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Stock Market Today: February 17th - 21st, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of February 17th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    President’s Day holiday
    Markets closed

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Walmart, Medtronic, Advance Auto Parts, 10X Genomics, Groupon, Fluor, Choice Hotels, Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, Concho Resources, Agilent, American Water Works

    8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    2:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Analog Devices, Dish Network, Zillow, Boston Beer, Ovintiv, Kaiser Aluminum, Sturm Roger, Cimarex Energy, Noble, Williams Cos, Avis Budget, Hyatt, Pioneer Natural Resources, Petrobras, Mosaic

    8:10 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    10:00 a.m. QSS

    11:45 a.m. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari

    1:30 p.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan

    2:00 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes

    4:30 p.m. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

    • Thursday

    Earnings: ViacomCBS, Domino’s Pizza, Norwegian Cruide Lines, Hormel Foods, American Electric Power, HollyFrontier, Southern Co, Dropbox, Six Flags, Visteon, Tenneco, Morningstar, Pilgrim’s Pride, First Solar, Eldorado Gold, Texas Roadhouse, Boyd Gaming, Sprouts Farmers Market

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    1:20 p.m. Richmond Fed’s Barkin

    • Friday

    Earnings: Deere, Cinemark, Royal Bank of Canada, Allianz, Pinnacle West

    9:35 a.m. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    10:15 a.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

    1:30 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As 'Quarantative Easing' Hopes Send Stocks Soaring
    [​IMG]

    And so did global stocks...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Spot The Odd One Out!

    And while stocks surged, bonds, commodities, yuan, and cryptos are all ignoring the equity market's "risk-on" panic-bid...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    "It's a mad mad world"...





    Chinese stock market indices were all higher on the week but have largely gone nowhere for the last three days...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European markets were all higher on the week (despite a total bloodbath in economic data)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    US market were mostly higher with Trannies the laggards and Nasdaq the major winners...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Today's closing ramp saw machines lift the dow back to its VWAP...

    [​IMG]





    Source: Bloomberg

    Defensive stocks outperformed cyclicals this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields tumbled today as the long bond was bid back to green on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y ended the week where it started, not buying the hype from stocks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve is stuck right at the inversion line...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar was flat on the week (after its biggest weekly rise since Aug 2018 last week)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos exploded higher this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin holding firm above $10,000...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Ethereum surged back above $275 - to its highest in 7 months...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And while crude surged on the week (OPEC hopes), gold was also safe-haven bid...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    And while oil was also positive, it is once again struggling at resistance...

    [​IMG]



    As global negative-yielding debt resurges once again on virus fears, so the relative attractiveness of gold and crypto are renewed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, this is just funny shit...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Global shipping data and Dr.Copper both think it's about to hit the fan and is not pricing in any v-shaped recovery anytime soon...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And for anyone who still thinks China has it all under control!!!

    [​IMG]
    曾錚 Jennifer [email protected]



    Whatever you have done, or whoever you are , do you deserve being treated like this? One of the many scenes in #China during #CoronavirusOutbreak 一场#武汉肺炎 疫情,将多少的丑陋展现在世人眼前。#新冠肺炎 #全民反抗 #全民自救 #全民互救


    [​IMG]


    337

    3:43 PM - Feb 14, 2020
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    356 people are talking about this
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    February Expiration Week: S&P 500 Up 12 of Last 14
    [​IMG]
    February’s option expiration day has been down more often than not over the past 26 years with an average loss of 0.20% for S&P 500. Despite a bumpy finish, expiration week as a whole has fared better, but nets an average gain of just 0.47% on the S&P 500 since 1994 with 17 of 26 winning weeks. More recently, S&P 500 has advanced in twelve of the last fourteen options expiration weeks. The week after, has been down 13 of the last 26 years. DJIA and NASDAQ have similar patterns over the same timeframe.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Trading After Presidents’ Day Weekend Still Weak
    [​IMG]
    Yesterday’s post, showed improvement the two days before Presidents’ Day Weekend the past 10 years. But the two days after still display a lot of red. Since 1990 Tuesday after Presidents’ Day has been strongest for the S&P 500 with 18 gains and 12 losses for median gain of 0.14% and an average loss of –0.22%. DJIA also has more gains than losses on the Tuesday after, but NASDAQ is net loser down 18 of 30 years with and average loss of –0.50% and a median loss of –0.21%.

    Wednesday is all red for all three major averages. NASDAQ and S&P 500 have more losses, but DJIA has greater magnitude of decline. On the Wednesday after the Presidents’ Day holiday DJIA is down 16 of 30 with an average loss of –0.08% and a median decline of –0.16%. S&P 500 is down 18 of 30, average –0.04%, median –0.11% and NASDAQ is down 17 of 30, average –0.04%, median –0.14%.

