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Stock Market Today: February 18th - 22nd, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 15, 2019.

  1. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    pretty quiet on the options front today - not seeing anything popping out at me so far.
     
    Steven_Burt and stock1234 like this.
  2. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Guess we aren't done going higher unless all of the sudden we hear some bad news on the potential trade deal :p
     
    Steven_Burt and bigbear0083 like this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    30 Stocks Furthest Above and Below 50-DMAs
    Feb 19, 2019

    As the S&P 500 continues to rally off of its Christmas Eve low, many stocks have extended well past their 50-day moving averages. Below is a list of the 30 S&P 500 stocks that are trading the furthest above their 50-DMAs. At the top of the list is Coty (COTY) which currently sits 44.18% above its 50-DMA. Before reporting earnings on February 8th, the stock actually sat just below its moving average, but a strong report rocketed the stock well above its 50 and 200-day. While no other stocks are quite as overextended as COTY, there are currently nine that sit more than 20% above their 50-DMAs. Many of these saw a strong Q4 earnings report, like Xilinx (XLNX) which reported a triple play and gapped up 9.55% in reaction to the news. Other notables on the list of most extended stocks include Chipotle (CMG), Electronic Arts (EA), Advanced Micro (AMD), Boeing (BA), Netflix (NFLX), and General Electric (GE).

    [​IMG]

    While these stocks have performed unbelievably lately, they are now reaching extremely overbought levels as shown through our popular Trend Analyzer tool. A couple like COTY and ANET have extended so far above their 50-DMAs that they are basically off the chart. As a result of these readings, many of these stocks have poor timing ratings as they are increasingly overdue for some downside mean reversion.

    [​IMG]

    At the other end of the spectrum, below we show the 30 S&P 500 stocks that are furthest below their 50-DMAs. Newell Brands (NWL) is the leader of the group at 16.31% below. NWL plummeted over 9% on Friday after lowering guidance, whereas before reporting it comfortably sat above its 50-DMA. It has continued to decline today. The next stock that is far below its 50-DMA is Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) which also saw a sour response to earnings a couple weeks ago. This stock is another that actually sat above its 50-DMA before its earnings report was released. A similar name, Activision Blizzard (ATVI), joins TTWO on this list despite their peer EA being one of the most elevated stocks.

    Note that there is just one stock in the S&P 500 that is more than 10% below its 50-day, while there are 30+ that are more than 15% above their 50-days!

    [​IMG]
     
    Steven_Burt likes this.
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  5. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    JNUG strong again in the pre-market.
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Wednesday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup – All Quiet Ahead of FOMC Minutes
    Feb 20, 2019

    Earnings season just ended yesterday, but things are already pretty quiet in terms of news today, and the futures reflect that with levels suggesting just a slightly negative open. Besides weekly mortgage applications which were released earlier, the only release of importance today is the FOMC Minutes from the January meeting.

    On the subject of today’s FOMC Minutes, it will be interesting to read about the Committee’s discussion and the ultimate decision to pivot on rate policy. In terms of the market’s expectations for future rate policy this year, it is hard to believe that market pricing for a rate cut between now and the December meeting is still significantly higher than the odds of a hike. At just a 1% probability, market expectations for a rate hike are pretty much non-existent.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Southwest Airlines warns that the government shutdown was worse than anticipated on airlines.
     
  9. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Sold my JNUG options at 1.36 this morning - hit my profit limit of 300%. Still holding CRC - been pretty stagnant last couple days.

    Checking my options scanner - will be back if I find anything.
     
  10. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Just entered into the CI 18-Apr-19 210 Call @ 1.99 for 3 contracts. I flagged this on 2/15/2019 - the stock shot up and missed the boat. original buyer of 1,500 contracts @ 2.20 for only 330,000. Lets see how this works out.
     
  11. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Is there a delay in the meeting minutes today due to the snow/ice-maggedon. I thought I heard that somewhere... maybe on here?
     
  12. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2019 - 22:13
    ADVISORY: FOMC Minutes Lockup Cancelled; Release Still 2pm ET




    WASHINGTON (MNI) - Due to the Federal Government closure Wednesday in response to a major snow storm, the Federal Reserve will be also closed and the lockup to release the FOMC minutes will be cancelled. The minutes will still be released at 2:00 PM ET online.

    As a result, there will be no AF release for the minutes. Details of the minutes will be reported on other MNI platforms as soon as possible after the release time, but there will be some delay.

    Here is the text of the Federal Reserve's statement on their Twitter page:

    Federal Reserve Board offices in Washington, D.C. are closed due to inclement weather. The Federal Open Market Committee minutes will be released as scheduled at 2:00 p.m. EST Daily and weekly statistical releases will be published on the first business day that Federal Reserve Board offices in the Washington, D.C. area reopen

    --MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: [email protected]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Let’s see if the FED Minutes in about 7 minutes will be a market moving event :D
     
  14. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Edit: that was the January 30th report, sorry.
     
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  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Reaction pretty mild after the minutes for stocks. Dollar bouncing and gold pulling back a little though
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Treasury Yields Keep Drifting Lower
    Feb 20, 2019

    Despite continuing calls for a move higher in rates, US Treasury yields have been flat to lower across the curve recently. Let’s start with the short end of the curve. While you could practically set your watch to the pace of rising yields on the 3-month UST for most of 2018, the rise came to a halt late in Q4 as economic data slowed and the equity market declined. Last month’s pivot by the FOMC to pause its rate hiking cycle has only reinforced that trend. For now, 2.5% should be a ceiling.

    [​IMG]

    At the long end of the curve, yields have not only not been rising, but they’ve also been falling. When equity markets bottomed in late 2018, the yield on the 10-year briefly started rising again, but that move higher in yields came to a halt just shy of 2.8%, which had formerly been a support level. As things stand now, the 10-year yield is at 2.65% and not far from one-year lows.

    [​IMG]

    With lower yields at the longer end of the curve, the yield curve (10-year minus 3-month yield) has been flattening dramatically again. At today’s level, the yield curve is barely legal to drink and outside that brief period at the end of last year is at its lowest levels in over a decade. What will it take to get the curve steepening again?

    [​IMG]
     
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Fed expects to halt balance sheet reduction by the end of the year, minutes say

    • Minutes from the January Federal Reserve meeting reiterate the central bank's new "patient" policy stance.
    • The meeting summary also features extensive discussion on the Fed's impact on markets.
    • Officials said they expect to keep rates steady for now but left room for hikes later if conditions improve.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/the-fed-just-released-minutes-from-its-market-moving-meeting.
     
  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    If they have to stop the balance sheet reduction by end of the year, then I guess we will see a big FED balance sheet pretty much forever :p
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    kind of interesting stat i came across this afternoon.

    so more than 90% of spx components are above their 50ma, which is historically a high number.

    interestingly, future returns are pretty strong when we've seen this rare overbought signal.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Thanks to the FED I guess it is risk on for equities now. If we don't get any bad news on trade deal with China then pretty likely we will see a new ATH :p
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.

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