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Stock Market Today: December 2nd - 6th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Nov 30, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 2nd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Coup Software, Yunji, Afya

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10 a.m. Construction spending

    • Tuesday

    Monthly vehicle sales

    Earnings: Salesforce.com, Workday, Marvell Tech, Donaldson, Bank of Montreal, Zscaler

    10 a.m. QFR

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Campbell Soup, H&R Block, Slack, Five Below, RH, Progyny, Semtech, Royal Bank of Canada, John Wiley

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    10 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles at House Financial Services Committee

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Tiffany, Kroger, Dollar General, Signet Jewelers, Michaels Cos, Brown-Forman, Canadian Imperial Bank, Toronto Dominion, Ulta Beauty, PagerDuty, Cloudera, Medalia, Zoom Video, Okta, Zumiez, CrowdStrike, DocuSign, Cooper Cos, Duluth

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. International trade

    10 a.m. Factory orders

    10 a.m. Quarles at Senate Banking Committee

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Employment report

    10 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10 a.m. Wholesale trade

    3 p.m. Consumer credit
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Precious Metals Pummeled In November As Stocks, Dollar Soar On Trade-Deal Hype
    Despite what the market thinks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...Jay Powell "is not the messiah"...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European stocks were higher on the week and month led by UK's FTSE...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    US stocks soared this week (led by Small Caps) to cap another strong month (led by Nasdaq)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Some selling today into month-end but US majors were all higher on the week

    [​IMG]

    "Most Shorted" Stocks had their 'best' week since October (and best month since June) as the short-squeeze continues for a 3rd straight month...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Trade Deal hope was increasingly priced into stocks (3rd monthly rise in hope)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Momo had another down month, Value was flat...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX ended lower for the 3rd month in a row, but today saw some weakness starting to creep back in...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields are higher on the month (led by the belly of the curve) with the long-end outperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    On the week, yields are more mixed with the long-end lower and belly higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y Yields pushed up algorithmically today to tag unch for the week before fading fast...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve steepened for the 3rd month in a row (but only thanks to today's bounce off unch)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar was higher for the 4th of last 5 months (best month since July)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar ended a strong week on a big down-note...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos had another ugly month, saved a little by recent buying rebound into month-end...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But higher on the week with Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash leading the rebound...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil prices managed gains on the month despite collapsing today. Gold and Silver had a tough month...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crude was clubbed like a baby seal today on Russia/Saudi headlines...

    [​IMG]



    But remains the best month since June...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    This was silver's second worst month since Nov 2016 (Trump's election) dramatically underperforming gold...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Palladium was the only precious metal to manage gains on the month...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Additionally, NatGas prices have collapsed...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, everything is awesome for everything this year...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Judging by the stock markets, China is seriously losing the trade war...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Because fun-durr-mentals don't matter...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Next Week's Economic Indicators - 11/29/19
    Fri, Nov 29, 2019

    Even with a holiday and a shortened session Friday leaving no US releases in the past 48 hours, it was a very busy week for economic data with 36 releases in the first three days. Most of this data came in stronger than expected or above the prior reading where there were no forecasts. While the bulk of the week's data was strong, manufacturing data, namely from the regional Fed indices, was mixed. We started off with a weaker Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. The index fell from -0.45 last month to -0.71 rather than the expected improvement to -0.2. The Dallas Fed's index was also out on Monday and it improved more than expected as well as versus the prior month. On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed's gauge on manufacturing was also worse than expected. On the bright side, other manufacturing hard data like durable goods came in much stronger than both the previous month and consensus forecasts. Housing data was also solid this week with better than anticipated home price growth shown in two of the three indicators: the quarterly Home Price Purchase Index, FHFA, and Case-Shiller (only the Case-Shiller index was weaker than expected, albeit up from the prior month). The second release of third-quarter GDP was the most notable indicator of the week with a much stronger than expected reading which showed the economy grew by 2.1% QoQ versus estimates of a 1.9% growth rate.

    [​IMG]

    We kick off December with another busy few days next week. Final November Markit and ISM numbers will kick off the week on Monday. While Markit is not expecting any change from the preliminary readings, ISM is expected to improve to 49.2 which would still be a contractionary print. In hard manufacturing data, later in the week we will see final durable and capital goods numbers for November. Vehicle sales figures will be the only release on Tuesday followed by the service counterparts to Markit and ISM indices on Wednesday as the rest of the week's main focus will be on labor data. After a surprisingly strong release last month, Nonfarm Payrolls is again expecting a strong print showing 190K jobs created in the month of November.