    [​IMG]


    Closer Look At February

    A late month selloff in January saw the S&P 500 Index close marginally lower for the month. But stocks have taken off in February, with the S&P 500 up nearly 4% this month, as US economic data remains strong and fears over the worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus appear overblown.

    Historically, February has been a month when stocks tend to take a bit of a break. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 has been flat, on average, during the second month of an election year. What is most interesting, though, is how weak October has been historically leading up to presidential elections, yet how strong stocks have been in November and December as political uncertainty clears following elections.

    [​IMG]

    Maybe the big gains so far this month shouldn’t be a total surprise? “Yes, February historically has been a troublesome month for stocks,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yet over the past decade, no month has seen better returns.” In fact, the S&P 500 has gained 2.34% on average in February over the past decade, compared with the second best month of October’s gain of 2.29%.

    [​IMG]

    A Record Pace of Records
    Wed, Feb 12, 2020

    Le'ts preface this with the fact that it's still early in the year and the rest of the year is unlikely to closely follow the path we have seen so far, but the S&P 500 is currently on pace for its 11th record closing high this year. While we're just 29 trading days into the year, in the post-WWII period, 2020 already ranks as the 33rd highest number of record closing highs for the S&P 500 in a given year (out of 76). What's even more notable, though, is that at the current pace the S&P 500 would have 96 record closes this year, which would dwarf the total from every other year. For reference, the highest number of record closing highs in a given year was 77 in 1995, and there are only four other years (1961, 1964, 2014, and 2017) where there were more than 50 record closes.

    [​IMG]

    US Continues to Gain Share of World Market Cap
    Wed, Feb 12, 2020

    The United States dominates the rest of the world in terms of its share of total equity market capitalization. Currently, US stocks make up over 40% of global equities' total market cap. No other country comes even close to this size with the next largest country being China with just 8.47% and then Japan with 7.09%. Hong Kong is the only other individual county with a share larger than 5%. While France is the largest European Union country stock market in terms of the percentage of world market cap at only 3%, the total share of all EU countries shown sits at over 10%. Former EU member, the United Kingdon, is also one of the larger countries but has consistently lost share over the past decade. So far this year it has lost another 0.2%.

    One interesting change that we noted at the end of last year has been the massive increase in Saudi Arabia's share thanks to one of the world's largest companies, Saudi Aramco, hitting public markets. Although it has led to a massive jump over the long run, since the start of the year Saudi Arabia's share of market cap has fallen 14 bps likely due to Saudi Aramco being a one-way trade lower off of its highs that were put in place only a few days after its IPO. Meanwhile, the US has taken another 1.17% of the world's market cap in 2020 alone.

    [​IMG]

    While there are several individual countries that are actually outperforming the US so far in 2020, generally speaking, the US has outperformed the rest of the world which is why the US has taken more market cap this year. Whereas the S&P 500 was up 3.93% YTD as of yesterday's close, MSCI's World Index excluding the US is just about flat. That trend of US outperformance has been in place for much of the past year well before the coronavirus hit Asia in December.

    [​IMG]

    Another interesting country to note is China. 2020 has been off to a rocky start thanks to the coronavirus. This had sent the country's share of global market cap plummeting down to ~8% on February 3rd. That was its lowest level since February of last year. But as this month has progressed and the situation surrounding the virus has improved, China has regained some of those losses and is now sitting with a larger share of world market cap than it ended 2019 with.

    [​IMG]

    Things Are Looking Up

    Stocks had their best week in 8 months last week, as the worst of the coronavirus fears subsided and the US economy showed some impressive resolve. Last, the LPL Strategists discuss why international stocks could finally be close to having their time in the sun after lagging the US for much of the past decade.

    DEVELOPED MARKETS ARE LOOKING BETTER
    Developed markets have lagged the US for more than 10 years now. Although we aren’t ready to fully invest in these areas, we are starting to see signs to warm up to international equites. As the LPL Strategists discuss, values are historically cheap relative to the US, global growth is stabilizing, growth leadership my start to weaken, and the US dollar should be pressured lower. Should any of those four reasons begin to take place, it could create a nice tailwind for international stocks.

    THE LATEST ON THE CORONAVIRUS
    Equity markets bounced nicely last week, as fears over the coronavirus appear to be calming. The loss of lives is devastating, but markets are focusing on this fast spreading, yet low death rate of this virus versus other dangerous outbreaks. The LPL Strategists noted that China could very well see flat GDP growth in Q1, a big pick up later in 2020 could be likely. Additionally, don’t forget that the US economy actually got stronger during the SARS outbreak in 2003.

