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Stock Market Today: January 15th - 19th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 12, 2018.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 15th!


    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Martin Luther King Jr. Day

    Markets closed

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Charles Schwab, Comerica, First Republic Bank, CSX, Interactive Brokers, Pinnacle Financial

    8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, US Bancorp, Fastenal, Alcoa, SLM, Hancock Holding

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    9:15 a.m. Industrial production

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Thursday

    Earnings: American Express, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Bank of NY Mellon, BB&T KeyCorp, JB Hunt, Commerce Bancshares, Canadian Pacific Railway, Taiwan Semiconductor

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    • Friday

    Earnings: Kansas City Southern, Synchrony Financial, Schlumberger,First Horizon, Citizens Financial

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Surge To Best Start In 30 Years; Bitcoin, Bonds & Dollar Battered
    Just "buy" - everyone else is... what could go wrong?



    It's been an interesting year so far... equities are unstoppable, the dollar is tanking, gold is soaring, and bonds are tumbling...



    [​IMG]



    This is easy... US Equities have 'suffered' only one down day in 2018 so far (in fact Trannies haven't seen one down day)...



    [​IMG]

    BTFD!!



    [​IMG]


    Putting this move in context:

    • Trannies best start to a year since 1983
    • S&P best start since 1987
    • Dow best start since 1997
    • Nasdaq best start since 2004


    "Never gonna let you down"

    [​IMG]

    The Dow is up 1060 points in 2018 - 5 names account for more than half those gains (BA, CAT, IBM, MMM, and UTX added 555 points!)



    [​IMG]

    VIX traded back above 10 today again, rising with stocks, and VIX has entirely decoupled from stocks...



    [​IMG]



    Banks had a good week (despite dismal earnings) but Wells ended red...

    [​IMG]



    Facebook took the shine off Nasdaq a little today, tumbling after Zuck's censorship comments...



    [​IMG]

    But thanks to panic-buying in NFLX and AMZN, FANG Stocks exploded higher off-the-lows today...



    [​IMG]



    And while stocks are surging, Treasuries are tumbling - suffering the biggest total return loss since 2006... (worst 2 week drop in 3 months)...

    [​IMG]

    Yields ended the week higher across the curve, but look at the strength in the long-end the last 3 days...



    [​IMG]

    After steepening dramatically after the China headlines, the yield curve collapsed back flatter to end the week unchanged...



    [​IMG]

    2Y Yields topped 2.00% for the first time since Sept 2008...



    [​IMG]



    2Y Yields are now 18bps higher than the dividend yield of the S&P 500...



    [​IMG]

    High yield bonds had the worst week in the last 6, decoupling from stocks...



    [​IMG]



    The dollar plunged most since March 2017 today to the lowest in 4 months... (5th week down in a row)

    [​IMG]



    One wonders if this is the short-term low?



    [​IMG]



    Cryptos have had a volatile start to the year with Bitcoin, Ripple, and Litecoin all holding around unch while Ethereum is up 65%...



    [​IMG]

    This week saw Ripple crash 30%, and Bitcoin dropped around 19% - the worst week since Jan 2015...



    [​IMG]



    The last few years have seen Bitcoin show seasonal tendency to drop into mid-to-late January before picking up into the summer...



    [​IMG]

    In commodity land, copper ended the week lower but Crude and PMs surged today as the dollar collapsed...



    [​IMG]



    Gold surged today - its best day since August - and is up 5 straight weeks...Gold futures hit $1340 for the first time since September 14th...



    [​IMG]

    Normalized for vol, gold has decoupled higher relative to bitcoin...



    [​IMG]



    WTI Crude bounced back above $64 today as the dollar plunged...



    [​IMG]



    And Spot Palladium surged to a new record high...



    [​IMG]



    Bonus Chart: All-In Bitches!!!

    View image on Twitter
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]Not Jim [email protected]_Jim_Cramer

    The last time sentiment was this lopsided, the fallout caused Greenspan to invent the Fed Put (chart courtesy Ed Yardeni)
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Confidence is soaring…everywhere.

    In last weekend’s newsletter, we showed multiple charts of surging investor confidence all at, or near, record levels. But while investors are indeed confident about the markets over the coming year, business and manufacturing surveys (sentiment) have also surged to near record levels. The National Federation Of Independent Businesses (NFIB) just released their December survey which showed a near record level of confidence for business owners.

    [​IMG]

    One thing to notice is that spikes in optimism have generally occurred near peaks in the market.

    Why should that be the case?

    The reason is simple, exuberance tends to be disappointed by reality. When you dig down into the NFIB survey what small business owners are “saying,” and “doing,” are two different things.

