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Stock Market Today: February 11th - 15th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 8, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 11th!


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Diamond Offshore, CNA Financial, Vornado Realty, RingCentral, Molina Healthcare, FMC, Everest Re, Chegg, Kemper

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Occidental Petroleum, Akamai, Groupon, Fossil, Activision Blizzard, Lattice Semiconductor, Shipify, PG&E, Molson Coors, Martin Marietta Materials, Dean Foods, TripAdvisor

    6 a.m. NFIB survey

    10 a.m. JOLTS

    2 p.m. Federal Budget

    6:30 p.m.Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    7:30 p.m. Kansas City Fed President Esther George

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: AIG, Cisco Systems, International Flavors and Fragrances, Yelp, Williams Cos, Pioneer Natural Resources, MGM Resorts, Marathon Oil, Charles River Labs, Gannett, Global Payments, Interpublic, Hilton, Hyatt, Applied Materials

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    8:50 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    8:50 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Coca-Cola, CBS, AstraZeneca, Airbus, Nestle, Ameren, CME Group, Borg Warner, Encana, Duke Energy, TransCanada,Vulcan Materials, GNC Holdings, MGM growth Properties, Sonoco Products, Avon Products, Waste Management, Cognex, TruceCar

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    • Friday

    Earnings: PepsiCo, Deere, Moody's, VF Corp, Choice Hotels, Moody's, Eni, Allianz, Owens and Minor, Baidu,
    Yamana Gold, Boyd Gaming, Newell Brands

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales
    8:30 a.m. Import prices 8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10 a.m. Business inventories 4 p.m. TIC data
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Late-Day Panic-Buying Keeps Stock Win Streak Alive, Bond Yields Tumble To 13-Mo Lows
    World GDP growth expectations are tumbling...

    [​IMG]

    Earnings expectations are plunging...

    [​IMG]

    And still stocks manage to hold gains...

    [​IMG]

    "f*** this"...







    With Chinese stock markets closed for the week as the nation celebrates the lunar new years, Yuan has drifted weaker...

    [​IMG]

    And China Large Cap ETF has also been sliding...

    [​IMG]

    After a good start to the week, European stocks suffered their first weekly loss in six, led by DAX...

    [​IMG]



    What a total farce - a late day panic-bid ensured the weekly win streak remains alive...

    [​IMG]



    Futures show the day best with the incessant bid beginning to lift stocks after Europe closed...and then panic bid into the cash close...

    [​IMG]



    Second Day in a row that a mysterious bidder lifts the S&P to green on the week...

    [​IMG]



    The S&P failed at its 200DMA and then broke back below (and closed below) its 100DMA...

    [​IMG]



    "Most Shorted" stocks actually fell this week as the juice that sent stocks soaring in January has well and truly run out...

    [​IMG]



    Bond yields and stocks have really decoupled...

    [​IMG]



    Credit and equity protection costs surged midweek...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields tumbled on the week (3rd weekly decline in 10Y Yields in a row)...

    [​IMG]



    This is the lowest weekly 10Y Yield close since Jan 2018...

    [​IMG]



    The Dollar index is now up 7 days in a row - the longest winning streak since Dec 2017...

    [​IMG]

    We note that the Chinese are back next week.

    Despite the dollar gains, cryptos had a huge week, led by Litecoin...

    [​IMG]





    WTI had an ugly week, copper outperformed (but faded today) and PMs managed small losses (despite the dollar surge)...

    [​IMG]



    It seems $52 is the magic number of crude...

    [​IMG]



    Gold bounced back above the pre-Powell lows...

    [​IMG]



    Gold gained against the yuan...

    [​IMG]



    Of course, Iron Ore is the big winner, following the Vale disaster..

    [​IMG]



    Finally, there's this...

    [​IMG]

    And this...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Bespoke Report — The Resistance!
    Feb 8, 2019

    The S&P 500 finished the week with a slight gain after posting positive returns early in the week and declines late in the week. Friday saw declines early in the day, but investors really stepped up their buying in the afternoon to fully erase what had been a pretty sizable decline. Friday’s late-day strength was a microcosm of the intraday buying trend we’ve seen all year.

    As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 has rallied in the last hour of trading on 80% of trading days over the last five weeks going back to the start of 2019. Readings of 80% or higher have been rare over the last 10 years dating back to the start of the bull market in 2009.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Industry Groups vs 200-DMA
    Feb 8, 2019

    There’s been a lot of discussion regarding the S&P 500’s inability to trade above its 200-DMA after getting close to that level earlier this week.

    [​IMG]

    Like the index itself, the majority of the Industry Groups that make up the S&P have also been struggling to retake their 200-DMAs. The chart below shows the historical percentage of Industry Groups above the 200-DMA on a daily basis going back to 2014. Back in early January, this reading cratered all the way down to 4.3% when the only group above its 200-DMA was Household and Personal Products. In the month since then, we have seen the percentage slowly climb higher. While the percentage was close to 50% earlier this week, as the market has declined it also pulled back to the current level of 37.5%. In other words, the market still has a lot of work to do before this reading starts to look healthy again.

