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Stock Market Today: August 17th - 21st, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 14, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 17th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: JD.com

    8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    12:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot, Kohl’s, Advance Auto Parts, BHP

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Target, NVIDIA, L Brands, Lowes, TJX

    10:00 a.m. QSS

    2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Alibaba, Estee Lauder, BJ’s, Ross Stores

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed

    1:00 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

    • Friday

    Earnings: John Deere, Foot Locker

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Gold Slips Most Since March As Stocks See Best 100-Day Run... Ever
    Safe-havens were dumped and value stocks outperformed this week as equity markets saw notable rotations and real-yields spiked after generally positive economic data and the Russia vaccine headlines...

    Gold was down 4.5% this week, breaking a nine-week winning streak and its worst week since the liquidation flush of mid-March (but did stage a decent comeback later in the week)...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And bonds were puked with Treasury yields spiked this week by the most since early June with 30Y Yields up 19bps this week (2Y up only 2bps)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But putting the move in context...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Small Caps and The Dow are the best performers since last Thursday's close (when the value/growth rotation began) and Nasdaq is lower... (note this is not the weekly change)...

    [​IMG]

    But the S&P 500 was unable to close above its previous record closing high despite testing it three times...

    [​IMG]

    This completes the best 100-day rally for the S&P 500... ever...

    [​IMG]

    Source: LPLResearch

    Value stocks have significantly outperformed growth...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Momo has had a tough week (worst 2-week drop since June)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Real yields spiked this week (inverse in the chart) and while Gold initially tracked them, the relationship has decoupled in the last two days..

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar ended the week lower - the sixth drop in the last seven weeks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Ethereum had a big week - its 4th winning week in a row - pushing to its highest since Aug 2018...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Copper and Crude rallied on the week while PMs were weak...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And supply chain malarkey sent Lumber futures soaring to a new record high...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oh, and finally, Nancy Pelosi let slip some 'truth' this morning (in an effort to denigrate Trump of course), telling MSNBC that "the stock market is only doing well because The Fed bolsters it." She is right, of course, but the question is...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...will she demand The Fed stop printing money when The Dems sweep in November?
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    4 Charts That Will Amaze You

    The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.

    From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:

    [​IMG]

    They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.

    [​IMG]

    After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.

    [​IMG]

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.

    [​IMG]

    “It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

    When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch
    Fri, Aug 14, 2020

    US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.

    [​IMG]

    Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.

    [​IMG]

    The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.

    [​IMG]

    Retail Sales Rock to New Highs
    Fri, Aug 14, 2020

    At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.

    Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!

    [​IMG]

    While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

    The Strangest Top 25 List In Some Time
    Thu, Aug 13, 2020

    Look closely at the list of the top 25 performing S&P 500 stocks since last Thursday's close and tell us what's wrong with it? Do you see it? Keep looking, you'll figure it out. Yup. That's it! Not a single one of the 25 best performing stocks over the last week is from the Technology sector. In looking through the list of names, it's littered with stocks that were left for dead at varying points in the last several months. FedEx (FDX) is up nearly 18%. Casinos and cruise ships have been collecting dust and rust for the last five months, but the stocks of MGM and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are the second and third best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last week.

    Not only are there no stocks from the Technology sector in the top 25, but there aren't even any in the top 50. To find a Tech sector stock on the list, you have to go all the way down to spot number 70 where Xerox (XRX) sits with its gain of 6.73%. Yeah. We were surprised too. Not only is XRX still a public company, but it's considered a tech stock.

    [​IMG]

    If you want to find a lot of stocks from the Technology sector, they are on the list of the 25 worst performers since last Thursday. Of the 25 names listed below, 12 are from the Technology sector. Not only that, but even many of the non-tech stocks listed like Illumina (ILMN), Netflix (NFLX), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Marketaxess (MKTX), Electronic Arts (EA), and Hologic (HOLX) have very high tech characteristics behind their businesses.

    [​IMG]

    100 Days of Gains
    Wed, Aug 12, 2020

    Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.

    [​IMG]

    While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!

    [​IMG]

    B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight
    Tue, Aug 11, 2020

    Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.

    While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.

    [​IMG]

    Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

    Rocket Reversals
    Mon, Aug 10, 2020

    Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.

    Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.

    While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.

    In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.

    While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.14.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.14.20-
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for August 14th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($WMT $NVDA $BABA $JD $HD $LOW $TGT $SE $NIU $BJ $AAP $DLPN $TJX $ADI $DE $FL $KSS $DQ $PDD $GDS $ECC $BEST $CTK $EL $VIPS $SNPS $A $ROST $QIWI $LB $LX $AMCR $CMCM $LZB $OPRA $KEYS $CREE $GAN $BZUN $JKHY $FN $MLCO $KC $FUV $SQM)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  10. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Textron is jumping in premarket trading.
    Screenshot_2020-08-17-01-25-07_kindlephoto-181279399.png
     
  11. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  12. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Apparently Elon bought into CVAC and robbinhood people are buying it up this am.

    I don’t know anything about the company. Never even received a listing notification.
     
  13. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Wow OSTK up huge today :eek:
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Did they declare bankruptcy?

    I'm (half) kidding.
    I was going to buy it a couple months ago when it was going up to $40 after I saw it in a scan. Backed away and it is about $120 now.
    I should just take small positions in these momo plays, at least...

    edit: Just took a look at latest ER. They doubled revenues in just 90 days, and their blockchain business is improving (looks like they are running an exchange?) -- tZERO tripled in size in one year.
     
    #15 anotherdevilsadvocate, Aug 17, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2020
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  16. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    TSLA_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_08_17_2020.png Tesla....what is this stock?? lol.
     
    #16 Ken34, Aug 17, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2020
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  17. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  18. A55

    A55 Active Member

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  19. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    I’ve bought a bunch of stuff from the depot the last few months. Lots of little projects. Holding off on that shed though. It’s $40% off and free install right. Now.
     
  20. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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