    SOME MORE GOOD NEWS
    Further supporting stocks last week was a trio of solid economic data in the US. The jobs report in January showed a very solid 225,000 jobs created, well above expectations. Additionally, much better than expected manufacturing data and solid services data show an economy that continues to defy the naysayers. Last, productivity in Q4 bounced and for the year it was the highest nonfarm productivity since 2010.

    [​IMG]

    Another "Delay" in the Value Trade
    Wed, Feb 12, 2020

    How many times over the last few years have you heard something to the tune of "The time for value stocks to outperform is now." Well, we're still waiting. The chart below shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 Value Index versus the S&P 500 Growth Index going back to 1995. A quick warning: if you have a sensitive stomach you may want to skip the chart altogether.

    [​IMG]

    From 1995 right up to the bull market peak in 2000, value stocks couldn't catch a break as they steadily underperformed growth stocks. Those were the days when Energy as a sector was 'dead' and investors couldn't get enough of tech IPOs with trendy sounding names. The low for value stocks on a relative basis came on 3/27/00, and from there the reversal was swift. By April of 2001, value stocks had regained nearly all of the ground they lost relative to growth during the late 1990s. Unfortunately for investors in both types of strategies, the outperformance in value wasn't the result of a monster rally, but instead a massive decline in growth stocks.

    From April 2001 through late 2002, value stocks underperformed again as the Worldcom and Enron accounting scandals cast a pall over sectors like Telecom Services and Utilities - two sectors traditionally comprised predominantly by value stocks. As the dust settled on those two scandals, though, and the economy stabilized, value stocks rallied again as Energy, Financials, and Materials stocks boomed.

    As the Financial sector began to unravel in 2007 and oil prices peaked in 2008, value stocks once again cratered relative to growth. Growth has maintained its lead over value ever since. Outside of some periods where value stocks briefly popped and strategist after strategist came out and said this time the rally is for real, growth stocks have left value stocks in the dust. Just last year, the underperformance of value stocks marked a major milestone as they took out their lows in relative strength versus growth stocks. While the S&P 500 Value Index saw a modest bounce towards the end of last year, any momentum it had has quickly been erased in 2020 as the ratio between it and the S&P 500 Growth index is now at fresh lows.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.14.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for February 14th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.16.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 2.17.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENT'S DAY.)

    Monday 2.17.20 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF PRESIDENT'S DAY.)

    Tuesday 2.18.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 2.18.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.19.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 2.19.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.20.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 2.20.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.21.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 2.21.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($WMT $MDT $AAP $DPZ $ENPH $INMD $TRU $WAB $AEIS $WING $BHC $VMC $GRMN $LDOS $TSEM $ECL $ALLE $GRPN $CEVA $OLED $DBX $NXRT $BLMN $ATH $WIX $FANG $CEQP $ADI $FLR $ZS $VG $SIX $A $CHH $SEDG $NVTA $IMAX $AG $EXPD $FSLR $STNG $AKS)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Just a reminder in here for everyone that the market is closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

    Here is the Globex futures market hours for Sunday thru Tuesday.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Tuesday morning traders and welcome to a new week, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading week ahead! :)
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    market at the lod here, it will be interesting to see if this is actually going to be the start of something more meaningful on the downside, or if it will end up being yet another BTFD to new ATHs yet again... :rolleyes:

    this one admittedly does actually look kinda promising on the downside, due to the aapl warning news that we got last night, and with COVID-19 getting worse by the day it seems. could this actually be the "black swan event" for the market that i always talk about? :p

    anyway, as we have seen time and time and time again, the FED always seems to come to the rescue of the market when it seems like it's in some stress, and i'm just not 100% sold if we're not going to see the FED step in here again and try to backstop this market somehow, as we have seen an umpteenth amount of times in the past.

    they always seem to have a trick up their sleeves, and just as quickly as i think this market is ready to correct nicely, it rips faces off back to the upside due to something they did.

    we shall see.

    this market sure is overdue/ripe for a nice large correction though. :D

    i never wish anything bad for anyone, but i'd be lying if i didn't say that i'm kinda actually rooting for some crashy/panicky type action in this market lol. :p

    doubt we'll see that though....
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Still a pretty resilient market, I personally expected the market to drop more than it is now after the warning by AAPL :eek:
     
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  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    SPCE finally running out of steam.
    AVXL is going to be making some noise, imo.
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    NASDAQ now in green :eek:
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    i guess nazzy 10k is still on :D

    you said it best, this market is so resilient :p
     
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    here is what the average month of feb. looks like for the spx going back to 1950.

    [​IMG]

    interestingly enough, over the past 10 years no month has performed better for the market than this month.

    here is what the average feb. has looked like for the spx over the past decade.

    [​IMG]
     
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