Stock Market Today: February 20th - 24th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Feb 17, 2017.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Just a reminder in here: FOMC Minutes are released @ 2pm eastern time this afternoon.
     
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  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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  4. T0rm3nted

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  5. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Right now it seems like the market is not anticipating a rate hike next month. Yields and the dollar moved lower after the Minutes
     
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  6. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    We'll see if they talk it up. I'm hearing that the market is pricing the probability too low. Personally I don't think they'll do it next month.
     
  7. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    I think this daily doji is going to give us a short term reversal.

    Or maybe I'm just hopeful that will happen.
     
  8. Stockaholic

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    I know nobody in here really cares about the DJ30, but it's worth noting that today marked the 9th consecutive up for that index. And not only 9 up days in a row, but 9 up days that were also ATH closes. That's the first time we've seen anything like that since 1987. Additionally, this is the longest winning streak for the DJ30 since we did 9 a in-a-row last July. If the DJ30 extends its streak to 10 tomorrow then that'll be the longest since March of '13. And anything beyond that then we'd be looking at the longest streak in 25 years.

    Here are some of the notable DJ30 winning streaks of 8 days or longer.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Stockaholic

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    Also worth noting in here that when the month of January and February are both up like it seems like 2017 will end up being, the annual total return on the spx hasn't been down since 1937.
     
  10. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    Any idea how much up?

    I mean, if you're up for 2 months in a row, you've got some falling to do before you're down on the year.

    So, if the average Jan and Feb up is 5% let's say, is the market up more than 5% on the year usually, or flat to those numbers, or below that?

    I can see the market falling 10% after an up Jan and Feb and recovering to up for the year, for example. But a lot of People wouldn't feel too good about that.
     
  11. Stockaholic

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    I'll do some digging around and see if I can find those figures for you @Baggi truthfully I'm not actually sure on the Jan/Feb up months = how much more higher after that stats but I'll look into it...

    Putting that one aside though, I can tell you that a positive January Trifecta (which we did end up having this year) which was basically having an up SCR (Santa Claus Rally) an up FFD (First Five trading day of the new year) and an up full month of January has historically been extremely powerful for the markets for the full year. It was even MORE powerful during post-election years.

    Here is the chart courtesy of Stock Trader's Almanac that shows the current YTD (red line); all of the positive January Trifecta's (black line), all post-election years (blue line), and all the positive January trifecta's in a post-election year (green line) since 1950. The January Trifecta Positive has been pretty accurate at calling the full year.

    [​IMG]

    I'm not actually saying we're going to see a 20%+ full year for the SPX this year as the chart above might suggest. But, just simply pointing it out. It's just something to keep in mind is all. I do think this market is hella overdue for a nice healthy pullback of at least -10% ... I don't think we'll go the entire year w/o a meaningful pullback. The last time something like that happened was in 1995 I believe it was when the SPX didn't even endure a -4% or less pullback from the highs.

    And speaking of pullbacks ... the SPX still hasn't had a -1% or greater down day in about 90 trading days now. If this exceeds 105 I think it was, then that would take us to the longest non -1% day since the 1970s ... needless to say we are hugely overdue for this pullback.
     
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    If they really want to hike next month then they better talk it up soon :D Don't think they would go unless the odds go up to at least 50%.
     
  13. Baggi

    Baggi Active Member

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    How many trifectas is that and how many of those happened during a Republican presidency?

    I think it's really hard to look historical like that. Because the stock market is much different now. The internet has allowed a much larger number of people to get involved. And you can get involved for very little money. Buying and selling.

    In years passed, it was like the difference between travel now and travel 100 years ago. And that's just 20-25 years of the stock market.

    Think about it. Our parents and grandparents had to buy physical pieces of paper with the number of stock owned on it.

    Now we just deal in electronic digits.
     
  14. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    while times have changed, human emotion and tendencies always remain the same imo.
     
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  15. Stockaholic

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  16. Stockaholic

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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Long way to go before the close, but the Dow could be on track to close green again despite the weaknesses in other indexes :eek:
     
  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Industrial stocks and copper prices are down today :eek:
     
  19. Stockaholic

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  20. Stockaholic

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    Yep, looks like 10 in a row for the DJ30. Longest win streak since 2013. If it's higher again tomorrow then we're looking at the longest up streak since 1992.
     

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