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Stock Market Today: August 5th - 9th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Aug 3, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of August 5th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Marriott, Shake Shack, Diamond Offshore, Avis Budget,Continental Resources, Solar Capital, Tenet Healthcare, Caesars Entertainment, Loews, CNA Financial, HSBC, Tyson Foods, Cabot, WPX Energy

    8:30 a.m. Services PMI
    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing 2:00 p.m. Senior loan officers survey

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Disney, Bausch Health, Discovery, Regeneron, Match Group, Wynn Resorts, Hertz Global, Weight Watchers, Zoetis, Blue Apron, Avantor, Host Hotels, Pioneer Natural Resources, Plains All American, American Financial Group, Planet Fitness, Papa John’s Icahn Enterprises, Chesapeake Energy, Pitney Bowes, Tenneco

    10:00 a.m. JOLTS

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: CVS Health, AIG, IAC/InterActive, Fox Corp, TripAdvisor, Roku, Zillow, Softbank, Teva Pharma, Capri Holdings, Cedar Fair, Wendy’s, NY Times, Hostess Brands, Switch, Eventbrite, Liberty Global, CenterPoint, NRG Energy, Royal Ahold

    9:30 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Thursday

    Earnings: News Corp, Liberty Media, Viacom, Axa Equitable, TrueCar, Axon, Wheaton Precious Metals, Activision Blizzard, CBS, Dropbox, Yelp, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Adidas, Norwegian Cruise Line, Anglogold, AMC Entertainment, Lions Gate, Murphy Oil, Fiverr International

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims
    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    • Friday

    Earnings: Tribune Media, WPP Group, Novo Nordisk, Diplomat Pharmacy

    8:30 a.m. PPI
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Suffer Worst Week Of Year; Beans, Bonds, & The Buck Blitz'd
    Tariffs, Turmoil, & Tantrums...


    Since Powell dropped the "mid-cycle adjustment" mic, Bonds and Bullion have been bid, the dollar is practically unchanged and stocks have plunged (hurt more by Trump Tariffs)...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]



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    European stocks cratered today - the biggest single-day drop since Dec 2018 - with Germany and France leading the way lower on the week...

    [​IMG]



    For the first time ever, Germany's entire yield curve (30Y) traded with a negative yield...

    [​IMG]

    10Y Bunds hit -50bps today!!!!

    [​IMG]

    European banks crashed on the week to their lowest since Brexit vote (June 2016)

    [​IMG]



    Broadly, this was the worst 3-day drop for US stocks since Christmas Eve and worst week of 2019... Stocks were - as always - bid in the last hour... until Trump said "he could raise China tariffs to a much higher degree." Nasdaq was the week's biggest loser (and Dow lost the least of the majors)

    [​IMG]

    The S&P closed below its Sept 2018 and May 2019 highs...

    [​IMG]



    US equities plunged to critical technical levels:

    • S&P 500 tested its 50DMA (2927) and 100DMA (2900)

    • Nasdaq tested its 50DMA (7971) and 100DMA (7927)

    • Dow broke below its 50DMA (26472) and tested its 100DMA (26276)

    • Trannies broke below the 50DMA (10358) and 100DMA (10478) and tested its 200DMA (10281)

    • Small Caps broke below the 50DMA (1540) and 100DMA (1551) and tested its 200DMA (1520)
    [​IMG]



    VIX topped 20.00 intraday today before fading back...

    [​IMG]



    FANG Stocks were down every day this week (2nd worst week of the year)...

    [​IMG]



    Cyclical stocks tumbled, their worst week of the year, dramatically underperforming defensives...

    [​IMG]



    Bank stocks were battered, tracking the collapse of the curve...

    [​IMG]



    Despite this week's carnage, bonds and stocks remain dramatically decoupled...

    [​IMG]



    Credit spreads blew wider on the week...

    [​IMG]



    It was a bloodbath for bond bears this week (down 12-20bps across the curve with the long-end outperforming)...

    [​IMG]



    10Y crashed to its lowest yield since before Trump's election...This was the biggest 10Y Yield drop in a week since Dec 2014.

