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Stock Market Today: January 11th - 15th, 2021

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 8, 2021.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 11th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Commercial Metals

    12 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: KB Homes, Albertsons

    6:00 a.m. NFIB

    10:00 a.m. JOLTS

    9:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    11:00 a.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    2:00 p.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: IHS Markit, Infosys, Wipro

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    9:35 a.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

    1:00 p.m. Fed Governor Brainard

    2:00 p.m. Federal Budget

    2:00 p.m. Beige Book

    2:00 p.m. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

    3:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida

    • Thursday

    Earnings: BlackRock, First Republic, Taiwan Semiconductor, Delta Airlines

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    9:00 a.m. Boston Fed’s Rosengren

    11:00 a.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    12:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

    • Friday

    Earnings: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, PNC Financial

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    8:30 a.m. Empire manufacturing survey

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10:00 a.m. Business inventories
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks, Bond Yields, & Crypto Soar Amid Payrolls Plunge, "Damaged" Democracy, & Biden's "Trillions"
    So, the first week of the year brought us - the worst first day for stocks in two decades, the "darkest day in American democracy", a dismal jobs print (far worse than expected), ISM beats that were almost entirely predicated on model misattribution of global supply chain disruptions, a blue-sweep of government (fiscal-palooza), and the highest levels of COVID "cases" and deaths.

    What really mattered? The Fed said "no taper" anytime soon, and promises of more $2000 checks and more and more - both of which sparked 'reflation' trades everywhere with cryptos soaring, bond yields spiking and Small-Caps surging relative to Big-Tech.

    After the S&P 500's worst start to a year since the Dot-com mania, markets took off with Small Caps by far the week's biggest gainers...

    [​IMG]

    Everything was fine today until a) 10Y Yields broke above 1.10% (VaR shock impacts on stocks), and b) Sen. Manchin spoiled the party by saying he would not support $2000 checks)...

    But Biden saved the day late-on with promises of lots of money for all...$15 min wage for all... and stimulus in the trillions... stocks went wild! (Small Caps had a down day today)

    [​IMG]

    Small Caps continue to push up towards the key downtrend against Nasdaq...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Which, as SpotGamma notes, is a key technical level from the options market...

    [​IMG]

    Banks were bid as yields rose all week but fell today as the velocity of the yield spike spooked some...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Biotechs soared all week (until this afternoon) with Nasdaq Biotech Index topping 5000 for the first time...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And then there's TSLA!!... which surpassed FB in market cap today with its best week since July...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    It's been quite a wild ride...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bond yields surged higher on the week - the biggest spike in 30Y yields since June 2020...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Yields broke out this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...back to their highest since March...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Real Yields soared this week (biggest spike since March 2020), after hitting record lows, weighing heavily on gold prices...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably for European and Japanese traders, FX-hedged Treasury yields are the most attractive since 2017...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Additionally, Japan’s 30-year bond yields have dropped below currency-hedged 10-year Treasury yields for the first time since 2017...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar rallied on the week with a decent spike yesterday and follow through today...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos were the major headline makers on the week, with ETH up over 60% and BTC up 40%...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    With Bitcoin tagging $42,000 intraday at its peak...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Ethereum nearing $1300 twice...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is Bitcoin tracking 1970s gold?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold was clubbed like a baby-seal this week after a strong start up to pre-vaccine levels...

    [​IMG]

    WTI continued its post-election, post-Fed, post-vaccine (and now post-Saudi fold) surge nearing $52 this week...

    [​IMG]

    Copper closed higher on the week but was weak today...

    [​IMG]

    Finally, there's Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon:

    "The markets have been quite ebullient as of late. You know, I think there's some excess in markets."

    "I think there's a lot of retail participation in markets that's certainly making markets a little bit more ebullient. I'd be cautious about some of that."

    And then there's Fed Vice Chair Clarida who said he's "not worried by stock market values... they're adjusting to a more positive outlook."