    For example, while business owners “SAY” they are optimistic about the economy currently, when it comes to committing their capital they are not nearly as brash. In fact, their level of planned capital expenditures continues to run at levels more normally associated with weak, or recessionary, environments.

    [​IMG]


    What about consumers? They are optimistic as well.

    Well, maybe not as much as you think. The survey shows that while business owners “SAY” sales should be improving, their biggest concern, which is spiking higher, is “poor sales.”

    [​IMG]

    Furthermore, notice that while there has been an immense amount of “chatter” about how the recent tax reform has lowered the burden on business which will lead to a surge in economic growth, etc., the level of concern over the amount of taxes being paid has budged from post-recessionary levels. While taxes were recently lowered, the “cost” of labor is rising which will absorb, for small business owners, much of the impact of any tax cut received.

    There is also a big difference between what the “hope” sales will be and what “actually” occurs. With such high levels of expectations currently, the risk of disappointment in future sales volumes is elevated.

    [​IMG]

    While there is much “hope” that economic growth will boom this coming year due to regulatory and tax changes, history suggests the current levels of “economic optimism” are also likely to be disappointed.

    [​IMG]

    Ultimately, for the markets and for investors, it is what you DO that matters the most.

    Investors are currently set up for disappointment on many fronts over the next 12-24 months. While “exuberance” currently reigns, and investors are piling into risk equity with reckless abandon, the markets will continue to push higher.

    Just be aware that “reality” will eventually set in.

    Here is your weekend reading list.

    Economy & Fed
    Markets

    Cryptocurrency Mania
    Research / Interesting Reads
    “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” – Warren Buffett
     
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Ok, Im calling the top for this week! (Ill get it right eventually!) ;)
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Charts to Watch in 2018: Low Volatility
    Posted by lplresearch

    2017 was one of the least volatile years for the S&P 500 Index in history. With only eight 1% daily changes, not a single 3% pullback, and the lowest average CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) for a full year ever—2017 will go down in tranquility history.

    Which brings us to an important question: What does it mean for 2018?

    Per John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist, “Historically, calm years like what we experienced last year have coincided with great bull markets, but history tells us to buckle up because the following year has tended to be a lot rockier. That isn’t a reason to panic though, as this may bring about opportunities for active investors.”

    We looked at years with some of the smallest intra-year pullbacks ever and found that the average gain was nearly 26%. The next year, however, saw an average pullback of 12.1%, while the average number of 1% moves (closes either up or down 1%) spiked from under 13 to over 30. But the good news is the S&P 500 managed to gain a respectable 8.5% on average.

    [​IMG]

    In other words, a continuation of the bull market is possible, but another steady move higher appears unlikely. Instead, we should be on the lookout for multiple dips and consider using those opportunities to add to equity positions during the year.

    January Expiration Week Choppy Last 19 Years
    [​IMG]
    Over the past thirty-five years, since 1983, the S&P 500’s performance during January’s option expiration week has been a mixed bag. Friday has been up 19 and down 16, and the entire week has been down three times for every two times it has been up. However, in the past nineteen years (1999-2017), the S&P 500’s performance has taken a turn for the worse with expiration day falling ten times with an average loss of .18% and the full-week declining 14 times with an average loss of 1.01%. DJIA and NASDAQ have similar track records since 1999.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Positive Santa Claus Rally & First Five Days Boost Full-Year Prospects
    [​IMG]
    Even though today turned out to be a mixed day for the market (DJIA down, S&P 500 and NASDAQ up), S&P 500 is still positive year-to-date (2.8%) and thus our First Five Day (FFD) early warning system is also positive. Combined with last week’s positive Santa Claus Rally (SCR), our January Trifecta is now two for two. The January Trifecta would be satisfied with a positive reading from our January Barometer (JB) at month’s end.

    Even if S&P 500 was to suddenly reverse course and finish the full month in the red, the outlook for the next eleven months and the full year remain quite good. Of the last 39 years since 1950 that the SCR and FFD were both positive, the next eleven months and full year advanced 87.2% of the time with gains of 11.5% and 14.0% respectively.

    A positive SCR and FFD are encouraging and further clarity will be gained when the January Barometer (page 16, STA 2018) reports at month’s end. A positive January Barometer would further lift expectations for solid full-year gains.

    Blackout For Utilities
    Jan 12, 2018

    It’s really hard to imagine how a sector could be doing as bad as the Utilities sector in a tape that has been as strong as this one, but the reality is that when everyone expects rates to increase, they want nothing to do with interest rate sensitive sectors like Utilities. The following charts are from this week’s Sector Snapshots report which looks at the technical and fundamental backdrop for the S&P 500’s major sectors. The report is published every Thursday for Bespoke Premium Clients, so if you don’t already receive it, sign up for a trial today.