    [​IMG]



    2Y yields were even crazier - initially spiking on Powell then crashing on Trump...

    [​IMG]



    30Y Yields are back at their lowest since Oct 2016...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve (3m10Y) crashed to cycle lows...

    [​IMG]



    And finally, before we leave bond-land, longer-term inflation expectations have fallen the most in the past two days since 2016, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates... a total policy-failure

    [​IMG]



    Amid all the chaos, the dollar index ended the week only marginally higher after a huge round trip the last few days

    [​IMG]

    ...After a false breakout to the highest since May 2017)...

    [​IMG]



    Cable suffered one of its worst weeks since Brexit, dropping to its lowest weekly close since May 1985...

    [​IMG]



    Yuan dropped five of the last six days closing the week at its weakest since Dec 2016 (Yuan has only closed weaker than this twice before... ever)

    [​IMG]



    Emerging Market FX has really collapsed the last few days (Turkey surprisingly outperformed)...

    [​IMG]

    The biggest 3-day drop since Aug 2018 to its lowest since May...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos had a mixed week - best gains since June for Bitcoin as Ether and Litecoin scrambled back to even...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin surged back above $10,000 and extended gains...

    [​IMG]





    Copper was crushed on the week but Gold outperformed as crude rebounded after its worst day in years...

    [​IMG]



    In fact, Dr.Copper has collapsed to two year lows... what does the PhD economist commodity know?

    [​IMG]



    Ugly week for crude...

    [​IMG]



    Gold topped CNH10,000 for the first time since Feb 2013...

    [​IMG]



    Gold reached a new record high against the pound sterling...

    [​IMG]



    Soybeans were monkeyhammered (worst week since Aug 2018) to their lowest since May after Trump tariff headlines...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, you are here...

    [​IMG]

    It's different this time though - remember!

    Different, because it's way more ridiculous (negative-yielding debt tops $14 trillion!!)

    [​IMG]

    And gold and crypto appear to be where investors are going to hide from this policy-maker pandemonium!!
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Next Week's Economic Indicators - 8/2/19
    Fri, Aug 2, 2019

    Economic data may have taken a bit of a backseat amidst the FOMC meeting Wednesday and tariff headlines at the tail end of the week, but the US still had a heavy slate with 38 total releases.

    Data was broadly weaker with almost twice as many releases coming in weaker (20) than stronger (11) relative to forecasts (or the prior release when there was no consensus forecast). The Dallas Fed kicked off the week with a weaker than expected reading on manufacturing activity, but it was an improvement from June’s level of negative 12.1. In other manufacturing data, on Thursday we got Markit and ISM PMIs which were mixed. While Markit was stronger, the headline reading of ISM was weaker; new orders did improve, however. Headline factory orders were also weaker, but excluding transportation they were unchanged. As forecasted, personal income and spending weakened while inflation came in at a slower than expected pace on Tuesday. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence indices were the main bright spot of the week with stronger readings across the board. Claims data continued to show a slower pace of improvement on Thursday as both initial and continuing claims came in above expectations. Meanwhile, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report was the most inline with expectations since October 2012, coming in only 1K below forecasts of 165K.

    [​IMG]

    Economic data is much lighter next week. The non-manufacturing portions of ISM and Markit PMIs are due on Monday. JOLTS and consumer credit are out on Wednesday. Producer inflation gauges are set to be released Friday.

    [​IMG]

    Fakeouts
    Fri, Aug 2, 2019

    Throughout the course of the entire year, large caps have been leading the market higher, and they are the only market cap range of the equity market to actually make new highs in the most recent leg higher for equities. After this week's pullback, though, the S&P 500 is coming perilously close to breaking through support at the prior highs from April and last fall. A close below those levels today would not be a great mood-setter for the bulls heading into the weekend.

    [​IMG]

    For Mid and Small Caps, the picture is even less optimistic. The S&P 400 Mid Cap index never came close to a new high in the most recent rally, but it did appear to break its downtrend from the highs late last year. But that breakout quickly turned to a fakeout this week as the S&P 400 broke back down below its prior downtrend line and is breaking below the 50-DMA today.