    [​IMG]

    The table below shows the YTD performance of each of the 24 S&P 500 Industry Groups along with how far each of them is trading from their 200-DMA. This helps give us an idea of how quickly the percentage above their 200-DMA could theoretically rise or fall. For example, four groups are less than 1% below their 200-DMA, so even a moderate rally in the market could easily push the percentage back above 50%. After that, though, nearly a third of all the groups are still at least 4% below their 200-DMAs, so it’s going to take quite a move to get those groups on the right side. Conversely, only two of the nine Industry Groups above their 200-DMA are less than 1.5% above that level, so even if the market sees a modest sell-off, we aren’t likely to see much of a decline in the percentage trading above their 200-DMA.

    So far this year, the rally in equities has been broad-based. The only Industry Group down YTD is Telecom Services, which is down just 1.2%. On the upside, Consumer Durables (13.6%) are leading the gains, but another five Industry Groups are up by over 10%. Not a bad start.

    [​IMG]

    High Yield Stalls
    Feb 8, 2019

    Just like the broader market this week, the rally in high yield credit stalled out a bit. Earlier on Friday, we highlighted the fact that the S&P 500 ran into resistance right at its 200-DMA earlier this week and has been pulling back ever since. In the case of the ETF that tracks the high yield credit market (HYG), we have seen a similar setup. Coming off the lows in December, high yield was a little bit late to the rally, but it quickly made up any lost ground and has since followed the move in the S&P 500 step for step. In fact, this week HYG even managed to briefly trade above its 200-DMA. In this case, though, HYG ran out of momentum pretty much right at the same spot (~$85) where recent bounce attempts also ran out of steam.

    The fact that these rallies in both high yield and the broader equity market are stalling out right at key moving averages is no doubt a focus of technicians, but given the magnitude of the moves off the lows, they had to take a break at some point, so why not at a point where everyone was expecting it. The only test now is whether there are enough bids below current levels to support the market, or will sellers eventually overwhelm the balance.

    [​IMG]

    Where Does the Fed Go From Here?
    Posted by lplresearch

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) just delivered a widely expected, but important monetary policy decision. On January 30, policymakers decided to leave interest rates unchanged, removing the “some further gradual (rate) increases” language used in previous statements and adding a reference to being “patient” when determining future rate adjustments.

    The Fed’s new stance is a swift reversal from its rate expectations offered as recently as four months ago. In September, policymakers’ projections showed the Fed was likely to hike rates three times in 2019. Now, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, markets think the Fed could be done hiking rates, at least through the end of 2019.

    [​IMG]

    If the Fed is done hiking rates for the foreseeable future, are policymakers implying we’ve reached the neutral rate—or the point where policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative to the economy? The Fed’s December dot plot implies two rate hikes in 2019 and hints toward a long-term (neutral) rate around current levels, but we expect policymakers to adjust their expectations at the Fed’s next dot-plot update in March. Still, policymakers may keep projections for a few more rate hikes this cycle to give the Fed some wiggle room to tighten policy beyond neutral if inflation rises too quickly.

    “We think the U.S. economy could digest future gradual rate hikes, based on solid economic conditions,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “However, the rate the economy can take is likely higher than equity markets are willing to embrace.”

    Right now, we expect to see one or two more hikes this economic cycle, and not necessarily in 2019, if inflationary pressures build too quickly or other signs of excess appear. We haven’t seen evidence of these two things happening, nor have we seen any signs of a deflationary threat, so we expect the Fed to continue its pause in the near term.

    February Expiration Week: S&P 500 Up 11 of Last 13
    [​IMG]
    February’s option expiration day has been down more often than not over the past 25 years with an average loss of 0.25% for S&P 500. Despite a bumpy finish, expiration week as a whole has fared better, but nets an average gain of just 0.39% on the S&P 500 since 1994 with 16 of 25 winning weeks. More recently, S&P 500 has advanced in eleven of the last thirteen options expiration weeks. The week after, has been down 13 of the last 25 years. DJIA and NASDAQ have similar patterns over the same timeframe.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Full Year Gains in 10 of the Last 11 Pre-Election Years with Positive January Indicator Trifecta
    [​IMG]
    From recent posts and the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac we know that pre-election years have historically been the best year of the four-year-presidential cycle and a positive January Trifecta has also been historically bullish for the market. The impact of a positive January Trifecta in pre-election is not as powerful as other years of the cycle because pre-election years are typically quite positive however, the Trifecta does raise the ceiling. In the following chart of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the one-year seasonal patterns for “All Years,” “Pre-Election Years,” “Trifecta Pre-Election Years” and 2019 have been plotted. Declines in October are the result of the crash in 1987.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Typical February Trading: Lukewarm Month, Greatest Strength Ahead Mid-Month
    [​IMG]
    After one of the best January market performances in decades, expectations could be running high for continued gains in February. However, February historically been a rather tepid month. Since 1950, S&P 500 has averaged a measly 0.04%. Over the last 21-year period S&P 500 average performance has declined to a loss of 0.2% in February. February’s first trading day has historically been good and trading days eight, nine, ten and eleven have been solid long opportunities. Outside of these five days, the balance of February has been lacking.