    Very positive indeed.

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Of most note today though was the reaction of stocks to bond yields' spike - be careful what you wish for...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Cyclicals Climb, Defensives Decline
    Fri, Jan 8, 2021

    As we noted in yesterday's Sector Snapshot, cyclical sectors are leading the way higher in 2021 as Energy, Materials, and Financials are all up around 5% or more compared to the S&P 500's gain of a more modest 1.65% YTD. That outperformance has led to some sharp moves in the relative strength lines of several sectors. As shown below, the Materials sector and Financials have both seen sharp moves higher in their relative strength lines versus the S&P 500. For Materials, this has been part of a broader trend of outperformance (upward trending line) that has been in place over the past year. For Financials, prior to this most recent upswing, the line first began to trend higher in the late Fall but then took some pause in December. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Health Care, and Industrials have also made moves higher, albeit more modest than those of Materials and Financials.

    As for the other sectors' relative strength lines, there have been some sharp moves in the opposite direction. Starting with what had been market leaders at various points of the past year, Communication Services and Technology are perhaps some of the most notable negative reversals. For the former, the relative strength line has generally moved sideways over the past year, but since mid-December, the line has been on the decline with one of the most dramatic legs lower taking place in the past week. Tech was a consistent outperformer in the first half of 2020, but since the summer that outperformance has faltered. The sector's relative strength line peaked and has been trending sideways since the start of September and the move so far in 2021 has brought the line down towards the low end of the past few months' range. As for other sectors, Real Estate, Utilities, and Consumer Staples have been trending lower for the better portion of the past year, but with cyclical sectors flying, the relative strength lines of these more defensive sectors have made new lows this week in dramatic fashion.

    [​IMG]

    Sector Breadth Strong
    Fri, Jan 8, 2021

    Several measures of market breadth have been showing strength recently as we noted in yesterday's Sector Snapshot. Over 80% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-DMAs, more than half are overbought (at least two standard deviations above its 50-DMA), and over 20% of S&P 500 stocks reached new 52-week highs yesterday. Additionally, shorter-term breadth as measured by the 10-day advance-decline line has also been strong. Pretty much across the board, every sector's 10-day A/D line has tipped into overbought levels. That doesn't apply to only Consumer Staples and Real Estate which have more modest readings, though breadth for these sectors has still been positive recently. At the moment, Materials, Health Care, and Financials are the most overbought sectors by this measure. Overall, the sharp moves higher in the 10-day A/D lines does flash a warning sign for the very near term that things are running a bit hot.

    [​IMG]

    As previously mentioned, several sectors are reaching new 52-week highs, and given breadth has been strong to match, cumulative advance-decline lines are confirming the moves higher. As shown in the charts below, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Industrials, Materials, as well as the broader S&P 500 all closed at 52-week highs last week and so too did those sectors’ cumulative A/D lines. While price did not close at new highs, Tech, Financials, and Communication Services also all saw new highs in their cumulative AD lines.

    [​IMG]

    Stocks Off to Strong Start to 2021
    Fri, Jan 8, 2021

    The average stock in the Russell 3,000 is already up 5.24% year-to-date after just four trading days. And to think, major indices were down ~1% on the first trading day of the year this past Monday. Below we highlight the average YTD performance of stocks by sector in the Russell 3,000. Remember, the Russell 3,000 contains large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps, and it covers roughly 98.5% of all US-traded market cap. As shown, Energy stocks have jumped out to the strongest start to the year with an average gain of 13.26%. Materials rank second with a gain of 9.1%, and then Industrials, Financials, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary are all bunched together with gains between 5% and 6%. Technology stocks -- last year's big leaders -- are 'only' up 4.34% on average so far in 2021, while the Real Estate sector is the only one that has averaged declines.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at Industry Groups, while Technology as a whole is underperforming a bit, the Semiconductor group (which are part of the Tech sector) is up big with average YTD gains of 9.4%. Autos are also performing very well with a gain of 9.2%. Thank you Tesla (TSLA).

