Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of April 8th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 10:00 a.m. Factory orders Tuesday Earnings: Shaw Communications, PriceSmart, Levi Strauss, WD-40 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 9:30 a.m. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 1:00 p.m. 3-year auction 5:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles Wednesday Earnings: Delta Air Lines, MSC Industrial, Bed Bath & Beyond 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 11:50 a.m. Fed's Quarles 1:00 p.m. 10-year auction 2:00 p.m. Federal budget 2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes Thursday Earnings: Fastenal, Apogee, Rite Aid 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. PPI 1:00 p.m. 30-year auction 9:30 a.m. Fed's Clarida 9:35 a.m. New York Fed John Williams 9:40 a.m. Kansas City Fed President James Bullard 2:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Twitter Q&A 4:00 p.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Friday Earnings: J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, First Republic Bank, Infosys, PNC 8:30 a.m. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
Bond Yields & Bitcoin Bounce But Trade-Talk Trumped Terrible-Data For Stocks Remember Sunday... when a single Chinese 'soft' data survey beat prompted panic-buying around the world? Well, by the end of the week, Global macro data had extended its decline (but that never stopped stocks)... Because only one thing matters... "a trade deal" China is leading the world with another leg higher, crushing Europe and US... US markets all gained solidly, helped by the Monday gap open after China... Trannies were best on the week... Odd day for The Dow, rallied after the close on Xi comments, ripped on the jobs data, dumped at cash open, dumped after Europe close, then pumped and dumped into the close... Don't forget - its payrolls day - so no matter how crap or how great jobs data is - you buy the dip... This was the biggest short-squeeze week in 2 months... And buyback-related stocks soared... (biggest 2-week jump since the start of 2019) Huge week for semi stocks, surging to a new record high...best week for semis in 5 months Credit and equity protection costs plummeted this week... But VIX and stocks remain decoupled... But the jaws between bonds and stocks remain the widest... Despite some gains today, bonds were ugly this week with yields up 8-10bps across the curve... But 10Y remained below 2.50% (and 30Y below 3.00%)... Inflation Breakevens were up on the week but flatlined the last few days even as Oil exploded... The Dollar ended the week unchanged (despite all the excitement over a trade deal) despite some volatility intraweek... NOTE the resistance at 1200 for Bloomberg Dollar Index. Cable mirrored the dollar as Brexit headlines dominated once again to leave the pound unchanged... Cryptos had their best week of the year with Bloomberg's Galaxy Crypto Index up 21.5%... led by Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin... With Bitcoin holding above $5000... PMs ended the week unch - in line with the dollar - but crude and copper diverged dramatically... In precious metal land, palladium's pukefest continues as platinum has become the new favorite (on the week, gold and silver were unch)... As an aside, Copper/Gold and the UST 10Y yield have recoupled (just like Jeff Gundlach said)... WTI surged today, breaking above $63 to a new cycle high (BRENT topped $70)... And Lean Hogs soared as asian piggy flu struck... Finally, it's different this time... for now... And while 'risk-on' is in full swing, positioning in 'risk-off' assets is not playing along with the theme at all!! And remember, Q1 was hedge funds' worst start to a year since 2012 (presumably since they follow some rational investment thesis that simply does not compute with the new normal equity market)...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
Big First Quarter Gains Undoubtedly Bullish Well the big gains of Q1 are in the books and after the nastiness in Q4 it’s reassuring to see the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle returning to form and delivering solid gains. The Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Cycle runs from Q4 of the Midterm Election Year through Q2 of the Pre-Election Year for with an average gain of 21.1% for the S&P 500 over the 3-quarter span. The S&P 500 gained 13.1% in 2019 Q1, but it lost 14.0% in 2018 Q4 and is still down -2.7% for the Sweet Spot so far. But, nevertheless, this type of gain for the S&P 500 in Q1 is undoubtedly bullish. The S&P 500’s gain for 2019 Q1 is the 26th best quarterly gain for the index since 1930, 7thbest Q1 since 1949, largest Q1 gain since 1998 and the top quarterly gain since September 2009. As illustrated in the accompanying table the 44 prior times that the S&P 500 was positive in Q1 since 1949 resulted in 40 full-year gains and 4 losses for an average gain of 16.2% and gains for the remaining 9 months of the year 38 times out of 44 year with an average gain of 8.6%. The 18 years with Q1 gains between 5.5% and 13.9% are all followed by full-year gains with the only blemish in geopolitically charged 1956. The big black mark came from Black Monday 1987. 1956 was mired by the Hungarian Revolution and the Soviet invasion as well as the Suez Crisis, the Second Arab-Israeli War. 2011 was hindered by the international sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis and the resulting downgrade of U.S. credit rating. The dotcom bubble popped in the year 2000. Tepid growth and earnings declines created a mini bear in 2015 that bottomed in February 2016. And finally, the 1980-1982 double-dip recessions put U.S. stocks in abear market throughout 1981 that ended in August 1982. The U.S. Debt Binge Posted by lplresearch U.S. bond bulls are winning in the global search for yield. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, negative-yielding debt around the world has grown to $10.4 trillion, its highest point since September 2016. