Good Wednesday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead today.
Morning Lineup – Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Feb 27, 2019 Just like the opening days of the NCAA basketball tournament, today is the kind of day when it pays to have more than one TV or at the very least, a DVR. With President Trump meeting Kim Jong Un, Fed Chair Powell set to resume testimony on Capitol Hill, and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen also set to testify, who needs Netflix? Not only that, but there’s also a healthy slug of economic data to digest. Stocks are poised to open lower but since declines early in the European session, S&P 500 futures have edged a bit higher and are currently pointing to a decline of just about 30 bps at the open. The dollar is down for the fourth day in a row and 8th of the last 10 days. Software had been a leading area of the market leading up to the September highs, and the sector pulled back just as much as the broader market during the Q4 sell-off. The rally back, though, has been much stronger. Just yesterday, the group traded within two points of its all-time high from 2018. This particular group isn’t the same as the Software and Services group, which contains many of the highest fliers in the sector, but instead, it is made up of the major players in the space including Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM), etc. Nevertheless, if this group is trading back at new highs, it bodes well for the overall growth trade and broader market in general. Meanwhile, semis continue to hold up as well. While not as strong as the software group, it continues to outperform as it attempts to remain above its downtrend from the highs in the first half of 2018.
Options Alert: BHF 5/17/2019 45 CALL QTY - 10000 as the ask price of 1.2 OI was 290 at the time. It is a $1.2M option buy.
Pretty flat market Looks like gold and bonds are weak today. Semiconductors also down over 1%. The SPX has tough time of staying above of the 2800 level, I am still leaning bullish though and think we will go higher after some consolidation. We will see
yeah i'm thinking the same as well @stock1234 i believe this is probably the best scenario here for the bull case as we're essentially correcting through time, and not pulling back much at all. a "pause" as some might call it. i think it was @Ken34 who brought this up in here the other day, but if we just put in some sideways action between this 2800 level and the 200ma would be somewhat encouraging. knock enough times on heaven's door (aka, 2800) and it will bust. maybe need some catalyst to blast through with conviction though...just not sure what that might be. perhaps the trade deal (when it becomes "fact") will be that catalyst?
Yeah a trade deal when it becomes fact could be the catalyst, or maybe when the FED announces the pause of their balance sheet deduction As long as earnings don't fall apart and the FED remains dovish, I feel like this market probably would go higher
whelp, amazingly enough tomorrow we close the books on the month of feb. its looking very likely that feb. will end green, so that will mean that we'll have ended both jan. and feb. in the green for only the 27th time since 1950. i believe i posted this chart in here the other day but maybe worth a re-post again. interesting fact is that out of those 27 times that the spx was green in both jan. and feb. the final 10 months of the year went on to gain 25 times. the average return in those final 10 months was just over 12% vs. the average return of 7.6%. this year could be # 28
got held up in a meeting from 3:30-4:30 - don't they know I need to watch the close Options Alert: (I will be looking to enter this tomorrow if it doesn't get away from me from the open) CMI 4/18/2019 165 CALL QTY - 14,497 1.1 mid (closer to ask) OI was 272 at time of purchase meaning this is a new $1,594,670 position.
CRC looks to have had a good earnings report based on the reaction AH. up 5.32% right now. Still holding 3 contracts from $1.30 from observing a "whale" option buyer a couple weeks ago. I noticed that their QTY was still in the OI so they did not exercise or sell before earnings... somebody knew something. They are up over 100% from their million dollar position - looking for even more tomorrow!
Good Thursday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead on this final trading day of February.
Morning Lineup – No Deal! Feb 28, 2019 Even with President Trump leaving Hanoi with no deal, futures are little fazed this morning as the focus is on economic data including GDP, Jobless Claims, and Chicago PMI. With the S&P 500 stalling out just below the 2,800 level in recent days, we wanted to provide a quick update on where the market and individual stocks within the S&P 500 stand relative to their 52-week highs. The chart below shows how far every stock in the S&P 500 closed yesterday versus their 52-week high. While the S&P 500 is just over 5% from its September high, individual stocks in the index are down an average of 14.2% from their respective highs. That may sound like a pretty wide divergence, but it’s actually pretty common as not all stocks hit new highs in unison with the market. In fact, even when breadth is very positive, it’s rare that even 25% of stocks in the index will hit 52-week highs on the same day. As things stand now, 43 stocks in the S&P 500 closed within 1% of a 52-week high yesterday while 150 closed within 5%.
Sentiment extremes always show up at market reversals. 0% bullish sentiment marked the exact low and the 100% bullish sentiment marked the rally high. Inverted head/shoulders pattern is also looking lower and should set up a great buying opportunity into the next technical top date. Our PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS MODEL has mixed signals. Short term neutral/down intermediate term bullish.
so it's official, this is now the best start to a year for the spx since 1991. historically speaking the next 2 months (march & april) are pretty bully. historically march is a pretty strong month. we'll see if that holds true once again this year.
also, this is not something i follow very closely but evidently this is one of the longest spx streaks closing above the 10ma today made it to 38 in row. out of the 12 previous times we saw a streak of this length or longer the spx did pretty well one year later. will be interesting if this were to hold true again as well