    [​IMG]

    Stocks To Be The Most Thankful For
    Wed, Nov 27, 2019

    Below is a list of the 25 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2019. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) tops the list with a gain of more than 100%. While no other S&P 500 stocks have yet to double this year, another semi name, Lam Research (LRCX) has come close with a gain of 99%. Xerox (XRX), MarketAxess (MKTX), and Target (TGT) have also all risen more than 90%.

    [​IMG]

    Apple (AAPL) is the 19th best performing stock in the list above. But because of its trillion+ dollar market cap, Apple's (AAPL) 69% gain has a much bigger impact on the overall stock market than all of the other stocks that have seen a bigger price move this year. In fact, of the S&P 500's 25% price gain this year, Apple has accounted for 2.24 of those percentage points (or roughly 9%).

    Instead of looking at simple year-to-date price change, below is a list of the stocks that investors should be most thankful for this year because of their contribution to the S&P's gains. Right behind Apple (AAPL) in first is the other trillion+ dollar company -- Microsoft (MSFT) -- which has accounted for 1.7 percentage points of the S&P's 25% gain. After AAPL and MSFT are Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). Together these five mega-caps account for 25% of the S&P's move higher this year. While this group of companies has been vilified in 2019 for a number of things, they're certainly still delivering for the stock market in a big way.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Running Strong
    Wed, Nov 27, 2019

    The S&P 500 may be hitting record highs at a pace of more than once every other day, but would you believe that there are still Industry Groups trading below their 50-day moving averages? The chart below shows the rolling percentage of Industry Groups trading above their 50-DMAs over the last several years, and the current reading stands at 91.7%. Over the last five years there have been numerous periods where a higher percentage (and even 100%) of Industry Groups traded above their 50-DMAs, and the most recent was back in July.

    [​IMG]

    So which are the two outlier groups that are still below their 50-DMAs? Well, when everyone seems to be taking an offensive posture in the market, it's only natural that defensive sectors would be lagging, and two of the most defensive-oriented sectors in this yield-hungry world we live in are Utilities and Real Estate. Even these two groups, though, are only about 1% below their 50-DMAs, so all it will take is one or two good days for these groups to get them back over the hump. On the upside, Health Care Equipment & Services is the furthest above its 50-DMA at 7.72%.

    The S&P 500 as a whole is currently just over 4% above its 50-DMA. What's interesting to note here, though, is that just 9 of the 24 Industry Groups are further above their 50-DMAs while 15 are not above their 50-DMAs by as much as the S&P 500. In terms of YTD returns, the S&P 500 is currently sitting on a gain of more than 25% YTD. Leading the way higher this year, Tech Hardware (Apple) has rallied just under 48%, while Semis are up just over 40%. Behind these two leaders, four other Industry Groups are up over 30% YTD. While there is no downside on a YTD basis, Energy has been the biggest laggard and is just barely hanging on to a YTD gain. If Energy can't hang onto a YTD gain in a year where the S&P 500 gains more than 25%, Energy investors may need to wear paper bags over their heads.

    [​IMG]

    Another ROW Fake Out?
    Tue, Nov 26, 2019

    In terms of relative strength, it's been a long decade for global equities outside of the United States. In the aftermath of 9/11 through most of the first decade of the 21st Century, US equities lagged their global peers as European economic growth outpaced the United States. Since 2007, though, global equities have consistently underperformed the S&P 500. While there have been brief periods where international equities had their time in the sun, clouds have always been quick to appear.

    This past summer, the relative strength of the MSCI ex US index dropped to its lowest level since at least 1999. From the lows in August, we started to see another period where capital shifted back towards international stocks, but as shown in the lower chart, as the S&P 500 has been hitting record highs just about every other day in the last month, their global peers haven't been able to keep up. As a result of the underperformance, the nascent uptrend for international equities has started to breakdown. If the prior low in relative strength from the summer doesn't hold up, all of the goodwill that international stocks had built up in recent weeks will quickly melt away.

    [​IMG]

    Technology Sector P/E Highest in Ten Years
    Tue, Nov 26, 2019

    As equities run to all-time highs, valuations are at a fairly interesting point. As shown in the chart below using data from our Daily Sector Snapshot included with our Morning Lineup and The Closer, most sectors' valuations are at the upper end of the past ten years' range. Four sectors, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Utilities, and Technology all have trailing P/E ratios in the 90th percentile or higher of the past ten years' readings.

    Since the S&P 500 established its first all-time high since July on October 28th, Health Care and Financials have been two of the strongest performers rising 6.68% and 4.35%, respectively. Despite these runs, both of these sectors still have reasonable valuations relative to the past decade. For Financials, the current trailing price-to-earnings ratio is in the 42nd percentile of all days of the past ten years. No other sector has such a low reading although Materials and Energy are on the lower end relative to other sectors. On the other hand, Utilities and Technology have some of the highest valuations of the past ten years with the current P/E in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.

