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Stock Market Today: December 9th - 13th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Dec 7, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of December 9th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    no economic reports

    • Tuesday

    FOMC begins two-day meeting

    6:00 a.m. NFIB

    8:30 am. Productivity and costs

    • Wednesday

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    10:00 a.m. QSS

    2:00 p.m. Federal budget

    2:00 p.m. FOMC statement

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefs media

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    10:00 a.m. Business inventories
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Wild, Rollercoaster Week Ends Where It Started After Blockbuster Jobs, Return Of "Deal Optimism"
    It was a torrid week which started off ugly, with the S&P off to the worst start to a December since 2008 amid fears the trade deal with China would be pushed beyond the Nov 2020 election. However, "optimism" promptly returned after an "anonymous" Bloomberg article said that the trade deal remains on track, and subsequent comments by Trump and Larry Kudlow suggested that talks are progressing, restoring hope that the next round of tariffs, slated to begin on Dec 15, will be delayed.

    And then there was today's payrolls report, which blew away expectations with a 266K print, 29K above the highest Wall Street forecast, on the back of a surge in manufacturing jobs, which jumped by 54K, the biggest monthly increase since 1998, as striking GM workers returned to work.

    [​IMG]

    As a result, after tumbling on the first two days of the week, the S&P staged a remarkable recovery and closed the week virtually unchanged, while 10Y yield mirrored every move in risk almost tick for tick.

    [​IMG]

    A big reason for the continued impressive rally was Apple stock, which hit a new all time high above $270 as Tim Cook continues to repurchase every share he can find. The stock is now up more than 71% YTD.

    [​IMG]

    There was another reason for the return of the stock rally: this week the Fed's balance sheet rose once again, and as we have shown, in the past 9 weeks ever since the Fed resumed repos and eventually POMO, the stock market is up every single week when the Fed's balance sheet is higher; the only week the S&P was lower was when the Fed's balance sheet also shrank. Surely, it's just a coincidence...

    [​IMG]

    As risk soared, safe havens pulled back, and after sliding as low as 1.70%, the 10Y yield was back in the mid 1.80% range.

    [​IMG]

    Elsewhere, after surging from 12 to 18 at the start of the week, VIX was hammered as usual, and closed the week far below its Tuesday high of 18, if notably above where it started the week.

    [​IMG]

    Those wondering if the brief volatility spike at the start of the week was enough to spark a short squeeze in the record VIX future net short, the answer is no, although for the second consecutive week, VIX net specs did shrink modestly.

    [​IMG]

    The Dollar finally ended its 5-day losing streak, the longest since late October, with a bang, rising 0.15% on the day.

    [​IMG]

    Brent jumped on Friday, after OPEC announced a surprise 500kb/d production cut, which however may be insufficient to prevent an increase in the oil glut. That said, Brent was almost unchanged from last Thursday following last Friday's plunge amid fears Saudi Arabia may overproduce to punish those OPEC nations that violated the production quotas.

    [​IMG]

    While the higher price of oil will be welcome by Saudi Arabia which eagerly awaits the first day of trading of Aramco following the company's record IPO, it remains to be seen if Aramco's $1.7 trillion valuation will be sustainable with Saudi Arabia needing a Brent price over $80 to fund all its budget obligations.

    So after this week's fireworks is it now safe to assume that stocks won't deliver any more major surprises for the balance of 2019? Keep an eye on the Dec 15 tariff deadline: because today's super strong job number merely assured that Trump now thinks he has even more leverage to demand concessions from China, while the Fed's fears that trade war is hurting the economy and thus has to be vigilant to the downside, were blown away.

    Ironically, while retail investors who bought the S&P are doing great, hedge funds are underperforming the S&P for yet another year, and many of them are facing a barrage of redemption requests.

    [​IMG]

    Finally, this was and remains a market where one Trump tweet can mean the difference between a successful and catastrophic year for countless traders, and something tells us the coming three weeks, which see both the culmination of trade discussions and Trump's impeachment, will be anything but quiet.
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Reasons We Still Believe In December
    December 4, 2019

    It has been a rough start to the most wonderful month of them all, with the S&P 500 Index down each of the first two days of December. Don’t stop believing just yet, though.

    Everyone knows December has usually been a good month for stocks, but what happened last year is still fresh in the minds of many investors. The S&P 500 fell 9.1% in December 2018 for the worst December since 1931. That sounds really bad, until you realize stocks fell 30% in September 1931, but we digress.

    One major difference between now and last year is how well the global equities have been performing. Heading into December 2018, the S&P 500 was up 3.2% year to date, but markets outside of the United States were already firmly in the red, with many down double digits.

    “We don’t think stocks are on the verge of another massive December sell off,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “If my Cincinnati Bengals can win a game, anything is possible. However, we are quite encouraged by the overall participation we are seeing from various global stock markets this year versus last year, when the United States was about the only market in the green heading into December.”

    Stocks have also overcome volatile starts to December recently. The S&P 500 was down four days in a row to start 2013 and 2017, but the gauge still managed to gain 2.4% and 1%, respectively, in those years.

