Yeah, but which way? Bull or Bear? Because the longer term pattern set up here, according to a video a week or so ago by shadow trader (looks like how kids draw seagulls) is a very bullish pattern. And sure enough, here we go.
Nice call on hitting ATH's today @Baggi -- oh, and welcome back @Gil Oren, was wondering where you were hiding! Bulls definitely recovered some lost ground today. We did, in fact, stutter right around 1351s this AM, but boy once they got through that there was no looking back! Broke through the 20 DMA (mirroring that downtrend RTL) and interestingly stopped right @ that uptrend RTL. The 10-min chart shows nice consolidation sailing into the close... I think upside is going to hit another stalling point @ 1375, that is the previous pivot high. Of course there is the ultimate ceiling @ 1392, no ATHs for the RUT today. Much like all that support I pointed out last night, now the RUT is looking at tiered levels of resistance, IMHO. Resistance where the RUT closed, then again @ 1375...really onward up thru 1392. I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in tomorrow's move (caveat -- unless RUT breaks 1392 or falls under 50 DMA...neither of which I think will happen). Previously sized candle was followed by a downer -- so I suspect the same tomorrow. But really, baring either of those MAJOR levels being broke, tomorrow is whatevs
I am, by no stretch, the Oracle that is Shadow Trader...BUT...my 2-cents: The last time we saw this type of "really tight" range looks to have been back in July-Sep 2016. It, too, had a mini-dip just outside the range...like we saw at the turn of the New Year. It broke to the downside back then...chopped around some more...and THEN it really dipped before ripping higher. The Dip-n-Rip seems to be the preferred method for kick-starting real moves, at least going back to the beginning of 2016, anyway. Today's pop, while nice & all, wasn't preceded by a REAL Dip...so I think think chop needs to break to the downside, to around 2200, before we see her really take off again (maybe).
The US bond market has faced multiple headwinds of late including rising inflation expectations and Fed raising interest rates after almost 8 years of zero interest environment. Yields have already risen from 1.86% during election to 2.45% by the end of the year 2016. But there is an additional headwind that the bond markets face: Sell off of US treasuries at record rates by China -the largest owner of US debt. According to a CNN article,China's holdings of US Govt. bonds fell $66bn in November, highest since 2011,to $1.05tn and have dropped $195bn since May last year. With China trying to defend its weakening currency, the reasons for this decline seem benign, but there remains a possibility that this sell-off could make the already increasing yields go even higher. This could have implications for the consumer borrowing costs given that Treasury rates serve as benchmarks for loan rates. The US may find it easier to attract capital to fund its increasing deficit given its high interest rates as compared with the very low / negative rates elsewhere in the developed nations. But it must be prepared with the possibility of not having China as its number 1 lender to finance its growing federal deficit.
Here are the most notable ERs due out after the market close today from the following companies (w/ charts & estimates): ($QCOM $T $WDC $EBAY $LVS $FFIV $LRCX $XLNX $URI $CTXS $MCK $NOW $EGHT $QTM $NG $CSFL $VRTX $RJF $MEOH) Below are the tickers coming out with earnings releases after the market close today with the time of release & estimates- Wednesday 1.25.17 After Market Close Earnings Releases:
Dow 20,000 – Finally After at least a month of flirting with 20,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally broke through the level that everyone…OK, just some people…has been watching for the last several weeks. In honor of crossing the 20,000 threshold, the table below lists the date that the DJIA first crossed each thousand point threshold (on a closing basis) going back to 1,000 back in 1972. We also show how many days elapsed between the first time the index crossed each level, along with the number of times is crossed that threshold to the upside and downside crosses, as well as what percentage each successive 1,000 points represents as a percentage of the index’s level. Looking at the table, a couple of things stand out. First, the 64 days that elapsed between the first cross of 19,000 and 20,000 would represent the second shortest amount of time that transpired between two thousand point levels. The only one that was shorter was the 35 days that elapsed between 10,000 and 11,000. The 64-day sprint between 19,000 and 20,000 may sound impressive, but when you consider the fact that 1,000 points only represents 5% at 20,000 compared to 10% at 10,000 it loses a bit of its luster. Another aspect of the current rally worth citing is that after first crossing 19K back in November, the DJIA has yet to look back and trade below that level. The only other 1,000 point level that the DJIA crossed to the upside and never looked back from was 5,000 back in November 1995. Another aspect of the current rally worth citing is that after first crossing 19K back in November, the DJIA has yet to look back and trade below that level. The only other 1,000 point level that the DJIA crossed to the upside and never looked back from was 5,000 back in November 1995. While 5K and 19K are levels the DJIA has yet to ever revisit, DJIA 10,000 and 11,000 were levels that the index just couldn’t shake off. The DJIA first crossed 10K in 1999, but over the years following that first cross, it moved above and below that level 66 times. 11K was even harder to shake off for the index. Since first crossing that threshold in May 1999, the index has moved above and below that level on a closing basis 86 other times.
Well finally the Dow hit 20K We could get another round number for the SPX as well, getting close to 2300
It is interesting to know that the Dow hasn't gone back down to below of 19K after crossing above of it
Here are the most notable ERs due out before the market open tomorrow morning from the following companies (w/ charts & estimates): ($BMY $F $CELG $CAT $BX $JBLU $BIIB $LUV $CMCSA $RTN $STM $DOW $POT $RCL $NOC $FCAU $PHM $SHW $DGX $ADS) Below are the tickers coming out with earnings before market open tomorrow morning with the expected time of release & estimates- Thursday 1.26.17 Before Market Open Earnings Releases:
