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Stock Market Today: August 31st - September 4th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 28, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 31st!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Zoom

    9:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    • Tuesday

    Vehicle sales

    Earnings: H&R Block

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Cloudera, Macy’s, Brown Forman, Rocket, PVH

    8:15 a.m. ADP

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    10:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Broadcom, Campbell’s Soup, Signet Jewelers, Docusign

    7:30 a.m. Challenger layoffs

    8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Trade balance

    9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    12:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls report
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Powell Pumps S&P To Best August Since '86, Dollar & Bonds Puked
    August 2020's 6.89% surge in the major US market index is the largest August gain since 1986 (when the S&P 500 rose 7.12%), but as the chart below shows Trannies almost doubled those gains...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This is the S&P's 7th straight daily gain, 5th straight weekly gain, and 5th straight monthly gain...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    All thanks to an epic squeeze in the most-shorted stocks (doubling the S&P's performance)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The 5th month in a row...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    With the strength being concentrated in fewer and fewer stocks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As AAPL nears the same size as the entire Russell 2000!!!!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX was lower on the day after 'unusually' trading higher along with a higher stock market two days in a row...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    It was an ugly month for bonds with the long-end up over 30bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Yields spiked 20bps on the month - the biggest absolute monthly spike since Sept 2018 - back above 70bps (30Y back above 1.50%)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But still some context for this rate move is needed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Breakevens ripped higher this month (and up 6 days in a row) to their highest since Jan 2020...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Real yields ended marginally lower (down from -1.00% to -1.04% on the month)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar was pummeled for the 5th straight month to its lowest since May 2018...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos were mixed with Ethereum strong (DeFi boom), Bitcoin Cash weak, and Bitcoin flat...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Copper and Crude had a strong month, gold ended lower, silver the big winner...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold rallied back to yesterday's Powell-spooked highs today...

    [​IMG]

    But Gold ended the month unchanged...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But despite a big roundtrip early on, Silver rallied notably on the month...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which meant the Gold/Silver ratio cratered (for the 4th month in the last 5)...ending the month at the lowest level (silver strongest relative to gold) since April 2017...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And finally there's this!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And this...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And this...

    • *BULLARD: WANT TO GUARD AGAINST ASSET BUBBLES GOING FORWARD
    Because it's different this time...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Probably nothing!
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    S&P 500 Stocks: Worlds Apart
    Thu, Aug 27, 2020

    If you've been paying attention this year, you know that the S&P 500 has been carried by the performance of the index's largest components, and the chart below illustrates just how wide the disparity has been. It shows the YTD performance of each of the S&P 500's members sorted by their market cap heading into 2020 with the largest stocks on the left side and the smallest stocks on the right. So far this year, the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average of 11.3% YTD, and if we were to take an even narrower look at just the ten largest stocks heading into the year, the average YTD gain is over 27%!

    While the largest stocks are up a lot this year, the next 400 stocks in terms of market cap haven't fared nearly as well, averaging a decline of 2.0%. That's not great, but considering the pandemic this year, even a 2% decline isn't such a bad thing. The same can't be said for the smallest stocks in the S&P, however. As shown below, the 50 smallest stocks are down an average of 15.3% YTD, and more than two-thirds of them are down!

    [​IMG]

    Another way to illustrate the declining fortunes of stocks this year based on their size is by looking at a moving average of YTD stock performance across the market cap spectrum, In the chart below, the first point on the chart represents the performance of the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 which have gained an average of 11.3% YTD. The next point to the right represents the average YTD change of the stocks that ranked between number 2 and 51 in terms of market cap at the start of 2020, and we continue that process down the entire list of components to the point where the last point in the series on the right side of the chart represents the average performance of the 50 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 heading into the year. As mentioned above, that group of stocks has averaged a decline of 15.3% YTD. The performance of the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 ranks as the fourth-best of 451 different points on the chart, while the basket of the 50 smallest stocks ranks as the 29th worst performing basket. In 2020, the bigger the stock, the better the returns.

    [​IMG]

    Which Bull Will It Be?

    The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis.

    [​IMG]

    We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II.

    [​IMG]

    “Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.”

    Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets.

    [​IMG]

    September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years
    [​IMG]
    Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup.
    [​IMG]
    Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.28.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.28.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for August 28th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.30.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.31.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.31.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.1.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.1.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.2.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.2.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.3.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.3.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 9.4.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 9.4.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($ZM $DOCU $CRWD $M $CTLT $HOME $CPB $AVGO $SWBI $CLDR $HRB $MOMO $GSX $ZUO $MDB $MIK $SCSC $VRA $SPWH $WSG $PD $BBW $FIVE $GES $EGAN $CIEN $DLTH $SAIC $SMAR $AMBA $SIG $JFIN $TTC $DBI $SCVL $PVH $RGS $DCI $YEXT $IMAB $DOMO $CPRT)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    GME getting a lot of action this morning.
    Looks like a new investor took 9% stake, as well some hype about Oculus VR headsets being sold at Gamestops with a show scheduled for Sep 16.
     
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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Nice move :eek: I wonder they have done better during the pandemic since more people staying home to play video games :p
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Got into UTZ last Friday before the ticker change this morning, paying off so far :banana:
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    VIX up nearly 13% right now.
     
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  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    ZM soaring after earnings :eek: I think I sold half of my holdings about 10 to 12 days ago at $290.87 after getting in at $137.21, would be great if I didn't sell half :mad2:
     
  16. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    TSLA still being TSLA lol. maaan i wish i got in Zoom! wow!
     
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  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    ZM's after hours high was 410 yesterday, and I thought that was the top. Seeing it at 475 now. Can't let something being "overbought" stop you in this market lol. Congrats on holding part of it @stock1234
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Thanks :D Wow up 40% :eek: Too bad I didn’t have a bigger position and I thought I could be late to the party when I bought at $137.21 :p
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Wow what a day for the recent IPO NNOX, I was still losing money on my small position yesterday but now up 25% :eek:
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    CWH up almost 10% for the day, this thing has been so volatile lately :eek:
     
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