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Stock Market Today: January 20th - 24th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 17, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 20th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Martin Luther King holiday

    Stock market closed

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Netflix, Haliburton, IBM, Capital One, TD Ameritrade, United Airlines

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Johnson and Johnson, Abbott Labs, Citrix, Raymond James, SLM, Bancorp South, Baker Hughes, Northern Trust, Texas Instruments, Fifth Third, Comerica

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Procter and Gamble, Intel, Union Pacific, American Airlines, Comcast, Keycorp, Kimberly Clark, Huntington Banchshares, Southwest, Travelers, ETrade, JetBlue, Discover Financial, Intuitive Surgical, Skyworks

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    10:00 a.m. Leading economic indicators

    • Friday

    Earnings: American Express, Raytheon, Air Products, Synchrony Financial, NextEra Energy

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Melt-Up Mania: Stocks Reach Most Expensive, Most Overbought Levels, Surpassing DotCom Bubble
    The Fed has created a Full-Rick-Astley market...

    And everyone knows, you never go full-Risk-Astley!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European markets were all green on the week with UK's FTSE leading the way,,,

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European 'VIX' hit a new record low today...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    All major US indices were notably green this week with Trannies and Small Caps best...

    [​IMG]

    Notably Small Caps and Trannies were weakest today (after some chaos at the open). The Dow was rescued every time it touched unch...

    [​IMG]

    Defensives dominated cyclicals this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The S&P 500 has now had 70 straight days without a 1% loss... SURPRISE - since The Fed started re-expanding its balance sheet...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    In case you wondered, the period before the Fed 2018 crash was 112 days without a 1% move.

    Nasdaq is as overbought as it was during the dotcom bubble peak...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And the S&P 500 has never been more expensive...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This week saw the biggest short-squeeze since October...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This week saw the 'average' stock in America finally transcend its previous highs of Sept 2018...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    After this morning's solid housing starts dats, PHLX Housing Index spiked to record highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Broker-Dealer stocks soared to all-time highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Auto stocks surged to the highest since 2004?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Jeff Bezos is still not a member of the "four commas" club...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Credit spreads were hammered lower every day this week as equity protection costs tumbled to an 11 handle briefly...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields roundtripped on the week after dropping early and rising in the last two days to end unchanged...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar spiked today, testing a key resistance level and failing once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Global FX Vol fell to a new record low...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    A big week for cryptos led by Bitcoin Cash...(NOTE - late day today cryptos were dumped)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Commodities were mixed with PMs flat, copper up and crude lower...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    US NatGas dropped below $2 for the first time since 2016

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Palladium has gone utterly parabolic, soaring 8% today - the biggest daily spike since Dec 2009

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And while Palladium had a massive 2019, it has started 2020 off exponentially strong...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, according to BofA, the S&P is overvalued on 19 of 20 metrics

    [​IMG]

    So there's still hope!

    And the Y2K Fed Liquidity Analog is still holding...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday Week Trading Mixed since 1998, But Improving Lately
    [​IMG]
    Although Martin Luther King Jr. Day was a holiday in many states and cities throughout the U.S. beginning in 1971, it did not become a federal holiday until 1986. Even then it was not observed by the NYSE until 1998. In the 22 years since, the market’s performance during this four-trading-day week has been somewhat lackluster with average weekly performance negative for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. Average losses range from 0.79% by DJIA to 0.14% by NASDAQ. Of the five indexes, not one has a record better than 50/50. However, since 2012 performance has shown signs of improving. DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have risen in six of the last eight years. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have climbed in five of the last eight.
    [​IMG]

    A Closer Look At Election Years

    2020 is off to a roaring start, picking up right where 2019 left off. Many investors are eyeing the upcoming presidential election as an impending storm for the stock market. In the four-year presidential cycle, pre-election years have tended to be the strongest for stocks, as sitting presidents have taken measures to boost the economy and stock market higher to garner votes. It sure worked out well last year, with the S&P 500 Index’s 31% total return.

    Returns in election years, however, have been quite bifurcated.

    “If an incumbent president was up for reelection, stocks tended to do extremely well,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “On the other hand, if there was a lame duck president in office, returns were quite muted.”

    Note that a “lame duck president” means the sitting president either isn’t running for reelection or has already fulfilled the maximum two terms. It makes sense, as the president could be less motivated to do things to heat up the economy if they know they are leaving office. Possibly, investors may also get cold feet knowing a change is coming. The S&P 500 was down in 2000 and 2008, and the sitting president was a “lame duck president” both years.

    In the LPL Chart of the Day, we break down election years by whether the president was running for reelection or a lame duck. The chart shows the S&P 500 up an impressive 11.7% on average if the President was running for reelection, compared to up an average of 2.4% if president was a “lame duck president”.

    Given most presidents who have run a second time have tended to win, this could be the market’s way of saying it is comfortable with the status quo over change.

