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Stock Market Today: December 28th - January 1st, 2021

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Dec 23, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 28th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Tuesday

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    • Wednesday

    8:30 a.m. Advanced leading indicators

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    • Friday

    New Year’s Day

    markets closed
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    BABA Battered, Brexit Breakthrough, & Bailout Busted - Buck & Bond Yields Drop
    Jack Ma might be (or have been) the richest man in China, but right now he is learning the hard way, you don't mess with the gods. Since his criticism of China's financial regulations during an appearance at a high-profile industry conference in October, he has seen his Ant Group IPO cancelled, regulatory crackdowns on lending (the company's main business), and last night saw further action by Chinese officials investigating anti-trust violations. These actions have clubbed the giant Chinese tech firm (and Ma's wealth) like a baby seal...its worst day ever!

    [​IMG]

    Of course, in response, this happened...

    as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, a prominent China critic, speculated that Ma isn't actually retiring - rather, his carefully choreographed decision to step down is the result of being "forcibly removed from his position, stripped of his shareholdings (transferred to "five unnamed individuals" with the same address), and will likely be jailed or 'disappeared' within the next year."

    [​IMG]

    We guess Emperor-for-life trumps 'untouchable' oligarch. Still , could be worse... you could be stuck in a truck in Dover for Xmas...

    A lack of COVID Relief (after Trump poked the hornet's nest of pork... to mix metaphors), sent stocks lower on the day, pushing S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq red for the week (and erasing some of Small Caps' gains). Late-day ramp pushed Nasdaq and Dow back into the green...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX plunged to a 21 handle today, back at quad-witch spike lows...

    [​IMG]

    Bonds were bid today, erasing yesterday's spike and ending the week lower by 1-3bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Once again, it seems the invisible hand of 'someone' stepped in to hold yields back from breaking out...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar slipped lower on the day, but higher on the shortened week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Cable rallied up to recent high stops on Brexit deal headlines...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin was flatish this week, oscillating around the $23k-$24k mark...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But XRP was monkeyhammered after the SEC probe headlines, erasing all the year's gains...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Commodities were mixed with PMs flat on the week but Copper and Crude lower as COVID-Lockdown Relief faded away and lockdowns spread around the world...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold managed to get back above its 50DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But WTI managed to scramble back above $48 again...

    [​IMG]

    Finally, have no fear... there's no inflation (except in what you eat!!)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And as real yields plunge back near record lows, gold is due to catch up (and has risen 16 of the last 20 years over the next week)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And as if it matters, US economic data has been collapsing recently...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Santa Claus Rally Started Today! First Leg of January Indicator Trifecta
    [​IMG]
    We have stood on Yale Hirsch’s shoulders and combined his #SantaClausRally (SCR) with his #JanuaryBarometer (JB) and our #FirstFiveDays “Early Warning” System (FFD) to create our “January Indicator Trifecta.”

    Stock Trader’s Almanac founder and creator, Yale Hirsch (97 years old and counting!), discovered and named both the “Santa Claus Rally” and the “January Barometer” in 1972 in the Almanac and coined the phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

    The “Santa Claus Rally” began today on Christmas Eve day December 24and lasts until the second trading day of 2021. Average S&P 500 gains over this seven trading-day range since 1969 are a respectable 1.3%. This is the first indicator of our “January Indicator Trifecta” for the market in the New Year. Years when the “Santa Claus Rally” (SCR) has failed to materialize are often flat or down.

    The best case, most bullish scenario is when all three indicators, SCR, FFD and JB, are positive as shown in table below. In 31 previous Trifecta occurrences since 1950, S&P 500 advanced 87.1% of the time during the subsequent eleven months and 90.3% of the time for the full year. However, a January Indicator Trifecta does not guarantee the year will be bear or correction free. Of the four losing “Last 11 Mon” years 1966, 1987 and 2011 experienced short duration bear markets (2011, S&P 500 –19.4% peak to trough). In 2018, S&P 500 retreated 19.8% from its September high close to its December low close.
    [​IMG]
    Do You Believe In The Santa Claus Rally?

    “If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh

    December is widely known as one of the best months of the year for stocks, but most don’t realize that the majority of the gains happen in the second half of the month.

    [​IMG]

    Equity strength at this time of the year is widely known as the Santa Claus Rally, but the term is somewhat misunderstood. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac (carried on now by his son Jeff Hirsch), the real Santa Claus Rally is the final five trading days of the year and first two trading days of the following year, not just December. In other words, the official Santa Claus Rally is set to begin Thursday, December 24.

    So how likely are these seven trading days to be higher? Well, there isn’t a single seven-day combo out of the full year that is more likely to be higher than the 77.9% of the time higher we’ve seen previously during the Santa Claus Rally. Additionally, these seven days are up an average of 1.33%, which is the second-best seven-day combo of the year. Do you believe yet?