    [​IMG]

    For the small-cap Russell 2000, it's an identical picture. In this case, the break above the downtrend line was even more short-lived, and like the S&P 400, the Russell 2000 is not only back below its 50-DMA, but it also isn't that far from breaking below its 200-DMA.

    [​IMG]

    Earnings Season Déjà Vu
    Fri, Aug 2, 2019

    Is it happening again? After what has to this point been a perfectly good earnings season for the US stock market sending the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in the process, the President spoiled the party yesterday when he tweeted that a new round of tariffs would be instituted on Chinese Imports. Stocks had erased all of their declines from Powell's Wednesday press conference by mid-day Thursday, but then the President’s tweet sent equity markets reeling with the Dow falling more than 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell back below 2%.

    If this whole scenario sounds familiar to you, that’s because we saw the same thing last quarter. Remember back in April when the S&P 500 rallied to new highs in the early weeks of earnings season? There was a feeling then that the market was finally breaking out of its rut and on the path to a sustained breakout. But then over the first weekend of May, on a Sunday afternoon no less, the President sent out a series of tweets outlining his plan for increased tariffs on Chinese imports. The following Monday, the market opened lower and kept falling throughout the month. By the end of May, the S&P 500 was down 6.6% for the month, making it the worst May for the S&P 500 since 2010. August has historically been an iffy month for the stock market as many on Wall Street take vacations and try to relax, but if the market follows the earnings season script from last quarter, this will be an August of little rest.

    [​IMG]

    President Takes Matters into His Own Hands
    Fri, Aug 2, 2019

    The President has been frustrated with the Federal Reserve’s prior rate hikes and now the lack of a more substantial cut in rates. Just the other day, Trump was quoted as saying, “Obama had zero interest rates, we have ‘normalized’ rates. While the Fed hasn’t helped the President’s cause, he has seemingly taken matters into his own hands with his policy towards China. Each time he ratchets up the rhetoric against China, it tends to put additional downward pressure on interest rates, and following Thursday’s tweets, the yield on the 10-year plummetted below 1.9%.

    Ironically enough, the last time the 10-year yield was this low was on Election Day 2016. While short-term borrowing costs are up as the FOMC has hiked rates during Trump's time in office, the yield on the 10-year isn’t much different. Under the eight years of President Obama, the yield on the 10-year averaged 2.47%, while under Trump the average yield has been 2.57%.

    [​IMG]

    The chart below shows a shorter-term look at the 10-year yield over the last year and it has practically been in free-fall the entire time. Ever since late 2018, every time the yield has attempted to make a move above its 50-DMA, it has reversed lower, with the most recent leg lower in May coinciding with another series of tweets concerning tariffs on Chinese goods.

    [​IMG]

    While not a lot of stocks have benefitted from the President’s policy tweets on Chinese tariffs, the impact of lower interest rates has been cheered on by the homebuilders as they have practically been a completely inverse image of the move in rates. Just yesterday, the group hit a new high before pulling back a bit, but lower long-term interest rates mean lower mortgage payments, and that helps to make housing more affordable for millions of millennials looking for a place of their own.

    [​IMG]

    Outside Day for Gold (GLD)
    Fri, Aug 2, 2019

    Even though assets have been selling off across the board in response to Wednesday's Fed decision and the President's announcement of increased tariffs yesterday, there is one bullish point to be found. Yesterday, gold (GLD) had initially moved slightly lower around the open but then surged into the close, finishing the day only a couple of cents off of the intraday high. Not only did GLD fully recoup the morning's losses, but it also gained back the previous day's losses and then some. This outside day/bullish engulfing pattern is typically seen as a bullish technical signal.

    [​IMG]

    This pattern has occurred a total of 35 times in the history of the Gold ETF (GLD). Below we show the 10 previous times that this pattern was observed after not having occurred in the previous six months. Despite being a bullish setup, performance in the next week has actually had a negative bias with an average return of -0.57%. The past five times have seen a loss in the following week. Likewise, three months out sees better than average returns but the probability of GLD trading higher is the just the same as a coinflip. But, generally, in the months and year after, GLD continues to trend higher on average with more consistent gains in the next month, 6 months, and year periods. Returns are also better than normal across these time frames.