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, December has been the second-best month of the year for stocks going back to 1950. It is worth noting that it was the best month of the year before last year’s massive drop. Stocks have historically been strong in pre-election years as well, and December has never been lower two times in a row during a pre-election year. Given stocks fell in December 2015, bulls could be smiling when this month is wrapped up.

    [​IMG]

    Could Impeachment Be Good for Investors?
    [​IMG]
    Impeaching a President with the possibility of removal from office is by no means great for the country. However, it may not be so horrible for the stock market or investors if history is any guide. We first touched on this over two years ago here on the blog and now that much has transpired and the US House of Representatives is now proceeding with drafting articles of impeachment we figured it was a good time to revisit the history (albeit limited) of market behavior during presidential impeachment proceedings. The three charts below really tell the story.

    During the Watergate scandal of Nixon’s second term the market suffered a major bear market from January 1973 to October/December 1974 with the Dow down 45.1%, S&P 500 down 48.2% and NASDAQ down 59.9%. Sure there were other factors that contributed to the bear market such as the Oil Embargo, Arab-Israeli War, collapse of the Bretton Woods system, high inflation and Watergate. However, shortly after Nixon resigned on August 9, 1974 the market reached the secular bear market low on October 3 for S&P and NASDAQ and December 6 for the Dow.

    Leading up to the Clinton investigations and through his subsequent impeachment and the acquittal by the Senate the market was on a tear as one of the biggest bull markets in history raged on. After the 1994 midterm elections when the Republicans took back control of both houses of Congress the market remained on a 45 degree upward trajectory except for a few blips and the shortest bear market on record that lasted 45 days and bottomed on August 31, 1998.

    Clinton was impeached in December 1998 and acquitted in February 1999 as the market continued higher throughout his second term. Sure there were other factors that contributed to the late-1990s bull-run such as the Dotcom Boom, the Information Revolution, millennial fervor and a booming global economy, but Clinton’s personal scandal had little negative impact on markets.

    It remains to be seen of course what will happen with President Trump’s impeachment proceeding and how the world and markets react, but the market continues to march on. If the limited history of impeachment proceedings of a US President in modern times (no offense to our 17th President Andrew Johnson) is any guide, the market has bounced back after the last two impeachment proceedings and was higher a year later. Perhaps it will be better to buy any impeachment dip rather than sell it.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Typical December Trading: Modest Strength Early, Choppy Middle and Solid Gains Late
    [​IMG]
    Historically, the first trading day of December, today, has a slightly bearish bias with S&P 500 advancing 34 times over the last 69 years (since 1950) with an average loss of 0.02%. Tomorrow, the second trading day of December however, has been stronger, up 52.2% of the time since 1950 with an average gain of 0.08% and the third day is better still, up 59.4% of the time.

    Over the more recent 21-year period, December has opened with strength and gains over its first seven trading days before beginning to drift. By mid-month all five indices have surrendered any early-month gains, but shortly thereafter Santa usually visits sending the market higher until the last day of the month and the year when last minute selling, most likely for tax reasons, briefly interrupts the market’s rally.

    Odds Still Favor A Gain for Rest of December Despite Rough Start
    [​IMG]
    Just when it was beginning to look like trade was heading in a positive direction, the wind changed direction again. Yesterday it was steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina and today a deal with China may not happen as soon as previously anticipated. The result was the worst first two trading days of December since last year and the sixth worst start since 1950 for S&P 500. DJIA and NASDAQ are eighth worst since 1950 and 1971, respectively.

    However, historically past weakness in early December (losses over the first two trading days combined) were still followed by average gains for the remainder of the month the majority of the time. DJIA has advanced 74.19% of the time following losses over the first two trading days with an average gain for the remainder of December of 1.39%. S&P 500 was up 67.65% of the time with an average rest of month gain of 0.84%. NASDAQ is modestly softer advancing 61.11% of the time during the remainder of December with an average advance of 0.30%.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 12.6.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for December 6th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.8.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 12.9.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 12.9.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 12.10.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 12.10.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 12.11.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 12.11.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 12.12.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 12.12.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 12.13.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 12.13.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($LULU $COST $THO $AZO $ADBE $AVGO $CIEN $MDB $CHWY $SFIX $AEO $GME $OLLI $TOL $PLCE $UNFI $PLAY $ORCL $HDS $CONN $MTN $JT $LOVE $CMD $PLAB $DBI $ROAD $VRA $CDMO $LQDT $TLRD $TWST $PHR $NDSN $MESA $VERU $DLHC $BLBD $OXM $NX $GNSS $PHX $GTIM)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Strong move by DVAX, its days of being below the 200 ma look to be done for a while.
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    A lot of data this week like retail sales and inflation data, also we have the FED this Wednesday. Don’t know if all of those things will matter that much though with the December 15th tariffs coming up :p
     
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  15. shaw520

    shaw520 Member

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    $CLVS up %11.65
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Nice :D
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  18. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    House finally passes USMCA after Pelosi stalls for 3 years....guess she's worried about next years election.
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    tap, tap, are the markets open today? :p

    quite the chop fest in the indices. can we get some direction? :p
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Mixed news on the tariffs and the trade war again. My guess is if we don’t hear the delay of tariffs by the market hours this Friday, then we will probably see the tariffs kicking in on Sunday :p
     
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