    [​IMG]

    There are already more than 600 stocks in the Russell 3,000 that are up more than 10% year-to-date. That represents 20% of the index.

    Below is a look at the top-performing stocks so far in 2021. Usually, it takes weeks or months to see YTD gains like these, but we've gotten here in just four trading days. 3D Systems (DDD) ranks first with a gain of 119%, followed by Atomera (ATOM) at 70%, ViewRay (VRAY) at 59.5%, Arcturus (ARCT) at 54%, and Akerna (KERN) at 52%. We don't fault you if you have never heard of these names!

    [​IMG]

    Equity Winners and Losers in 2020

    2020 was a good year for stock investors despite unprecedented challenges.

    After being down more than 30% at the March 2020 lows, the S&P 500 Index ended the year with a solid 18.4% total return. Last year marked the first time the index ended a year positive after being down at least 30% during that year. Gains were driven primarily by the emerging economic recovery taking hold, bolstered by massive stimulus, and the remarkably fast COVID-19 vaccine development that encouraged market participants to begin to price in the end of the pandemic.

    We take a look at some of the asset class and sector winners and losers in 2020.

    Massive growth outperformance. The growth style of investing had one of its biggest runs ever relative to the value style in 2020, benefiting from better positioning for the pandemic, superior earnings growth, and balance sheet strength. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the major growth indexes returned over 30% while the value indexes produced mid-single-digit gains. The technology sector was the biggest driver of growth outperformance (about 60% of it), but the consumer discretionary sector—led by Amazon, one of the biggest stay-at-home stocks—also outperformed the broad markets and value indexes by a wide margin last year.

    [​IMG]

    Typical January Trading: Mixed Results since 2000
    [​IMG]
    Today’s mixed market performance with mega-cap tech shares declining while other major indexes moving higher is not unusual behavior during January in recent years. The only difference is it has usually been tech moving higher while other areas of the market retreated. Since 2000, the S&P 500 has declined eleven times in twenty-one years in January. This recent weakness can be seen in the above January seasonal pattern chart.

    Over the last 21 years, Only NASDAQ has posted a full-month average gain. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 have all started January positive, only to surrender early-month gains by the end of the month. Weakness has historically accelerated just after mid-month, around the eleventh trading day.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.8.21-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 1.8.21-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for January 8th, 2021
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.10.21
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.11.21 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 1.11.21 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.12.21 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.12.21 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.13.21 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.13.21 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.14.21 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.14.21 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.115.21 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.15.21 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  11. evelynelvis

    evelynelvis New Member

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    the stock really drops from 300 points In 2021?
     
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Big selloff for bitcoin :eek:
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    10 year yields have been spiking a little bit lately, if yields continue to spike it could put some pressure on stocks as well :p
     
  14. evelynelvis

    evelynelvis New Member

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    But is there any update regarding the stock market today?
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    We're due for a pullback, but I don't think we'll get the big one in the first quarter. The McClellan summation index usually turns down after hitting 1000.
    Then I think there'll be a steep one in April.
    Followed by recovery to new highs.
     
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  16. evelynelvis

    evelynelvis New Member

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    In April you mean
     
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Just bringing this over from last week's.

    But, I also found this stat a bit interesting.

    Since 1900, 8 other times a Democrat was the new President. All 8 of those times was a blue wave (Democrats winning both the House and Senate). Interestingly, the SPX was green the following year 6 out of those 8 times (or 75% Higher) for an average return of just under +12%. Not too shabby I'd say. :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah will be interesting to see how the market will do under Biden. Obama probably had an easier time since the market pretty much couldn't go much lower when he took over, Biden would have to impress when the market is trading near ATH :p
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Auto stocks had a nice day, stocks like F, GM and TTM all deep in the green for the day:eek:
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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