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Stock Market Today: August 3rd - 7th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 1, 2020.

?

How do you see the SPX closing for the week of (8/3-8/7)?

Poll closed Aug 3, 2020.
  1. Up.

    42.9%
  2. Flat. (+/-0.50% or less)

    14.3%
  3. Down.

    42.9%
  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 3rd!


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Vehicle sales

    Earnings: AIG, Clorox, Cirrus Logic, KLA, Rambus, Virgin Galactica, Take-Two Interactive, Mosaic, Vornado, Eastman Chemical, Leggett and Platt, Hyatt Hotels, McKesson, Tyson Foods, Tenet Healthcare, Ingersoll-Rand, Marathon Petroleum, HSBC

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    12:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

    1:00 p.m. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin

    2:00 p.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

    2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Walt Disney Co, Sony, Bayer, BP, Diageo, KKR, AMC Networks, Exelon, Incyte, Cyberark Software, Allegheny Tech, Vulcan Materials, Activision Blizzard, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Boingo Wireless, Devon Energy, Ethan Allen, Western Union, Planet Fitness, Monster Beverage, Allstate, Pioneer Natural Resources, Owens-Illinois, Gartner

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Wayfair, New York Times, Sempra Energy, Square, Zynga, Fitbit, AmerisourceBergen, Capri Holdings, BorgWarner, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Humana, Allianz, Cedar Fair, Tanger Factory Outlet, Marathon Oil, Etsy, Olin, Iamgold, Noble Corp, Wendy’s, CF Industries, CenturyLink, Varian Medical, Copa Holdings, American Water Works

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    8:30 a.m. International trade

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM non-manufacturing

    5:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Bristol-Myers Squibb, News Corp, ViacomCBS, Cardinal Health, Mylan,Mylan, Booking Holdings, Uber Technologies, First Solar, Zillow, Cushman and Wakefield, Datadog, Dropbox, Murphy Oil, Hilton Worldwide, Papa John’s, Zoetis, Sealed Air, Ball Corp, AXA, ING, Adidas, Siemens, Nintendo, Toyota

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    10:00 a.m. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

    • Friday

    Earnings: Noble Energy, Virtu Financial, Berkshire Hathaway

    8:30 a.m. Employment

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    3:00 p.m.m Consumer credit
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Mission Accomplished: Fed Officially Blows The Biggest Ever Bubble
    Mission Accomplished:

    Stocks managed gains on the month (4th month in a row) - Nasdaq best, Dow worst...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And note that despite the epic surge in the mega tech stocks overnight... Yes, that is AAPL up 10%!! (GOOGL -4%)...MSFT managed to rally back to unch after rumors of it buying TikTok...

    [​IMG]

    Apple is up $170BN today, more than the market cap of Oracle, more than the GDP of Hungary; Apple's value increase today would be the 33rd biggest company in the S&P500.

    Nasdaq was not a one-way street today as CNBC stunningly remarked "nasdaq has now gone negative which is quite interesting..."

    [​IMG]

    And you have to laugh at this - The Dow scraped by today... as AAPL's insane squeeze higher dominated the rest of the entire index...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    but that will change when AAPL splits.

    BUT, it was in currency, commodity, credit, and crypto land that the real fun and games took place.

    Bonds were bid pretty much all month with the long-end notably outperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ... and pushing to new record low yields...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Some highlights:

    • 2Y Treasury yields fell for the 8th month in a row

    • 30Y Treasury yields fell for the 5th month this year

    • 2s30s Curve flattened by the most since August 2019
    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Still a long way down for stocks if bonds are right...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold and silver screamed higher on the month.

    • Silver's best month since 1979 (when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market)

    • Gold's best month since 2011
    Spot Gold reached a new record above Sept 2011 and Futures topped $2000...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver's at its highest since June 2013...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil's up for the 3rd month in a row, but has largely trod water all month...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos soared in July with Ethereum best (up over 50%, its 4th monthly rise in a row) and Bitcoin up 22%...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Ethereum closed at its highest since August 2018...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And helping all these assets rise in value, DXY Dollar Index suffered its biggest monthly drop since 2010...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Breaking a key up-trend line...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Did Washington mess with the 'money' one too many times?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, we note that 'soft' survey macro data has surged full of hope to a region that has not ended well in the recent past

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Better keep pumping...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Remember, Diversify, Diversify, Diversify... oh wait!