    [​IMG]

    As shown in the chart below, most of the last 9-12 months has seen valuations for Utilities consistently in the uppermost range of the past ten years as investors chased yield in a low interest rate environment. But as risk-free rates have risen more recently, valuations for Utilities have pulled back a bit as price has slid. While there have been other periods in the past ten years where Utilities' P/E ratio was similarly elevated, arguably only 2016/2017 saw it remain at the upper end of the ten-year range as consistently as has been the case this year.

    For Technology it is a whole different story. The P/E for the sector got crushed this time last year and after plummeting to the 31st percentile, it is has rebounded to the highest levels of the past ten years. The only other time that the sector traded at a similar premium relative to the past decade's range was back in early 2018.

    [​IMG]

    Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally Trade
    [​IMG]
    Everyone is talking about yearend seasonal strength this year, but it’s not news to us. 2019 has been tracking historical seasonal market patterns quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to track it.

    Our good friend Larry McMillan (@optstrategist) trades seasonal yearend strength with the Russell 2000 from the close the day before Thanksgiving through the end of our Santa Claus Rally (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year).

    So here we have run the numbers from 1979 when the Russell index data begins comparing R2K to the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The small-cap index Russell 2000 is the best performer up an average 3.1% (median 3.2%) with an 80% win ratio up 32 of the last 40 years. Last year was the worst and it’s been down 3 of the last 5 years.
    [​IMG]
    Giving Thanks for the U.S. Consumer
    November 27, 2019

    This Thanksgiving, we’re thankful for solid consumer confidence, even though it has wavered in recent months.

    Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November, according to preliminary Conference Board data. Even though the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped from its economic cycle peak, consumer sentiment is still historically elevated, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.

    [​IMG]

    We’ve been pleasantly surprised by the U.S. consumer’s resilience over the past year as other parts of the domestic economy have weakened amid global headwinds. Strong consumer spending has helped the economy grow at a 2% average rate over the past two quarters, despite drags on growth from business spending, inventories, and trade.

    “Consumer sentiment has been largely immune from global headwinds,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We expect consumer spending to power economic growth through next year, so we’d like to see consumer confidence pick up more with signs of trade progress.”

    Consumers have several reasons to be optimistic. Employment is the primary driver of consumer health, and the U.S. labor market has been resilient. Wages are growing at a healthy rate, and consumers are reaping the benefits of tax cuts and record-high stock prices. As long as the job market stays solid and inflation remains in check, we feel good about consumers’ prospects.

    Still, there are growing signs of concern. While survey respondents have remained optimistic about present conditions, their outlook on future conditions has soured, according to the Conference Board. If consumers are feeling less confident about the future, they may be less inclined to spend and invest. That loss of confidence in the outlook could lead to economic weakness over time if consumers step back.

    Overall, we would need to see more significant deterioration in consumer confidence before we would start to worry about the economic outlook.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.29.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 22nd, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.1.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 12.2.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 12.2.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 12.3.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 12.3.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 12.4.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 12.4.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 12.5.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 12.5.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 12.6.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 12.6.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($CRM $DG $ULTA $COUP $MRVL $WDAY $ZS $RH $OKTA $TIF $CRWD $KR $CLDR $DSX $WORK $BMO $ZM $CPB $FIVE $QTT $DOCU $MIK $TD $YJ $LE $AVAV $RY $SNPS $HQY $DCI $BIG $GSM $SIG $SMAR $GIII $HOME $HRB $DLTH $TLYS $ZUO $GEF $JW.A $GMS $EXPR $ZUMZ)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome to the new trading month of December! Looks like a green start to the trading day today at least initially.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    U.S. manufacturing sector slumps further in November: ISM

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...-weakens-further-in-november---ism-2019-12-02


    Guess it is driving the market today. Interestingly bonds and gold aren’t exactly hot today and the bank stocks are holding up pretty well :eek:

    My guess is if the service PMI and the jobs report are ok later this week then the market could probably shrug the manufacturing data off, otherwise the slowdown concerns could be back
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ^^ so bad news is actually bad news for a change? :p

    this market has been on an absolute tear these past couple of weeks...this is just an excuse for a little pullback/breather which is much needed and healthy, so they'll use any headline they can grab to say this is the reason for it as usual :D
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Above Average Volumes on a Low Volume Day
    Mon, Dec 2, 2019

    As could be expected due to the shortened session following the Thanksgiving holiday, volumes were very light on Friday. For the S&P 500 (SPY) which declined 40 bps, volumes on Friday were just 62.7% of the 50-day average. In the S&P 1500, there were just 32 stocks that saw above-average volumes. Below is snapshot of them from our Biggest Movers tool, which traders use daily to see the S&P 1500 stocks that rose and fell the most, the highest/lowest volumes relative to their 50-DMAs, and overbought and oversold levels.

