Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 31st! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Zoom 9:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI 10:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Tuesday Vehicle sales Earnings: H&R Block 9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Wednesday Earnings: Cloudera, Macy’s, Brown Forman, Rocket, PVH 8:15 a.m. ADP 10:00 a.m. Factory orders 10:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams 12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester 2:00 p.m. Beige book Thursday Earnings: Broadcom, Campbell’s Soup, Signet Jewelers, Docusign 7:30 a.m. Challenger layoffs 8:30 a.m. Productivity and costs 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Trade balance 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 12:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls report
Powell Pumps S&P To Best August Since '86, Dollar & Bonds Puked August 2020's 6.89% surge in the major US market index is the largest August gain since 1986 (when the S&P 500 rose 7.12%), but as the chart below shows Trannies almost doubled those gains... Source: Bloomberg This is the S&P's 7th straight daily gain, 5th straight weekly gain, and 5th straight monthly gain... Source: Bloomberg All thanks to an epic squeeze in the most-shorted stocks (doubling the S&P's performance)... Source: Bloomberg The 5th month in a row... Source: Bloomberg With the strength being concentrated in fewer and fewer stocks... Source: Bloomberg As AAPL nears the same size as the entire Russell 2000!!!! Source: Bloomberg VIX was lower on the day after 'unusually' trading higher along with a higher stock market two days in a row... Source: Bloomberg It was an ugly month for bonds with the long-end up over 30bps... Source: Bloomberg 10Y Yields spiked 20bps on the month - the biggest absolute monthly spike since Sept 2018 - back above 70bps (30Y back above 1.50%)... Source: Bloomberg But still some context for this rate move is needed... Source: Bloomberg Breakevens ripped higher this month (and up 6 days in a row) to their highest since Jan 2020... Source: Bloomberg Real yields ended marginally lower (down from -1.00% to -1.04% on the month)... Source: Bloomberg The dollar was pummeled for the 5th straight month to its lowest since May 2018... Source: Bloomberg Cryptos were mixed with Ethereum strong (DeFi boom), Bitcoin Cash weak, and Bitcoin flat... Source: Bloomberg Copper and Crude had a strong month, gold ended lower, silver the big winner... Source: Bloomberg Gold rallied back to yesterday's Powell-spooked highs today... But Gold ended the month unchanged... Source: Bloomberg But despite a big roundtrip early on, Silver rallied notably on the month... Source: Bloomberg Which meant the Gold/Silver ratio cratered (for the 4th month in the last 5)...ending the month at the lowest level (silver strongest relative to gold) since April 2017... Source: Bloomberg And finally there's this! Source: Bloomberg And this... Source: Bloomberg And this... *BULLARD: WANT TO GUARD AGAINST ASSET BUBBLES GOING FORWARD Because it's different this time... Source: Bloomberg Probably nothing!
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020- S&P sectors for the past week-
S&P 500 Stocks: Worlds Apart Thu, Aug 27, 2020 If you've been paying attention this year, you know that the S&P 500 has been carried by the performance of the index's largest components, and the chart below illustrates just how wide the disparity has been. It shows the YTD performance of each of the S&P 500's members sorted by their market cap heading into 2020 with the largest stocks on the left side and the smallest stocks on the right. So far this year, the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average of 11.3% YTD, and if we were to take an even narrower look at just the ten largest stocks heading into the year, the average YTD gain is over 27%! While the largest stocks are up a lot this year, the next 400 stocks in terms of market cap haven't fared nearly as well, averaging a decline of 2.0%. That's not great, but considering the pandemic this year, even a 2% decline isn't such a bad thing. The same can't be said for the smallest stocks in the S&P, however. As shown below, the 50 smallest stocks are down an average of 15.3% YTD, and more than two-thirds of them are down! Another way to illustrate the declining fortunes of stocks this year based on their size is by looking at a moving average of YTD stock performance across the market cap spectrum, In the chart below, the first point on the chart represents the performance of the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 which have gained an average of 11.3% YTD. The next point to the right represents the average YTD change of the stocks that ranked between number 2 and 51 in terms of market cap at the start of 2020, and we continue that process down the entire list of components to the point where the last point in the series on the right side of the chart represents the average performance of the 50 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 heading into the year. As mentioned above, that group of stocks has averaged a decline of 15.3% YTD. The performance of the 50 largest stocks in the S&P 500 ranks as the fourth-best of 451 different points on the chart, while the basket of the 50 smallest stocks ranks as the 29th worst performing basket. In 2020, the bigger the stock, the better the returns. Which Bull Will It Be? The incredible rally off the March 23 bear market bottom continues, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 50% from those fateful lows. It feels like a lifetime since the longest bull market ever ended. Remember though, although the recent bull market was the longest, it wasn’t the greatest, as the 1990s bull gained more on a percentage basis. We discussed in detail what the new highs in the S&P 500 meant here, so we won’t dive into that again. But this time we’ll show just how this rally ranks versus others that ended major bear markets. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this new bull market, up to this point of about five months, is stronger than any other major bull market’s start going back to World War II. “Yes, this new bull market is the strongest bull market we’ve ever seen after five months,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But that shouldn’t be a source of worry. The previous two strongest rallies up to this point were in 1982 and 2009, and both saw continued strength during the first year of the new bull market.” Here is a chart showing just this bull market and the ’82 and ’09 bull markets. September Almanac: Only Modest Improvement in Election Years Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup. Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance over the same time frame. September’s performance does improve slightly in election years, but it is still negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have been able to escape negative territory and post modest 0.2% and 0.8% average gains respectively in the last ten election year Septembers.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.28.20- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 8.28.20-
Stock Market Analysis Video for August 28th, 2020 Video from AlphaTrends ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.30.20 Video from ShadowTrader (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 8.31.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 8.31.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.1.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.1.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.2.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.2.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 9.3.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 9.3.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 9.4.20 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Friday 9.4.20 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($ZM $DOCU $CRWD $M $CTLT $HOME $CPB $AVGO $SWBI $CLDR $HRB $MOMO $GSX $ZUO $MDB $MIK $SCSC $VRA $SPWH $WSG $PD $BBW $FIVE $GES $EGAN $CIEN $DLTH $SAIC $SMAR $AMBA $SIG $JFIN $TTC $DBI $SCVL $PVH $RGS $DCI $YEXT $IMAB $DOMO $CPRT) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning August 31st, 2020 <-- click there to view!
GME getting a lot of action this morning. Looks like a new investor took 9% stake, as well some hype about Oculus VR headsets being sold at Gamestops with a show scheduled for Sep 16.
Nice move I wonder they have done better during the pandemic since more people staying home to play video games
ZM soaring after earnings I think I sold half of my holdings about 10 to 12 days ago at $290.87 after getting in at $137.21, would be great if I didn't sell half
ZM's after hours high was 410 yesterday, and I thought that was the top. Seeing it at 475 now. Can't let something being "overbought" stop you in this market lol. Congrats on holding part of it @stock1234
Thanks Wow up 40% Too bad I didn’t have a bigger position and I thought I could be late to the party when I bought at $137.21
Wow what a day for the recent IPO NNOX, I was still losing money on my small position yesterday but now up 25%