    Dow 1st to climb over the 200 day SMA
    dragonflycap:

    [​IMG]
    Major market indexes had a horrible December, culminating in a final thrust lower on Christmas Eve, some holiday gift. But when we woke up on Boxing Day things had changed. That started a run higher in equities that continues to today. Into its 6th week, most market indexes are still under their 200 day SMA though. It was a deep cut.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the one exception. It was the first index to push over its 200 day SMA, closing above it Friday and continuing higher Monday. This is a good first step in a recovery, but it is still far short of making a higher high to claim a recovery.
    [​IMG]
    The chart above shows the path both down and up, the familiar “V” shaped recovery we saw in 2016. It also shows the prospects are good for more upside in the DJIA. The Bollinger Bands® are pointing higher. The momentum indicators are rising and bullish. The RSI is strong in the bullish zone with room to continue up and the MACD is positive and moving higher. A good start, but it needs to move over 26,000 before we can move back from the edge of our seats.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.8.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for February 8th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.10.19 - Key Resistance but Bulls Unfazed
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.11.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 2.11.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.12.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.12.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.13.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.13.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.14.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.14.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.15.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.15.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($NVDA $CGC $SHOP $ATVI $TWLO $GOOS $UAA $AMAT $CSCO $TEVA $KO $L $KMPR $CTL $GRPN $CNA $MPAA $NGL $QSR $CHGG $DO $AVYA $WM $ANET $CYBR $PEP $EXEL $NSP $YELP $MCY $GOLD $MRO $RNG $DGX $NTAP $ICBK $DE $NRZ $YETI $JLL $MOH $AKAM $OHI)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]
     
    #12 bigbear0083, Feb 11, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day & week ahead!
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup – Drifting Higher to Start the Week
    Feb 11, 2019

    Futures have been drifting up all morning and the S&P 500 is currently on pace to open about 40 basis points higher. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is on pace for its 8th straight day of gains as there hasn’t been a down day for the greenback since the Fed’s pivot to a more dovish stance. Chinese equities also returned from the New Year’s holiday with strong gains.

    Stocks are set to open in the green this morning, but as anyone following things has no doubt noticed this year, the real action for investors has been during the last hour of trading. The chart below shows the rolling 25-day percentage of days where the S&P 500 was positive in the last hour of the trading day. As of Friday’s close, the percentage ticked up to 80%, which is a level not seen since early 2017. Since 2009, the 80% level is a level that has only been reached or exceeded a few times.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    DIS is starting to take a hit.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Late Day Rallies
    Feb 11, 2019

    If we could only use one characteristic to describe equity market performance so far in 2019, late day strength may be the most applicable. Heading into Monday, the S&P 500 had been up in the final hour of trading for seven straight days, and over the prior five weeks, the last hour of trading saw positive returns 90% of the time! That kind of late day strength doesn’t occur all that often.

    Ever since the S&P 500’s most recent low on December 24th, the intraday trading characteristics of the market have really shifted. The first chart below shows the S&P 500’s average hourly performance during the period from the 9/20/18 high through 12/24. The only time period of the day that saw any strength was the opening half hour. From 10 AM on, though, every other hour of the trading day averaged a decline, with the most weakness coming from 10 AM through 1 PM. The last hour of the trading day wasn’t particularly strong with an average decline of 0.06%.

    [​IMG]

    In the period since Christmas Eve, the intraday characteristics of the trading day have been completely upended. During this period, the weakest part of the trading day has been the opening half hour (formerly the strongest), while the strongest part of the trading day has been the last hour with an average change of 0.22%. Behind the last hour of the trading day, the next strongest hourly interval has been the period from 11 – 12, which has averaged a gain of 0.19%. Combined, these two hours of the trading day have accounted for 86% of the S&P 500’s gains since the Christmas Eve low. Moral of the story? If you are a bull these days, don’t take an early lunch and don’t try and cut out early to beat the traffic home!

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    pretty directionless market today...

    with earnings season slowly coming to a close soon ... i'm not really sure what'll get things moving decisively in either direction from here.

    i guess we're in a holding pattern until the end of this week where we'll get news of the gov't shutdown status (i believe the deadline is set for this friday night if i'm not mistaken?) in addition, we'll get the latest on the china trade news on march 1st i think?

    so i guess until then we're just going to be chopping it up pretty good :p
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah I think you are correct Cy, the deadline for another shutdown is this Friday and looks like we will have another shutdown as of now, I don’t think the market will care much though :p

    The trade talk definitely will begin to dominate the market later this month and early next month. If they kick the can down a little bit and delay raising the tariffs to 25%, then it should be positive for the market :D
     
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  19. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Check out HTZ and CAR today - Holy smokes those are some volatile charts!
     
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  20. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    I have felt like this market is getting heavy for a while now. I believe we may get another weak push, but a typical pull or maybe even a selloff is due after this earnings season. imo weak earnings seasons always sell off after it's completely over.
     
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