    [​IMG]

    h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

    We've seen this before...

    [​IMG]

    h/t KesslerCompanies.com

    Trade accordingly.

    So - summing up July - Stocks up, Bonds up, Gold up, Silver up, Oil up, Crypto up, Dollar Down (along with Fed credibility.)
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    August: Top NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Month of Election Years
    [​IMG]
    August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA.

    Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline.
    [​IMG]
    However, in election years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve: #6 DJIA, #5 S&P 500, #1 NASDAQ (since 1971), #1 Russell 1000 and #1 Russell 2000 (since 1979). This year, the market’s performance in August will likely depend heavily on how July closes and whether or not the rate of covid-19 infection continues to accelerate which could force some areas to roll back reopenings.

    August’s First Trading Day Bearish Last 23 Years
    [​IMG]
    From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2020 Almanac. In the past 23 years DJIA has risen just 30.4% (up 7, down 16) of the time on the first trading day of August. Average and median losses are on the mild side due to a few sizable advances. Over the past nine years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined nine times.

    S&P 500 Stronger Underneath the Surface
    Thu, Jul 30, 2020

    Earlier today we posted a chart showing S&P 500 sector performance since the Nasdaq's recent peak on 7/20 when Technology stocks began what has now been a 10-day period of consolidation. Below we have updated these performance numbers to include today's moves. While not as many sectors remain in positive territory, the majority of sectors continue to outperform the S&P 500, while Technology drags the market lower. Along with Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary are the only other sectors that have lagged the S&P 500, and their performance has been dragged down by the mega-cap tech-like stocks of Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN).

    [​IMG]

    Expanding on this theme of underlying strength in the index, the chart below shows the average performance of stocks in the S&P 500 grouped by sector. On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.3% since 7/20, and only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen negative average returns. On the upside, Real Estate (4.1%) has been the big winner followed by Consumer Discretionary (3.3%), and Consumer Staples (2.2%). The fact that Consumer Discretionary at the cap-weighted sector level is down over 1.4% while the average performance of stocks in the sector has been a gain of 3.3% illustrates what a mammoth impact AMZN has on that sector.

    [​IMG]

    Breadth among S&P 500 stocks has also been overwhelmingly positive. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 59% of stocks in the index have had positive returns since the close on 7/20. Only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen fewer than half of their components post positive returns over that time, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have seen roughly three-quarters of their components rally since 7/20.

    [​IMG]

    Bullish Earnings Season So Far
    Thu, Jul 30, 2020

    At our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales. Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis. Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.

    In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks. Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers. That's a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July. The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.

    [​IMG]

    We also monitor how share prices are reacting to earnings reports. So far this earnings season, the average stock that has reported Q2 numbers has gained 1.31% on its earnings reaction day. That compares to a historical average one-day change of just 0.06% on earnings reaction days. As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have gained 2.2% on earnings reaction days, while companies that have missed EPS estimates have fallen 1.89%. It's rare to see beats gaining more than misses decline, but that's what is happening this season.

    [​IMG]

    China Running Away YTD
    Wed, Jul 29, 2020

    Every Wednesday, we publish our Global Macro Dashboard which provides a high-level summary of market and economic data of some of the world's largest economies. Of the 23 stock markets tracked, just six including the US are positive year to date at the moment (in local currency). In the chart below we show the YTD performance of these six countries as well as the global median in 2020. As shown, even though it was actually the first to tip into the green YTD following the global sell-off in February and March very briefly back in early June, the US is up the least of this group with a YTD gain of 0.4%. China's stock market is up the most at +14%. Taiwan, South Korea, South Africa, and Malaysia are also outperforming the US but are up more modestly than China with the best of these, Taiwan, gaining 4.53% this year. Meanwhile, the median country in our Global Macro Dashboard remains down 6.2% YTD.

    [​IMG]

    Given it is up the most on a year to date basis, China has also gained the largest share of global equity market cap in 2020. As shown in the table below, China has gained 1.7 percentage points of global market cap in 2020 and now takes up 10.14%. China now joins the US as the only other country with a double-digit share of total world market cap. Despite this, China has actually lost share since the bear market lows on 3/23. Meanwhile, the US, Germany, Canada, India, South Korea, and Australia have all gained a significant share since 3/23.

