but on a more serious note here, that wuhan virus is starting to get real now. i agree with @stock1234 that there is some big time under reporting going on there. these next couple of weeks will be very telling imo. as for the market, on a more technical aspect, the one big tell for me that signaled that we haven't exactly reached the exhaustion of this up move yet is the fact that once again the /ES futures made its ATH in the ETH (extended trading hours) session last night. the shadowtrader guys are always stressing this, whenever the /ES makes its ATH in the extended hours, that is typically not going to be the end of the auction (up move) in the market profile. what would really get me excited personally, would be if we had some spiky action where the /ES printed the ATH in the RTH (regular trading hours) and we had some real meaningful excess on the top. like 30 ticks or greater on the /ES. and then quickly fail. they sometimes call it the "look above and fail". we have really yet to see anything like that at all. we sometimes see that in the ETH session, but that's not really meaningful excess since it's not happening during the cash market hours. until then, it does seem like these news driven selloffs are always going to be a BTFD. but i even question all of the above when as @stock1234 has so perfectly alluded to, central banks here and abroad continue to backstop every down tick in this market. it is almost becoming comical at this point imho anyway. i know this may sound a little ridiculous, but i do feel that this bull run that started all the way back in early 2009 has been almost completely artificially fed induced. it will be an absolutely amazing sight to see when BTFD no longer works. i also feel like the market really wants to print those large round #'s (30K and 10K on the dj30 and nazzy respectively) before any meaningful dip is to commence. but who knows. that's just my wag (wild ass guess) though
Yeah I think we will need some extreme optimism before the market topping out, those big round numbers definitely would help and I would be very surprised if we don't hit those big round numbers this year
Correction Come Down Thu, Feb 13, 2020 In an earlier post, we detailed the improvements in AAII's weekly sentiment survey. Another sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence also saw a substantial improvement in investors reporting as optimistic this week. The percentage of bullish newsletter writers in the Investors Intelligence survey rose 5.3 percentage points this week to 52.9%. That only brings it back to similar levels to last month, but it was also the largest week over week increase in bullish sentiment since a 5.4 percentage point increase in June of last year. A more notable move in this week's survey was that of respondents looking for a correction. While there have been far higher readings over the past few years, similar to bullish sentiment, last week's reading of just over 33% was the highest share of respondents expecting a correction since October. But as investors reassessed the negative implications of the coronavirus, this has come crashing down falling 5.4 percentage points week-over-week. As shown below, while that 5.4 percentage point decline was far from the largest such decline in the history of the data going back to the late 1990's (a 13.2 percentage point decline in June of 2012 holds that title), there have only been 29 other times that this reading on sentiment had fallen more than 5 percentage points in a single week. The most recent occurrence was in June of last year. The performance of the S&P 500 following similar declines in 'correction' sentiment in the past has been mixed. While the S&P 500 has outperformed versus all other periods one week and 3 months later, one month, six months, and one year later have seen returns more inline or worse than other periods on a median and average basis. In other words, when fewer newsletter writers are looking for a correction or market pullback, better than average returns become slightly less likely.
Good Friday morning traders and welcome to a new day, fresh start! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone in here has a great trading day ahead on this final trading day of the week!
Another 'Corona' Friday Fri, Feb 14, 2020 The S&P 500 has given up early gains and is now trading modestly lower in what has become an all too familiar pattern ever since the coronavirus entered the world stage in January. In fact, of the now seven Fridays so far in 2020, the S&P 500 has traded lower on the day six times. The one exception was the Friday heading into MLK weekend back on 1/17. Ever since then there's been a genuine skittishness on the part of investors to add equity exposure into a 65+ hour window where markets are closed and who knows what type of headlines regarding the coronavirus will come out. The chart below shows the S&P 500's daily percent change in 2020 by weekday with each day of the week color-coded. It's an admittedly small sample size, but Fridays are the only day so far this year where the S&P 500 has been down both on a median basis and more than half of the time. While Fridays have been poor for stocks, Mondays have been the best day of the week with a median gain of 0.70% and gains 80% of the time. It's not often that people actually look forward to Mondays! Wednesdays and Thursdays haven't been as strong for equities, but they have been even more consistent to the upside. The only down Wednesday so far in 2020 was 1/29 (-0.09%), while this past Thursday was the only down Thursday for the S&P 500 since Thanksgiving. Collectively, Tuesdays have been pretty uneventful with a median gain of just 0.01% and positive returns half of the time. On a more bullish note, though, two of the year's three best days were Tuesdays.