    [​IMG]

    Another encouraging historical trend is that the S&P 500 hasn’t been lower during an election year with an incumbent president up for reelection since 1940. To be clear, stocks have been up during election years when the incumbent president actually lost. In 1980, the S&P 500 gained nearly 26%, but Jimmy Carter still lost to Ronald Reagan. In other words, this does support the notion of higher stocks in 2020, but higher stocks can’t always tell you who will win in November.

    [​IMG]

    Q4 Earnings Season is All About 2020

    Fourth quarter earnings season kicked off this week with 24 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results. Our expectations are for a marginal increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) on a year-over-year basis, based on current FactSet consensus estimates (-2% year over year) and the average historical upside of roughly 3 percentage points.

    We’ve become accustomed to meager earnings growth. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, if fourth quarter results are anywhere near expectations, 2019 will end up as a year with S&P 500 returns of more than 30% and no corporate earnings growth to speak of. That means expanding stock valuations drove the market’s gains last year, a trend we do not expect to continue.

    [​IMG]

    “We expect earnings growth to drive stock market gains in 2020,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “With valuations elevated, corporate America will probably have to do the heavy lifting to get stocks much above current levels.”

    Accordingly, the key to this reporting season will be whether the optimistic growth outlook reflected in consensus earnings estimates for this year remains intact after companies issue guidance. Many companies will be commenting on 2020 for the first time. Our estimate of $175 per share in S&P 500 EPS for the entire year represents a 6–7% increase from our $165 forecast for 2019. Based on the latest consensus estimates, that growth rate may get pushed up a bit. We still think $175 is attainable if capital investment picks up after stalling last year and wage growth remains stable.

    Trade progress may help. The United States and China will sign the phase-one trade deal later today. While negotiations on the next phase will be tougher and could even stall out, businesses would welcome the additional clarity that de-escalation can provide, something that clearly weighed on corporate profits last year.

    January Off To Stronger Than Usual Start – But 2nd Half Is Weaker
    [​IMG]
    Stocks are off to a stronger that usual so far in January 2020 when compared in the chart above to the average performance over the most recent 21-year period. As of today’s close DJIA is up 1.41%, S&P 500 +1.61%, NASDAQ leads the pack +3.11% and the Russell 2000 was in the red until the past two days and is now up 0.44%. This is well above historical average performance in recent Januarys.

    The market was up nicely today until reports hit the newswires at about 1:30 pm ET creating uncertainty that the Phase 1 trade deal expected to be signed tomorrow between the US and China may be pabulum. The realization that the tariffs on Chinese goods may remain in place until after the election as the review process runs its course drove stocks lower this afternoon. The market gave back most of its early gains with only the Dow and Russell 2000 eking out gains today.

    However, as you can see in the dotted lines so far in 2020 the indices are tracking the last 21-years rather closely. If the pattern continues to pan out this year, look for a little strength over the next two days. Then weakness has been prone to appear just after mid-month after the eleventh trading day with mild average losses from on or around the eleventh trading day to the fourteenth trading day.

    January Trifecta Jackpot for Stocks
    [​IMG]
    Solid across the board gains this year have put another January Trifecta Jackpot in our sights for 2020. So far our January Trifecta is two for two. Our First Five Day (FFD) early warning system came in positive up 0.7% on January 8 following up on a positive reading for our Santa Claus Rally (SCR) on January 3. The January Trifecta would be satisfied with a positive reading from our January Barometer (JB) at month’s end.

    We just published an update on The Incredible January Barometer: Only 11 Major Errors in 82 Years that runs through the reasons behind the efficacy of the January. We discuss how the passage of the Twentieth “Lame Duck” Amendment to the Constitution in 1933 created the January Barometer. We also compare the January Barometer results along with the full year results, the following eleven months results, and the subsequent twelve months results to all other “Monthly Barometers” using the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite

    The best case, most bullish scenario is when all three indicators, SCR, FFD and JB, are positive (in table below). In 31 previous Trifecta occurrences since 1950, S&P 500 advanced 87.1% of the time during the subsequent eleven months and 90.3% of the time for the full year. However, a January Indicator Trifecta does not guarantee the year will be bear or correction free. Of the four losing “Last 11 Mon” years, in the table, 1966, 1987 and 2011 experienced short duration bear markets (2011, S&P 500 –19.4% peak to trough). In 2018, S&P 500 retreated 19.8% from its September high close to its December low close.

    Even if S&P 500 was to suddenly reverse course and finish the full month in the red, the prospects for the next eleven months and the full year remain decent. Of the last 10 times since 1950 that the SCR and FFD were both positive (and the full-month January was negative), the next eleven months advanced 80% of the time and full year advanced 70% of the time with gains of 7.4% and 2.9% respectively.