    [​IMG]

    Do the Top 5 Stocks Pose a Risk to the Market?

    Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These five stocks have helped spawn a number of acronyms as they try to capture the rise of mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher for much of the past decade. The average return for those five stocks so far this year has been a gain of more than 30%, while the broad S&P 500 Index is just marginally positive, at 0.4% through July 30.

    While many other areas of the market have remained largely static, the total market value of these stocks has dramatically increased, making them an increasingly large piece of market cap-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the combined weight of the top five stocks in the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level ever, at nearly 22%. Only one of those five stocks (Microsoft) was a top five name in the index during the previous peak of March 2000.

    [​IMG]

    But does this pose a risk to the index? From a diversification standpoint, one could certainly argue it does. For instance, if any shared risks should come up, from regulation, for example, it could do outsized damage to cap-weighted indexes. However, we believe that the recent gains have been justified by the fundamentals, and we continue to favor both large caps over small caps, and growth-style stocks over value stocks. According to analysis from Credit Suisse, over the past 12 months, the top five stocks in the index have grown revenues at 11.2% vs. just 0.8% for the rest of the S&P 500. Further, the remainder of the S&P 500 has subtracted roughly $17 from S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), while the top five stocks have added more than $12.

    Finally, while these stocks have been the face of the recent “stay-at-home trend” and may be more insulated from broader economic weakness, they are far from the only stocks making money this year. On July 30, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index hit a new all-time high and is now up more than 15% year-to-date.

    “After a huge run, many of these top stocks may be due for a pause,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “However, looking out over the next 6 to 12 months, we believe that investors will continue to place a premium on companies that are able to organically grow sales, especially in a low-growth environment.”

    That’s Not A Bubble, This Is A Bubble

    “That’s not a knife … that’s a knife!” Paul Hogan in Crocodile Dundee

    There is growing talk that growth stocks and specifically technology stocks are in a bubble. But as Paul Hogan showed is in the classic 1986 film, not everything is what it seems, and there is always something bigger and more dangerous.

    Yes, there are a few of the large technology and communications stocks dominating the gains, but those companies are also dominating earnings growth, as the COVID-19 pandemic has only intensified their overall leadership.

    In this, the 300-year anniversary of the South Sea Company bubble, it’s important to remember what a real bubble looks like. Back then, King George I, the poet Alexander Pope, and Sir Isaac Newton all got caught up in the massive speculation and took huge losses. Sir Isaac Newton even cashed out gigantic profits, watched the stock of the South Sea Company double in a few weeks, saw his friends get rich, panic-bought back in at twice what he sold for—and then the bubble burst and he lost nearly 80%. Bubbles happen, and they can get even the smartest people in the world caught up in them. But the good news is we don’t see a bubble in growth stocks here; in fact, it is far from it.

    “The idea that growth stocks are in a bubble has picked up significantly lately,” explained LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what might surprise many investors is that when you compare growth stocks versus value stocks, they are just now above levels from two decades ago, so they likely aren’t actually anywhere near a bubble.”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, growth has had a tremendous run, no doubt; but longer-term, when compared with value, growth is actually just now above levels from 20 years ago. This suggests growth could be due for a well-deserved break, but it likely isn’t in the massive bubble that many claim. We continue to like growth for the rest of 2020 and would use any weakness to add to longer-term holdings.

    [​IMG]

    High-Frequency Data Reflects Pause in Recovery

    After carving out the first part of a “V-shaped” recovery, the US economy has leveled off somewhat in response to the latest wave of COVID-19 infections. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary: Stalling Economic Recovery May Slow Stock Market Rally, we highlighted some evidence of a pause, mostly around mobility. We also cited the recent drop in seated diners from OpenTable and the leveling off of map requests for driving directions reported by Apple Maps, and several other data points.

    “Most of the real-time data we follow reflects a pause in the recovery following the latest COVID-19 outbreak,” explained LPL Financial Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. “We expect the stock market to follow the economic data and take a breather after a 45% rally in just four months.”