    [​IMG]

    Solid Jobs Growth in July

    The job market continues to be a pillar of strength for the U.S. economy.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose 164,000 in July, in line with consensus estimates for a 165,000 gain, according to the jobs report released August 2. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Solid Jobs Growth in July, job creation has slowed slightly this year amid the aging economic expansion, but not to levels that concern us. The 12-month average payrolls gain through July was 187,000, still an above-average pace for the expansion.

    [​IMG]

    Strength in the job market is especially important these days as U.S. consumers increasingly bear the weight of economic growth. Consumer activity added 2.9 percentage points to second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), carrying GDP growth to 2.1%.

    Initial jobless claims, a leading economic indicator, have also pointed to firm labor-market conditions. The four-week average for unemployment claims fell to the fifth-lowest level of the expansion through July 26.

    “We’ve been encouraged by the labor market’s resiliency amid recent global uncertainty,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “A solid labor market should continue to bolster consumer confidence and buoy economic activity.”

    Average hourly earnings grew 3.2% year over year in July, a faster pace than June’s growth and at a healthy clip for the U.S. consumer. Wages constitute about 70% of business costs, so we’re hoping meaningful pay increases will eventually help lift consumer inflation, countering weakness in global demand. The unemployment rate climbed to 3.7%, still near a cycle low.

    August: Better in Pre-Election Years, But Still Not Great
    [​IMG]
    Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA.

    In pre-election years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve modestly: #7 DJIA, #8 S&P 500, #10 NASDAQ (since 1971), #9 Russell 1000 and #10 Russell 2000 (since 1979). Average performance in pre-election years is positive except for Russell 2000 which is unchanged.
    [​IMG]
    Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011 and 2013 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline. A strong August in 2014 of S&P 3.8% and NASDAQ 4.8% preceded corrections of 7.4% and 8.4% respectively from mid-September to mid-October.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 8.2.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for August 2nd, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.4.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 8.5.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 8.5.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.6.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 8.6.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.7.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 8.7.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.8.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 8.8.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.9.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 8.9.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($DIS $ROKU $CVS $CHK $TTD $TEVA $TSN $CRON $ATVI $KHC $CYBR $ON $UBER $STMP $MRO $TEUM $BKNG $TTWO $MELI $NBEV $L $BHC $SWKS $WYNN $OSTK $DBX $KOS $GWPH $OESX $PLUG $CAR $LYFT $SHAK $CTL $HEAR $AMC $APRN $REGN $PLNT $SOGO $WW)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. hungphong

    hungphong New Member

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    On Trading Plus software system, the DJI is currently showing a sell signal. Almost all indicators as well as stocks of the world are affected by this index.

    On August 1, 2019, the DJI index was more than 280 points (equivalent to more than 1%). Along with that, Trading Plus system is giving sell signals.
    [​IMG]
    Signal DJI in the Trading Plus

    Investors pay attention to this signal. Especially large stocks such as MICROSOFT, APPLE, FACEBOOK, McDonalds, Intel, Nike, ... almost all stocks of large companies are falling sharply.

    Especially on July 31, 2019 Central Banks Federal Reserve (FED) announced no longer interest rates. And has reduced 0.25% daily interest rate during news announcement. This is the largest cause of this index falling.
     
  14. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Fun start to the week for anyone not heavily invested in the market. Enjoy your entries!

    For those of us who are in heavy already, RIP
     
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  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    We need a tweet in the other direction! lol
     
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  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    How about "I HAVE SIGNED INTO LAW THAT THE STOCK MARKET CANNOT GO DOWN"
     
  17. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    all this drop over 10% of a yuan....not even one penny...manipulation at it's finest

    and China manipulating their currency again....busted!
     
  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    "The dirty corrupt fake news media is reporting that Juan has lost 10% but we are doing great things and your favorite president will contact this Juan guy and fix our big beautiful stock market"
     
  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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  20. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    I had some 8/23 VXX $26 Calls I bought right before the rate decision and sold for a 95% gain. They're up over 700% at this point:(
     
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