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 31 basis points (0.31%) in March as prices jumped, and the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index notched its best monthly performance in four years. Recent strength in fixed income has been interesting, especially amid the S&P 500 Index’s best first quarter in over 20 years. Typically, equities and bond prices move opposite of one another. However, that relationship has broken down this year as global rates have felt the sting of a worldwide growth slowdown. Yields on sovereign debt for developed nations have dropped 20 to 30 basis points (0.20-0.30%) year to date, and investors in Germany’s debt are contending with negative bund yields for the first time since 2016. “U.S. debt is attractive for global investors looking for both yield and safety,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We expect slightly higher inflation and continued steady U.S. economic growth, but strong global demand has capped yield appreciation.” While the U.S. debt binge has lifted bond bulls’ portfolios, it has indirectly fueled investors’ worries about impending economic weakness and slowing inflation. Insatiable global demand for U.S. Treasuries has weighed on long-term rates, skewing economic signals from the bond market. At the end of last month, the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields turned negative for the first time since 2007, sparking concerns that bonds could be hinting towards an impending recession. Most economic indicators we follow contradict this message, and we see low odds of a recession in the next year. Overall, we believe that foreign demand has led to an overreaction in U.S. bond markets, to the benefit of some investors and the detriment of others. While we think global demand for U.S. debt will be higher this year, we expect recent buying pressure to ease if trade risk subsides and global data improve. Jobs Growth Slows, But Only A Little Bit Today's job numbers beat expectations, with 196,000 jobs added and a small positive revision to the prior two months. On a rolling 3 month average, job creation fell to the lowest level in over a year, but only marginally. While jobs growth is still solid, it has cooled a bit. That isn't anything to worry about, but it is something to keep an eye on. Wage growth picked up dramatically last year, with 2016-2018's sideways movement in the year-over-year change of average wages paid surging. Over the last few months that growth has once again been moving sideways, albeit at a much higher rate of growth than we've seen for almost all of the current economic expansion. The Bespoke Report -- Second Quarter Chart Checkup Following big market moves like we have seen in the last six months, a number of market characteristics tend to change as some new leadership groups emerge and others fall by the wayside. In order to help get a better idea of what sectors and groups have been driving the market, in this week’s Bespoke Report, we are providing a ‘chart checkup’ of all the S&P 500 Industries as well as providing updates to some key market and economic charts that we feel are important to highlight. It was a banner week for US equities and a great encore to a strong first quarter. With the exception of the Dow (DIA), every major index ETF was up over 2%. Value outperformed growth across all three market caps, but the margin between the two was pretty narrow. Defensive sectors like Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) actually saw modest declines this week, while Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all rallied over 3%. In international markets, China (ASHR) surged over 7%, while Mexico (EWW) bounced over 5%. Australia (EWA) was the only country up less than 1%. Fixed income ETFs saw modest declines across the board.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 4.5.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (4/8) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (4/8-4/12) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (4/8-4/12) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for April 5th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4.7.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 4.8.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 4.8.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Tuesday 4.9.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 4.9.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.10.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 4.10.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.11.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 4.11.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 4.12.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 4.12.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($DAL $JPM $RAD $WFC $BBBY $FAST $NC $MSM $SJR $INFY $FRC $WDFC $APOG $LNN $PSMT $SOL $SLP $CAAP $LEGH $SEAC $TRNX) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning April 8th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
Good Monday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
Morning Lineup - Grounded It's a pretty quiet start to the trading week with just modest moves overnight and this morning in foreign markets, and little in the way of movement in treasuries. Dow futures are being weighed down by Boeing (BA), which cut production guidance on Friday after the close and received a downgrade over at Merrill Lynch this morning. General Electric (GE) is also trading down 5% after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to underweight. In this weekend's Bespoke Report, we provided a detailed chart check-up and included snapshots of the setups for each of the S&P 500's industries. To summarize how things looked on a group by group basis, the chart below summarizes the relative strength of each S&P industry's performance versus the S&P 500 over the last year. Groups with green performance bars have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the last year, groups in blue are either modestly outperforming or underperforming the S&P 500, while groups in red have significantly underperformed in the last year. Leading the way higher, Life Sciences, Communications Equipment, and Road & Rail have been the top three performing groups, while Energy Equipment, Tobacco, and Household Durables have been the biggest laggards.
whelp, the spx is now on an 8 in a row winning streak. i gotta do some digging up on the stats, but i gotta believe we're closing in on some history here meanwhile, this month of april has now tied the 2007 april for the longest winning streak to start the month at 6 in a row. 10 in a row was the all time record long from 1971, would be something else if we either tie or top that record
alrightly, here we go... so the spx current 8 day winning streak is the longest since oct. 2017. the next longest win streak would be from 2004 (9 in a row). the all time record however is up at 14 in row from 1971, will it happen? we shall see
China wants to eliminate Bitcoin mining China's state planner has labeled Bitcoin mining as an "undesirable" industry in a draft proposal, recommending local governments eliminate the sector in the country. The public will have it until May 7 to share feedback on proposed amendments, after which the final version will be published and become effective. Last week, the price of Bitcoin soared nearly 20% in its best day since the height of the 2017 bubble, breaking $5,000 for the first time since mid-November. Today, Bitcoin is trading at $5,214.
