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Stock Market Today: August 12th - 16th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 9, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 12th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Barrick Gold, Sysco, Tencent Music, Bloom Energy

    2 p.m. Federal budget

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Advance Auto Parts, Adaptive Biotech, Change Healthcare, RealReal, Tilray, Elanco Animal Health, Best Inc, JD.com

    6 a.m. NFIB survey
    8:30 a.m. CPI

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Cisco, Macy’s, Embraer, Canopy Growth, Tencent, Agilent, Luckin Coffee, Performance Food, NetApp

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Walmart, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Alibaba, Tapestry, J.C. Penney, Canadian Solar, ZTO Express

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims
    8:30 a.m. Retail sales
    8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs
    8:30 a .m. Empire state manufacturing
    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Survey
    9:15 a.m. Industrial production
    10 a.m. Business inventories
    10 a.m. NAHB survey
    4 p.m. TIC data Friday

    • Friday

    Earnings: Deere

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts
    8:30 a.m. Business Leaders’ survey
    10 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
    OldFart and T0rm3nted like this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    US Stocks Shrug Off China Tensions But Bonds & Gold Soar Most In Years
    An ugly start to the week for stocks ended "meh" but bonds and bullion (and bitcoin) safe-havens were better bid...

    [​IMG]

    Stocks message to the world "don't panic!", Bonds and Gold's message "don't panic, but protect!"





    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    European banks were battered to their lowest since June 2016's Brexit vote...

    [​IMG]



    Despite a lot of volatility, US equity markets scrambled back to small losses only on the week (S&P and Nasdaq best on the week, Trannies and Small Caps worst), but traders puked into the close on Friday...

    [​IMG]



    Today was another ridiculous one, especially the panic bid in the last hour (absent headlines) to get The Dow into the green (Dow was the only index to make it green on the day), but an ugly close spoiled all the fun...

    [​IMG]



    Dow futures have recovered Fib 61.8% of the post-Powell plunge...

    [​IMG]



    Buybacks dominated the surge...

    [​IMG]



    Defensives outperformed Cyclicals on the week...

    [​IMG]



    FANG stocks ended the week lower - but the machines ran all the stops first...

    [​IMG]



    VIX ended higher on the day, but unchanged on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Bonds and stocks decoupled once again...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields tumbled for the second week in a row...

    [​IMG]



    This is the biggest 2-week drop in 10Y Yields since Aug 2011...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - the close to close vol was barely noticeable but intraday was huge (daily closes: 1.70, 1.70, 1.73, 1.72, 1.74)



    Italian yields exploded higher on the week as political crises re-emerge...

    [​IMG]



    The dollar ended the week lower, but traded in a narrow range...

    [​IMG]



    Cable collapsed to a fresh cycle low (Surprise contraction in GDP)...

    [​IMG]



    Offshore Yuan continued to plunge - its worst week since June 2018...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos were very mixed on the week with Bitcoin strong and altcoins weak...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin just could not hold above $12,000...

    [​IMG]



    Thanks to a decent bounce today, oil wasn't as ugly as it could be on the week but PMs were best...

    [​IMG]



    Gold soared over 4% on the week, above $1500 - its best week since April 2016...

    [​IMG]



    Silver topped gold on the week, but was unable to hold $17...

    [​IMG]



    WTI ramped back aboive $54 (after tagging a $50 handle mid-week...

    [​IMG]



    Credit markets suggest this bounce in oil prices won't last...

    [​IMG]



    Global negative-yielding debt soared $700 billion this week (up over $3 trillion in the last month)

    [​IMG]



    Finally, Rabobank's recession indicator is at its highest in over 30 years...

    [​IMG]

    Which explains why the market is demanding at least 4 rate-cuts by The Fed, to save the world...

    [​IMG]

    Still, despite this week's 'resilience' in stocks, they remain laggards since Powell started speaking and bonds and bullion the best...

    [​IMG]

    And gold is now the leader year-to-date, marginally outpacing stocks...

    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Perfect "Shrug" Pattern Emerges for the S&P 500
    Fri, Aug 9, 2019

    The S&P 500 ripped higher by nearly 2% yesterday on no significant news, and when combined with gains seen over the prior two days, the index gained back all of its losses from Monday’s 3% drop.

    The technicals show a near perfect double bottom formed from the intraday lows on Monday and Wednesday. The 2,830 level proved to be very strong support that saw buyers step in just when things looked their bleakest this week.

    [​IMG]

    To throw some levity into the mix, the intraday chart of the S&P 500 over the last week has amazingly formed a perfect “shrug” pattern from the famous emoji that you’ve likely seen before in texts or on social media (especially if you have teenage kids)! A picture is certainly worth 1,000 words. Talk about the perfect description of this market!

    [​IMG]

    Another Summer Storm

    U.S. stocks have hit another trade-induced summer storm.

    The S&P 500 Index fell 3% on Monday, its worst day since December 2018. The index is now about 6% from record highs in U.S. stocks’ worst bout of volatility since May.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Storms Happen Often in U.S. Stocks, stock volatility this year has been relatively subdued compared to history. The S&P 500 has declined an average of 14% from peak to trough since 1990, and even in positive years, the index has dropped an average of 11% during the year.