    Let’s start with the Utilities sector’s price chart. After trading into extreme overbought territory late last year, investors have headed for the exits and taken the sector to its most oversold levels in well over a year. In fact, to find a time when the sector was more oversold than it has gotten in the current leg lower, you have to go back to June 2015.

    [​IMG]

    With the Utilities sector being so weak in an otherwise strong tape, the relative strength versus the S&P 500 has fallen off a cliff. Utilities is not normally a volatile sector, so that makes the recent moves stand out even more. Note in the chart too, how the recent leg lower in relative strength really picked up steam right after the FOMC’s most recent rate hike.

    [​IMG]

    Not surprisingly, breadth for the sector has been weak. Two charts that highlight this are the sector’s 10-Day A/D line which takes a rolling tally of the net number of stocks in the sector rising on a daily basis. As of yesterday, the sector was firmly into oversold territory.

    [​IMG]

    The other illustration of the Utility sector’s pitiful breadth is the percentage of stocks in the sector trading above their 50-day moving average. Currently, that stands at just 11%. Again, this is an extreme reading.

    [​IMG]

    Given the declines, one would think that the sector’s valuation would be starting to look attractive, and while the sector’s P/E ratio has come in pretty significantly from over 19.5 times trailing earnings, it still trades at just over 18 times trailing earnings, which for a little to no growth sector, doesn’t exactly scream buy. That said, from a short-term perspective, the sector should be due for at least a bounce.

    [​IMG]

    You Don’t See This Very Often
    Jan 10, 2018

    It’s been a rough week for Bitcoin and a lot of other crypto-currencies. Bitcoin is down three days in a row and 17% over this time period. What’s really amazing about the declines in Bitcoin from its high back in mid-December is that even though it’s down over 30%, the price is still 14% above its 50-day moving average. You don’t see that very often, and it just goes to show how insane the rally was from early November through December.

    [​IMG]

    Even after the recent declines in crypto-currencies, there are still 23 cryptos with market values in excess of $2 billion. The table below lists each one of them along with their current value. Not included on this list are another 18 cryptos with market values above $1 billion. That includes Dogecoin, which has a market value of $1.4 bln even though it was created as a joke. The founder has even been quoted as saying, “New features aren’t being implemented into dogecoin because there’s no active development anymore…Eventually, it will become outdated.” Yet people are still paying for it.

    As shown at the bottom of the table, the combined market cap of the 23 cryptos listed below is over $600 billion, while the top 100 cryptos have a combined market cap of around $700 billion. In this age where billions are seemingly thrown around like bags of rice, that may not sound like much, but with the total market cap of US equities at around $30 trillion, $700 billion represents nearly 2.5% of all US listed equities. That’s not an insignificant amount for an “asset class” that most people hadn’t even heard about before this past fall.

    [​IMG]

    Financial Sector Earnings Reports on Deck
    Jan 9, 2018

    Less than 100 companies will report earnings between now and next Friday, but this week mark’s the official kick-off to the Q4 2017 earnings reporting season. Below is a list of the 30 largest companies set to report between now and January 19th. As you can see, the bulk of large-cap companies set to report over the next 10 days are in the Financial sector.

    On Friday alone, we’ll hear from JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and PNC. How these Financials react to their earnings reports will be an important early signal as to how investors plan to trade earnings this season. As we highlighted yesterday in a Chart of the Day, analysts have gotten extremely bullish ahead of this earnings season, hiking EPS estimates at their fastest pace in ten years. (Bloomberg featured our data in an article on this topic this morning.)

    The data included in our table below is pulled from our Interactive Earnings Calendar (which you can use this earnings season by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Premium). For each stock, we show its estimated report date and time, its EPS and revenue estimate, and its historical earnings and revenue beat rate (% of time it has beaten consensus estimates). We also show how the stock has historically traded on its earnings reaction days, which is the first trading day following its past quarterly reports.

    As you can see in the table, UnitedHealth (UNH), Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), and Synchrony Financial (SYF) are the stocks set to report soon that have historically beaten EPS estimates the most often. In terms of price reactions, Delta Air Lines (DAL), BlackRock (BLK), CSX, Morgan Stanley (MS), KeyCorp (KEY), and Canadian Pacific (CP) have historically gone up the most on their earnings reaction days. Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Bank of America (BAC), and IBM have historically reacted the most negatively to earnings reports.

    [​IMG]

    Charts to Watch in 2018: Profits
    Posted by lplresearch

    To begin 2018, we’ll highlight various charts to watch for the upcoming year. We’re kicking things off today with one of the key drivers of long-term equity performance: profits.