    [​IMG]

    “Why are these seven days so strong?” asked LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Whether optimism over a coming new year, holiday spending, traders on vacation, institutions squaring up their books before the holidays—or the holiday spirit—the bottom line is that bulls tend to believe in Santa.”

    The LPL Chart of the Day illustrates how the Santa Claus Rally has performed over the past 20 years. Usually these seven days are higher, which leads to strength in January. But what stands out to us is that the times Santa didn’t come, January was lower each time. Now do you believe?

    [​IMG]

    Let’s take a closer look at what happens when things don’t go according to plan. Remember, Yale Hirsch told us, “If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” This is because the New York Stock Exchange is at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets.

    Going back to the mid-1990s, there have been only six times Santa failed to show in December. January was lower five of those six times, and the full year had a solid gain only once (in 2016, but a mini-bear market early in the year). “Considering the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 both took place after one of the rare instances that Santa failed to show makes believers out of us. Should this seasonally strong period miss the mark, it could be a warning sign,” explained Santa Claus believer Detrick.

    [​IMG]

    Housing Inventories Keep Dropping
    Wed, Dec 23, 2020

    Yesterday's Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors for the month of November continued to impress. As discussed in last night's Closer, Existing Sales came in at 6.69 million SAAR. Although lower, snapping a streak of five straight months of increases, sales continue to come in at some of the highest levels since 2006. With sales running at such a strong clip recently, inventory numbers have been nothing short of remarkable: there are only 1.32 million listed units nationally with 1.12 million single-family homes listed. Both respective readings are the lowest levels of the past two decades. Even with declines in volumes, the ongoing collapse in inventory levels has driven the number of units in inventory down to 2.37 months' sales (only 2.25 months for single family homes), a new record low. We should note that implied new listings have indeed risen. They stand in the mid-6mm SAAR range, the highest since 2007 but still about 20% below the 8mm range that they hit in the mid-2000s. While prices are still extremely high, they did drop sequentially on the month thanks most likely to a shift in mix towards lower value homes. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.

    [​IMG]
     
    JaysonW likes this.
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 12.24.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 12.24.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for December 24th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.27.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 12.28.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 12.28.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 12.29.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 12.29.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Wednesday 12.30.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Wednesday 12.30.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Thursday 12.31.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Thursday 12.31.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Friday 1.1.21 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.)

    Friday 1.1.21 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.)
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally, here is the Globex futures holiday schedule for this upcoming New Year's Day holiday:

    [​IMG]

    Here's to a VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR to all of our members here at Stockaholics! Have a happy and prosperous New Year with your families and friends and stay healthy and safe everyone! Many thanks goes out to all of you who have kept this forum active on a daily basis for this seriously cannot be said enough times IMHO. thank you, Thank You, THANK YOU! :cool2: Catch y'all's in the new year!
     
  11. internationalstocks

    internationalstocks Active Member

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    I expect a red monthly candle for January. The higher we go now the bigger the drop in January. Trump wanted 30,000 for this year and he got it and he also said if Biden wins and takes over we will see huge losses. He wants to hand Biden an overinflated balloon that will pop when he hands it over in January. Then he will say that when Biden took over we saw the worst losses on Wall Street. He wants bragging rights.. I think it was setup to play his way. He got what he wanted already. Only one thing left and I think the Republicans along with Trump have planned this well for a bit drop to take place if Biden takes over. Wait and see..
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Admittedly, and I'd be lying if I did not say so myself, but I'm reeeeeally liking the sound of that @internationalstocks :D

    Good to see you back in here btw. :)
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    BABA turning green :eek: Probably won’t touch it for awhile though since the Chinese government is getting involved :p
     
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Big intraday turnaround for UPST :eek: Got in at $38.91 :D
     
  15. BigPear

    BigPear Member

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    Will Alibaba soon bounce back to where it was before?
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Probably will but not anytime soon ;) If you are ready to be in it for a super long term then could be a buying opportunity on another dip
     
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Seems like those big winners of the year (a lot of tech stocks) are getting sold so far this week. Yesterday the FAANG stocks outperformed but most tech stocks were down
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    XBI down almost 3% :eek: Got back into CRSP at $153.38 :D
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    whelp, this is my final day on in 2020. going away for the remainder of this week.

    i just wanted to quickly take this time to wish all of you and your families and friends the very best new year! have a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2021 you guys! and thank you all soooooo much for all of the great contributions around the forums all year long! i honestly cannot say this enough times! we all greatly appreciate it!! :thumbsup:

    let's all hope for a better year, as far as this pandemic goes!

    will catch y'all's in the new year.

    edit: oh and btw in case anyone in here was wondering - the markets (at least as far as our own markets are concerned) do trade on a full day on thursday (new year's eve) but are closed on friday.
     

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