    A positive SCR and FFD are encouraging and further clarity will be gained when the January Barometer (page 16, 2020 Stock Trader’s Almanac) reports at month’s end. A positive January Barometer would certainly boost prospects for full-year 2020. The December Low Indicator (2020 STA, page 34) should also be watched with the line in the sand at the Dow’s December Closing Low of 27502.81 on 12/3/19.
    [​IMG]

    Global Equities Closing In On A Breakout
    Fri, Jan 17, 2020

    Below is a chart of the Bloomberg World Equity Market index, which is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 publicly listed companies around the world (including the US). While the S&P 500 is up more than 15% from its January 2018 high, it's notable that we still haven't seen equities break out on a global scale. As shown, the Bloomberg World Index is now just a hair below its prior all-time highs (22 basis points to be exact).

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The Largest Stocks Weigh Heavy on the S&P 500
    Wed, Jan 15, 2020

    There has been plenty of chatter recently concerning the impact of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 on the broader index. As shown in the chart below, 2020 began with the market caps of Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Facebook (FB) totaling 17.3% of the S&P 500's total market cap. Since at least 1990, that is the largest percentage of total market cap that has been taken up by the top five stocks at the start of the year. The only other year with the top five stocks holding a comparably high weighting is 2000 when it was 17%. That year the five stocks that held the highest share of total S&P 500 market cap were Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Cisco (CSCO), Walmart (WMT), and Intel (INTC). While MSFT is the only one to have stayed on this list for all but one year (2001) since then, GE currently has fallen to the 66th largest stock in the index, CSCO the 27th, WMT is the 10th largest, and INTC is the 18th largest.

    [​IMG]

    Three Months And Counting Since Last 1% Decline
    Tue, Jan 14, 2020

    It has now been over three months since the S&P 500's last decline of 1% or more back on 10/9. While it seems like an eternity, the current streak of 67 trading days is nowhere near any sort of record on either a long or short-term basis. The chart below shows historical streaks without a decline of 1%+ for the S&P 500 dating back to 1928. The record for the longest streak was back in 1963 when the S&P 500 went 174 trading days - a full eight months - without a 1% drop. Even more impressive is the fact that in both the 1950s and 1960s there were numerous streaks of 100 or more days. For a decade that is looked back on as one with a lot of upheaval in the US, the 1960s was a period of relative calm for the equity market.

    More recently, the current streak of 67 trading days doesn't look all that impressive relative to streaks we saw back in 2017 and 2018. Right after the election in 2016 and into March of 2017, the S&P 500 had a 109-day streak without a 1% decline, and then from late 2017 through January 2018, there was another streak of 112 trading days without a 1% drop. Even in October 2018, there was another streak of 74 trading days. In other words, in just the last three years there have been three longer streaks without a 1% decline than the current one. In the S&P 500's history, there have been 26 other streaks that have been as long or longer than the current one, and half of those went on to last at least 100 trading days.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.17.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for January 17th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.19.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic 3-day weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.20.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MLK DAY.

    Monday 1.20.20 After Market Close:
    NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF MLK DAY.

    Tuesday 1.21.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.21.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.22.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.22.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.23.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.23.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.24.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.24.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($NFLX $FCEL $HAL $INTC $PG $UAL $ABT $AAL $ALLY $CMA $AXP $ASML $TAL $LUV $JBLU $TEAM $KMI $PLD $SWKS $ISRG $MBWM $TXN $COF $ONB $UNP $AMTD $FNB $SBNY $RCI $KMB $STM $AUB $ERIC $BKR $KEY $NAVI $NEE $APH $NTRS $CBU $TER $ZION)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    couple of stats i ran across in my afternoon reads here that i thought were worth a quick share in here.

    since 1950, when a sitting president has been up for reelection, the market has finished the year green every single time. and interestingly enough, the bulk of the gains have actually occurred during the second half of the year.

    historically speaking price action has been kinda choppy from feb. through july though.

    [​IMG]

    additionally, since 1950 when the SPX has been higher +28% (2019 not included), the very next year has been green every single time, and up about +19% on average. here's what the average year looks like under this scenario.

    [​IMG]

    and finally, here is what the avg year, election year, up for reelection, and year after a +28% gain look like for the SPX. it's interesting that things are better when a president is up for reelection and following a 28% gain. in other words, i guess you can say this bull ain't done just yet :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market moving lower on the coronavirus concern. Airlines and casino stocks getting hammered :eek:
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    just me? or have the markets gotten a little boring lately? :p
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Was a little busy after waking up :p Looks like BA dragging the DOW down somewhat once again but IBM helping the DOW to stay in green :D
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Chinese internet stocks like MOMO and HUYA down huge today, not sure if there is any news other than coronavirus :eek:
     
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  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Death toll is rising.
    I don’t think it’ll turn into a pandemic though.
    Just my opinion.

    strange how most of these weird viruses originate from China...like their biological weapons division is testing things out on their own people.

    https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/cbw/
     
    #18 OldFart, Jan 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  21. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market well off the lows :eek: Got in CCL at $48.83, think the coronavirus fears will fade pretty soon if the situations there aren’t worsen that much during the Chinese New Year
     
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