    Of the 32 stocks that saw above-average volumes on Friday, Tech Data (TECD) rose the most with a 12.32% gain. It was also the best performing stock of the entire S&P 1500 index on Friday. Arlo Technologies (ARLO) also surged on Friday rising more than 8%. While TECD is now extremely overbought with this move, ARLO is not even one standard deviation from its 50-DMA as it was coming off of extremely oversold levels. On the other hand, RLI (RLI) fell the most of the stocks that saw above-average volumes. While TECD was the best stock in the index, RLI was the fourth worst. Most other high volume stocks on Friday experienced more modest price changes.

    While RLI and TECD were some of the biggest movers, they also saw elevated volumes of double or more their 50-day average. Other stocks that saw similarly elevated volumes include: S&T Bancorp (STBA), Simmons First National (SFNC), Oritani Financial (ORIT), Daktronics (DAKT), WR Berkley (WRB), Valley National Bancorp (VLY), and Central Garden & Pet (CENTA).

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    although last december was pretty brutal for the market, the spx has never ended red in december during a pre-election year 2 times in a row. recall that it was red in 2015. will be interesting to see if it happens this time :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah haha this market has pretty much gone straight up, a much needed little pullback today
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  19. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Volatility, thy name is December (?)

    For non-trending (or range-bound) data, crossovers on the 8 EMA/20 EMA daily plot are one of my favorite short-term indicators of change. The VIX has reliably complied with this indicator in the recent past (see below). Actually, if you pick any year of daily VIX data, the 8/20 EMA crossover has been pretty good for signalling at least a short-term volatility spike.

    Screenshot 2019-12-03 at 8.38.08 AM.png
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    After Hours vs. Regular Trading Hours
    Mon, Dec 2, 2019

    The S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) is up roughly 25% year-to-date. But below we have broken out SPY's 2019 move by after hours versus regular trading hours. The "after hours" strategy represents SPY's move outside of regular trading hours -- its change from the prior day's close to the current day's open. Given that most major events that impact the stock market occur outside of regular trading hours from 9:30 AM ET to 4 PM ET (like earnings reports, economic indicator releases, and anything that occurs in Asia or Europe before the US opens for trading), SPY nearly always opens at a different price that it closed at the prior trading day. When you see S&P 500 futures trading up significantly in pre-market trading, SPY's opening price at 9:30 AM ET is going to be a lot higher than the price it closed at the prior day. When equity futures are down in pre-market trading ahead of the opening bell, it means SPY will open lower that day.

    Conversely, the "regular trading hours" strategy represents SPY's move from its opening price at 9:30 AM ET to its closing price at 4 PM ET. This strategy shows how well the stock market is performing on an intraday basis. When you combine the "after hours" move with the "regular trading hours" move, you get SPY's full-day change from its prior close to that day's close.

    Below we show how well an investor would have done this year by just owning SPY after hours versus just owning SPY during regular trading hours. As shown, had you bought SPY at the close every day and sold it at the next day's open, you would have a gain of 11.1%. On the other hand, if you did the opposite and bought at the open every day and sold at the close, you'd be up 12.3%.

    Interestingly, the "regular trading hours" strategy started the year extremely strong, making up essentially all of the market's gains over the first three months of the year. During that time period, the "after hours" strategy was essentially flat, which means SPY was opening flat and then seeing a lot of intraday buying.

    During Q2 and Q3, there was a lot of back and forth with the "after hours" strategy. During periods when the trade war was really hot, we saw a lot of lower opens, but that stopped once the trade rhetoric cooled down. As shown, since the beginning of August, we've seen the "after hours" strategy go from up 0% YTD to up 11% YTD. Over the same time period, we've seen the "regular trading hours" strategy trade lower, although it's up a little over the last two months. This has caused the two strategies to converge to near even on a year-to-date basis as we approach year-end.

    [​IMG]

    if we run the strategy back to the start of 2018, the "after hours" strategy is still crushing the "regular trading hours" strategy. As shown below, had you bought at the close every trading day and sold at the next open, you'd be up 25.6% since the start of 2018. Had you instead just bought every open and sold at the close, you'd actually be down 7%. This means that more than 100% of the S&P's gain over this time period has come outside of regular trading hours.

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