    [​IMG]

    “Though the volatility has been uncomfortable, it’s normal for U.S. stocks to endure periodic pullbacks,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “These experiences typically provide opportunities for suitable investors to rebalance, diversify portfolios toward targeted allocations, or to add to equity positions based on what we see as a generally favorable macroeconomic environment.”

    Stocks’ recent sell-off has been especially brisk. Just 10 days ago on July 26, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, bolstered by Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut hopes, improving economic data, and cooling trade tensions. Since then, the Fed’s rate cut and messaging wasn’t met with investor enthusiasm, the United States threatened tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods, and China pulled prior commitments to purchase U.S. agriculture goods. In addition, China’s central bank let its currency (the yuan) fall below the key 7 per dollar level that some view as a line in the sand relative to currency manipulation.

    The fundamental picture for stocks hasn’t really changed, though. Economic growth has exceeded expectations, inflation and interest rates are low, and second quarter earnings have been better than expected. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on global markets, but tariffs haven’t significantly affected the domestic economy and the Fed has indicated willingness to loosen policy as needed. While there are still geopolitical risks, including trade, a review of all of the above fundamentals suggests to us that the odds of an imminent recession are quite low.

    We’ll continue to watch the trade and front monetary policy, along with their impacts to the U.S. dollar, economic output and corporate profit growth. For now, though, we see few reasons that suggest this market pullback will result in anything more than a typical correction, and we maintain our belief that the S&P 500 is fairly valued in the range of 3,000 by year-end.

    Sticking to the Game Plan
    [​IMG]
    Okay, so the market has been volatile the past two weeks reacting to the Fed rate cut and more so the U.S.-China trade dispute. But in reality this is precisely the typical summer, especially early-August, seasonal weakness we have been warning about, so we are not panicking, but that does not mean the market is out of the woods yet. There is still some technical work to be done.

    At the risk of being repetitive, we remind you that the market continues to track the seasonal patterns closely, which suggests to us that it is likely to continue to do so. The chart below of the Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns clearly illustrates that despite somewhat greater amplitude DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have been following the seasonal trend this year. The late-July/early-August drop we just experienced came right on cue, which puts us on an upward trajectory through mid-September before another reversal into late-October.
    [​IMG]
    But things will need to continue to get constructive technically soon or else further declines become a higher probability. In the next chart we have updated the technical support and resistance levels for the S&P 500.

    The Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) broke through initial support at S&P 2875 near the old January 2018 highs, but we held the next level of support at 2815 where the S&P failed intraday back on November 7, 2018, before the December selloff, which was rather constructive. Today’s rally was further improvement, but we have yet to reclaim the level before this past DF/DM. The sooner we clear this new overhead resistance around 2955 near the May 1 intraday high and the close of Thursday August 1 just prior to this latest DF/DM, the better the technical picture will be.

    If we cannot take out 2955 soon and then breach the next level of support the situation begins to look like the beginning of the selloff last October. Support at 2775 runs through several gaps and consolidations, but the next level of support around 2725 where we held in early June is important. 2650 is minor support below there, but critical support sits at the old February/April 2018 lows 2580.

    If we can retake 2955 in short order then we would expect the market to drift higher into mid-September, perhaps logging minor new highs.
    [​IMG]

    August Summer Market Storms Are Common
    [​IMG]
    Mild summer market storms like we are experiencing so far this August have been a common occurrence over the years. After the banner rally we have been having this type of selloff should not be surprising. However, from our analysis of Down Augusts, it can get dicey for the rest of the year if August losses deepen and if September is down as well. You can see in the tables below that the market has usually weathered these typical mild August market declines in stride. It’s mostly the larger losses at the top of the list accompanied by losses in September that have nasty market years. Years like 2019 with big gains year-to-date at the end of July that had August market storms fared better.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.9.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for August 9th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.11.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
     
    OldFart likes this.
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.12.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.12.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.13.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.13.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.14.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.14.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.15.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.15.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.16.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.16.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($NVDA $BABA $WMT $CSCO $JD $CGC $GOLD $SYY $AMAT $TLRY $M $GOOS $JCP $AAP $EOLS $TSG $STNE $AZRE $LK $TME $ERJ $CSIQ $YY $HUYA $NINE $DE $TDW $CRNT $HYGS $QD $TPR $BRC $BEST $PAGS $VFF $NTAP $RMBL $CACI $BE $CWCO $NEPT $A)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
    #11 bigbear0083, Aug 9, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2019
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Good morning everyone, and good luck this week!
     
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  14. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    Ok. Back in the game. I entered at 2890, equity position long
     
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  15. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    Last December on that deep collapse on the SPX, I exited too early. I net profited but not as much as I could have. Still learning how to maximize on my profits. No net loss for me consistently. The problem is deeper profits. Working on that.
     
  16. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    Anything from 2820 to 2900 is a buying opportunity. If it collapses more, I shall average in.
     
  17. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    I haven't been here for a while. I don't know if this thread or website is active or a graveyard
     
  18. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    The Trump volatility is nice for trading in the markets
     
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  19. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    A key for bulls will be the rally above the 2940 to 2950 level for this week
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    welcome back!

    no it's still very much active here, you were just posting on another thread :p

    i've moved all of your posts to the correct thread ;)

    good to see you back!
     

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