    Several other high-frequency data points point to a pause in the recovery, including a few related to mobility and the pace of business reopenings.

    Air travel has edged lower in recent weeks amid renewed health restrictions and increasing concerns about COVID-19 outbreaks.

    [​IMG]

    Use of public transportation has tailed off recently in some of the most populated cities in the country, reflecting business closures and increasing health concerns. Google’s announcement Monday that its employees would work from home until summer 2021 suggests this measure of economic activity may flatline for a while.

    [​IMG]

    Electricity demand has fallen from its recent peak in mid-June, though the latest weekly data point rose slightly. Still, this is consistent with other data suggesting a slowdown in the rate at which businesses are reopening.

    [​IMG]

    Some more traditional data points also tell the same story. First, the latest COVID-19 wave has flattened consumer confidence’s recovery trajectory based on Bloomberg’s weekly measure. Today we get the monthly consumer confidence reading from the Conference Board, which is expected to drop 3–4 points from the prior month.

    [​IMG]

    Weekly jobless claims rose for the first time in 16 weeks to over 1.4 million for the period ending July 18 and remain well above the pre-pandemic record high of around 700,000.

    [​IMG]

    Same-store sales at retailers have hardly made up any ground over the past couple of months.

    [​IMG]

    Finally, the New York Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index has shown signs of rolling over in the latest reported week, which could indicate that the third quarter rebound in gross domestic product (GDP) that we expect may not be quite as sharp as many economists expect. The latest reading at -7, which implies an approximately 7% year-over-year decline in GDP, highlights how much ground the economy still has left to make up.

    [​IMG]

    Given recent developments on COVID-19, including some renewed restrictions on public gatherings, it is not particularly surprising that some of these high-frequency data points have pointed to a pause. We knew the first leg of the recovery, like turning the lights on, was going to be the easy part. The key question now is how long it will take for these indicators to resume their climbs. More progress containing the virus in the latest hotspots in the South and West is probably necessary, though we are encouraged by falling daily infection rates in such places as Alabama, Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.31.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.31.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 31st, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.2.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.3.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.3.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.4.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.4.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.5.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.5.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.6.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.6.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.7.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.7.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($CLX $BYND $SQ $MRNA $ROKU $FSLY $TSN $ATVI $CHGG $CVS $W $DIS $MELI $GPN $SPCE $TWLO $CMS $LVGO $MCK $AMRN $ETSY $PLUG $NET $BMY $RACE $TTWO $MPC $MPLX $ZNGA $DBX $DDOG $UBER $WIX $KOS $TTD $ENPH $CRON $BP $TEVA $PENN $FVRR $RNG)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Heads up everyone, I have just added a weekly market direction voting poll at the very top of this thread. Feel free to cast your vote on the weekly direction of the SPX for this week.

    I suppose this is the least I can do here, as I have semi-retired from running the contests as per this post here.

    There will be no record/score keeping from this week.
     
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  11. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    GL in the markets this week. I think tha Nasdaq will break 11k. Where’s the hats?:cool:
     
  12. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    I lost good money on GOOGL last Friday. Let's price it real world terms. Oriental Massage girl will not be seeing me for awhile.
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    <taps on the screen>

    is the market open today? :suspicious:

    this market is like ground hogs days ... where everyday is the same shit, except for the day of the week :lauging:

    can't wait until the summer doldrums are through ... i'm looking forward to seeing some nice moves in BOTH directions :rolleyes2:
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    A lot of tech stocks up big today :eek: My positions for CHGG and SE are now more than double, selling half and so the rest are free shares now :D
     
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  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The SPX less than 3% away from its ATH, who would have guessed we would recover so quickly :rolleyes2:
     
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  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    They doubled in 3 months, didn't they?
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Bought CHGG at $39.60 in February, then it sold off with everything else in March and I wasn’t selling my shares for the losses, guess i was lucky that it worked out :p

    I bought SE at $61.70 in May, thought I was a little late to the party actually but this thing keeps moving higher :p
     
  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    FSLY up huge again :eek: I have no position unfortunately, earnings this week I believe and is a pure play of edge computing
     
  19. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Trump? :horse:
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Nice day for gold again, now comfortably above of $2K :eek:
     

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