has also incredibly been higher 10 of the past 11 years.” Here are some more April insights for the S&P 500: Since 1928, July has been the top-performing month. That might be surprising to most, as we don’t usually think about July as one of the strongest months. But April isn’t anything to ignore, as it is the third-strongest month. Also, it has been higher 62.9% of the time, with only December higher more often. Since 1950*, April has been the third-best month (1.5% gain on average) with November and December up more on average. Recently things have been much better. Over the past 20 years, April has been up 2.0% on average, which is the best month of the year. Over the past 10 years, April has been in the green nine times, with March, May, and December tied for second at seven. The only time April was in the red was in 2012, when it fell only 0.7%. Emerging Markets Check In: Still Looking Good Posted by lplresearch Emerging markets (EM) have finally come to life recently, after lagging the S&P 500 Index for nearly five years. Year to date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 12.7% versus the S&P 500’s 4.6% gain. Going out 12 months, it is 18.9% versus 15%, respectively. As we noted nearly a year ago in Emerging Market Earnings: Is The Tide Turning?, there were some indications that conditions were improving, and that has been the case. Now the question is: Can it continue? One of our favorite indicators for determining how well (or poorly) EM could do is the gold-to-silver ratio. This ratio measures the number of ounces of silver needed to buy a single ounce of gold. Silver is considered to be both a precious metal and an industrial metal, unlike gold. So as industrial metals have done well over the past year, silver has outperformed gold. As a result, the ratio has declined, and commodity-heavy EM countries have outperformed. A year ago the ratio was above 80, which was the highest since late 2008 during the financial crisis. As we noted last April, the previous two times this ratio became that high were great buying opportunities for EM. Third time’s a charm, at least so far. The bottom line is, when silver outperforms gold (and this ratio declines), historically, EM has tended to benefit, as the updated chart shows. What matters here and now is that although the ratio is lower than it was over a year ago, it still has plenty of room to move lower, which suggests outperformance in EM could potentially continue. Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “One of the key questions money managers are asking themselves is whether emerging markets (EM) can continue to outperform. We think they can given valuations are low, while consensus earnings are expected to be nearly twice that of the S&P 500 in 2017; and from a relative point of view, EM has recently started to outperform after years of underperformance. Remember, these trends in price momentum tend to last years, not months, which could bode well for EM strength to continue.” Last, EM performance relative to the S&P 500 has stopped declining. As this relative strength chart shows, after falling for nearly five years relative to the S&P 500, EM has stopped falling and has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. It might sound simple, but the first step to relative outperformance is to stop going lower, and that looks to be the case with EM.
That’s a Wrap: Q1 Performance Mar 31, 2017 Not a bad quarter for the bulls. With Q1 now officially in the books, 2017 has gotten off to a great start with the S&P 500 rallying 5.7% through late Friday afternoon. As shown in the sector performance chart below, Technology did most of the heavy lifting this quarter with a rally of 12.4%, or more than double the S&P 500’s gains. Behind Technology, Consumer Discretionary rallied 8.2%, while Health Care gained 8%. On the downside, the only two sectors that were down on the quarter were Energy (-7.2%) and Telecom Services (-4.8%). Besides these two sectors, others that underperformed during Q1 were Financials, Real Estate, Industrials, and Materials. The tables below list the best and worst performing stocks during the quarter. Of the 21 stocks that gained more than 25%, shares of NRG Energy (NRG) rallied more than 50%, while Vertex Pharma gained 48%. With Technology leading the market higher, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that eight of the top performing stocks in the index were from that sector, led by Activision Blizzard (ATVI) and Micron (MU) which both added more than 30%. How good a year has 2017 been for equities and Tech in general? Even Xerox (XRX) is up over 25%! To the downside, the table below lists the 30 stocks in the S&P 500 that traded down more than 10% this quarter. Leading the way lower, L Brands (LB), Under Armour (UA), and Signet (SIG) all lost more than a quarter of their market value during Q1. Along with those three names, another six stocks from the Consumer Discretionary sector made the list. The only sector with more stocks on the list of losers was Energy. Given that it was the worst performing sector during the quarter, Energy makes sense, but Consumer Discretionary was the second best performing sector. The reason Consumer Discretionary fared so well even with so many stocks in the sector declining sharply is due in large part to Amazon.com (AMZN). With a gain of 18% and a market cap of around $425 billion, AMZN was responsible for one-third of the Consumer Discretionary sector’s gain in Q1.
ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.2.17 - How to Avoid Shake-outs in the Market Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Not a whole heck of a lot going on here as far as ERs go for this upcoming week...starting on April 13th we'll get the next round of ERs again. But here are the few that are scheduled for release this week... Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.3.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 4.3.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.4.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.4.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.5.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.5.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.6.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.6.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.7.17 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.7.17 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and vote where you think the markets will end this upcoming week ahead!- Weekly SPX Poll - Sentiment (4/3-4/7) <-- click there to cast your weekly vote for this upcoming week! In addition we have our weekly stock picking challenge now up and running as well!- Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest for the Week of (4/3-4/7) <-- click there to post your weekly picks for this week! We also now have a daily stock picking & market direction guessing challenge running here!- Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/3) <-- click there to cast your daily vote & stock pick for Monday! ======================================================================================================== And lastly here are our monthly and quarterly stock market polls & stock picking challenges- First the polls- Monthly SPX Poll - April 2017 Sentiment <-- click there to cast your monthly vote for April! Quarterly SPX Poll - Q2 Sentiment (April - June) 2017 <-- click there to cast your quarterly vote for Q2! And here are our stock picking challenge threads- Stockaholics April 2017 Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your monthly picks for April! Stockaholics Q2 2017 Quarterly Stock Picking Contest <-- click there to post your quarterly picks for Q2! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty awesome to see some of you regulars join us and participate on these. I hope you all have a fantastic weekend!
($KMX $WBA $STZ $MON $BBBY $AYI $FRED $SCHN $CONN $MSM $RPM $ISCA $LW $YUMC $EDAP $PSMT $NTIC $SHLM $CAFD)
Also just a quick bump of this post in here in case anyone missed it over the weekend. Hoping everyone gets a chance to see this post and is able to cast votes and post picks before Monday's open!
Good morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday. Hope you all had a nice relaxing weekend in here and are ready for the new trading week, month, and quarter ahead. Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday morning- 4/3 Monday Market Movers & News: MYL, TSLA, F, AAPL, LVS, WYNN, AMZN, GOOGL, SBUX, UAA, LOW <-- click there to view! I hope you all have an awesome new trading day, week, month and quarter ahead in here!
Well not an ideal start for the bulls in the second quarter April usually is bullish so it will be interesting to see how rest of the month plays out Auto stocks taking a hit today after some disappointing auto sales number
^^ Haha yeah not too much longer to wait. I know I had posted this up on last week's thread but April 13th is when things get going again.
Here's kind of an interesting chart I came across today. This is a chart that shows the average daily intraday pattern on the SPX from close on Election Day 2016 (11/8/16) through the last ATH made on March 1st. This chart is kind of like what we saw today (not exactly to a tee but similar) where we hit the LOD in the late morning, then rally up towards EOD. It's pretty much what we see a lot of whenever the mornings start off a bit sluggish. Similar type of price action different day. Just another day at the 'ole stock market.