    2017 was the first year since 2010 to see positive earnings growth in the S&P 500 Index, foreign developed markets, and emerging markets. This broad-based strength in global earnings helped spark a global rally, as the MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) gained 24%, with many emerging market countries gaining even more.

    [​IMG]

    Per John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist, “The big question many are asking is whether there’s room for stocks to continue to go higher in 2018 given the large gains we saw last year. When you look at the extent of corporate earnings growth globally, we think last year’s gains were justified, and believe that we could be looking at the first time since before the Financial Crisis that we will have back-to-back years of positive earnings out of the United States, foreign developed markets, and emerging markets. That is a nice backdrop for continued higher prices globally.”

    A Strong First Five Days Could Have Bulls Smiling
    Posted by lplresearch

    So far so good for the S&P 500 Index as it has just logged a 2.8% gain over the first five trading days of 2018 to mark its best five-day start to a year since 2006.

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Like a kid sledding down a hill, sometimes all it takes is a little momentum to get moving. Well, stocks appear to be similar, as when the first five days of a new year are up 2% or more, the full year has been higher 15 out of 15 times!”

    Not only has the full-year return for the S&P 500 been positive in every instance when the index gains at least 2% over the first five trading days of the year, but the average gain has been a very impressive 18.6%.

    [​IMG]

    Although we expect the bull market to continue, one key point we want to stress is not to expect another smooth ride like we saw in 2017. Last year was the first year in history that the S&P 500 went all 12 months without a 3% correction; it also had the fewest 1% daily changes since 1965 and the smallest average daily change since 1964.

    In short, 2017 was truly historic in terms of tranquility. But what should matter most to investors now is that years that started off with a 2% or greater return after five days have seen an average correction of 11.1% within the year.

    Warming Up to the S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns in January
    Posted by lplresearch

    January has certainly brought record-breaking cold weather to the Northeast, with some areas experiencing temperatures never felt before. The market, however, continues its hot streak.

    As we hopefully move away from this cold spell and the weather starts to warm up, we will also be looking at January seasonal patterns in the S&P 500 Index that could help to keep your portfolio warm should the market cool off.

    January tends to be a mixed bag for equity market seasonal patterns. In fact, for those who follow these statistics, looking back over the past 20 years, there could be a 50% likelihood that stocks could move higher during this month.

    Our latest analysis identified a variety of sectors that showed a seasonal tendency to outperform the S&P 500 during January over the last 20 years—a month when the index has on average moved lower by 0.7%, generating positive returns 50% of the time. As we review the data, it’s important to note that nonseasonal factors still influence performance and should not be ignored.

    The table below highlights sectors’ average over- and under-performance versus the S&P 500 during January since 1998, as well as the top-performing industry groups over the same time period:

    [​IMG]

    The information technology, healthcare, utilities, and consumer discretionary sectors have on average tended to exhibit the highest relative strength. However, if you are interested in looking under the hood for a more targeted strategy, out of the top 10 industry groups, you may want to consider the information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors as they have represented seasonally strong breadth for select industry categories in the month of January over the period analyzed. As we start 2018, we can shift our thoughts away from the frigid temperatures to the warmth of the equity markets. But should stocks hit a cold spell this month after a hot start, let us warm up to the seasonal statistics that we tend to see in January—as well as the possibility that it could be a good time to consider implementing this type of analysis as part of your portfolio management plan.
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 1.12.18
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.15.18 - The Melt Up
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current indices pullback/correction levels (for if, IF this market ever decides to pullback! :p) as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels for if this market continues to rocket to new highs as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.15.18 Before Market Open:
    (MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY!)

    Monday 1.15.18 After Market Close:
    (MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY!)

    Tuesday 1.16.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.16.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.17.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.17.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.18.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.18.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.19.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.19.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    And finally we have a couple of price polls up and running for you guys to vote on as well!-

    These will all expire pretty soon so be sure to cast those votes in ASAP.
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate!

    I hope you all have a fantastic long weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And lastly, just a remind in here that the markets will be closed this Monday (1/15) in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

    Here is the CME Globex futures holiday schedule-

    [​IMG]
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead:
    ($BAC $C $UNH $IBM $GS $FAST $FRC $CMA $OZRK $MS $SLB $ASML $INFO $AA $USB $CSX $JBHT $AXP $MBWM $KEY $TSM $BK $IBKR $SCHW $STI $PPG $BBT $HOMB $MTB $SYF $FHN $PNFP $KSU $WNS $RF $CBSH $SASR $CFG $GATX)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Bank of America Corp. $31.19
    [​IMG]Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.44 per share on revenue of $21.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.48 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.00% with revenue decreasing by 5.60%. Short interest has increased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.8% above its 200 day moving average of $25.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 4, 2018 there was some notable buying of 116,864 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.1% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Citigroup, Inc. $76.84
    [​IMG]Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.19 per share on revenue of $17.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.39% with revenue decreasing by 15.08%. Short interest has decreased by 0.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.8% above its 200 day moving average of $67.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 4, 2018 there was some notable buying of 20,527 contracts of the $77.50 call expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    UnitedHealth Group, Inc. $228.64
    [​IMG]UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.50 per share on revenue of $51.52 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.48% with revenue increasing by 8.41%. Short interest has decreased by 30.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.1% above its 200 day moving average of $193.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 5,189 contracts of the $232.50 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    International Business Machines Corp. $163.14
    [​IMG]International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, January 18, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.17 per share on revenue of $21.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.22 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.19% with revenue increasing by 0.78%. Short interest has decreased by 30.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.3% above its 200 day moving average of $151.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 103,097 contracts of the $155.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. $257.03
    [​IMG]Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.90 per share on revenue of $7.61 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.54% with revenue decreasing by 6.85%. Short interest has decreased by 17.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.3% above its 200 day moving average of $230.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 5,681 contracts of the $220.00 put expiring on Friday, January 26, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Fastenal Co. $55.59
    [​IMG]Fastenal Co. (FAST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.45 per share on revenue of $1.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.47 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.50% with revenue increasing by 13.93%. Short interest has decreased by 10.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 28.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.9% above its 200 day moving average of $46.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 10, 2018 there was some notable buying of 14,628 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, May 18, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    First Republic Bank $91.06
    [​IMG]First Republic Bank (FRC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.23 per share on revenue of $717.97 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.42% with revenue increasing by 11.07%. Short interest has decreased by 20.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.6% below its 200 day moving average of $95.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 1,200 contracts of the $85.00 put expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Comerica, Inc. $93.04
    [​IMG]Comerica, Inc. (CMA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.25 per share on revenue of $819.44 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 26.26% with revenue increasing by 9.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.6% above its 200 day moving average of $74.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 12, 2018 there was some notable buying of 1,487 contracts of the $90.00 put and 1,451 contracts of the $97.50 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Morgan Stanley $55.12
    [​IMG]Morgan Stanley (MS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, January 18, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $9.10 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.94% with revenue decreasing by 9.05%. Short interest has decreased by 31.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.8% above its 200 day moving average of $46.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 there was some notable buying of 7,010 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. $52.47
    [​IMG]Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (OZRK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, January 16, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $249.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.77 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.17% Short interest has decreased by 7.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.6% above its 200 day moving average of $46.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    So, earnings season gets going in full gear starting from this week.

    What else is everyone watching this week?

    Anything noteworthy?

    Any good looking setups you guys are eyeing?

    Econ. calendar begins to pick up just a smidgen.

    Have a great long weekend and a great trading week ahead to everyone!
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Damnit looks like I'm second. In last week's thread, @bigbear0083 dug up stats on 2003 which was +5% in the first 2 weeks but ended down for January and -8% by March. That would align with what I was looking for in the 2018 predictions, so I may be biased to those results :cool:

    Consider this: marijuana and bitcoin (the two most hyped sectors) are down from their tops. NYC mayor deBlasio wants to sue the oil companies for their profits. At least half of FANG have doubts over this coming ER season; Apple may have had a slow start with the X (but when does the media not try to cast doubt over Apple's phones), and FB with their news feed.
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    And evidently Hawaii got a fake missile alert. How much stocks will they want to buy next week? :cool:
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    oh man yeah just saw that now ... @stock1234 is out there in hawaii ... hope all is okay stock! glad to hear it was just a false alarm.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    Thank You guys ;) I was still sleeping when I got the alert, it was scary for a moment but thankfully we got to know that it was a false alarm relatively quickly. The local news channels here are covering the story now. Man if this incident happened yesterday in the same hours instead, I think the market would have turned red immediately. Anyway, we are thankful that it was just a false alarm, really scary stuff :(
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    I think we go higher :p
     
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good morning and Happy MLK Jr. Day! Hope everyone is enjoying their day off today.

    The cash markets are closed but globex futures are open until 1pm eastern.

    Looks like we'll see another day of large round # milestones again absent some exogenous event between now and tomorrow's open.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    DXY finding news lows again and threatening to breach that 90-handle level.

    Haven't seen these levels since 2015 ... should bode well for PM's.

    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.

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