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Stock Market Today: January 27th - 31st, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 24, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 27th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: DR Horton, Whirlpool, Graco, Juniper Networks, F5 Networks, Brown and Brown, Equity LifeStyle Properties, J&J Snack Foods

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Apple, 3M, Pfizer, United Technologies, Starbucks, eBay, LVMH, Autoliv, PulteGroup, Paccar, McCormick, HCA, Xilinx, Stryker, Alaska Air, Boston Properties, MicroSrategy

    FOMC meeting begins

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Boeing, Microsoft, Facebook, AT&T, Dow, General Electric, McDonald’s, Mastercard, Tesla, PayPal, Mondelez, Cirrus Logic, Cree, Legg Mason, Corning, Novartis, Anthem, Hess, Stanley Black and Decker, Southern Co, Norfolk Southern, General Dynamics, Rockwell Automation

    8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    2:00 p.m. FOMC decision

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thusday

    Earnings: Amazon.com, Coca-Cola, Royal Dutch Shell, Raytheon, Eli Lilly, Altria, Verizon, Unilever, UPS, Blackstone, Dupont, Hershey, International Paper, Marsh and McLennan, AmerisourceBergen, Northrop Grumman, Nintendo, Sprint, Sherwin-Williams, MSCI, Amgen, Visa, US Steel

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Q4 GDP 10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

    • Friday

    Earnings: Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Illinois Tool Works, KKR, Honeywell, Weyerhaeuser, Blue Apron, ManpowerGroup, Booz Allen, Philips 66, Aon, Johnson Controls

    8:30 a.m. Personal Income

    8:30 a.m. Employment cos index

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Corona-Contagion Crashes Commodity/Stock Markets Worldwide, Bonds & Bullion Bid
    As @GreekFire32 correctly mocked:

    "Of all the fundamental catalysts like sliding economic growth, inflation, earnings, cash flow... the bears had to wait for a virus from humans eating bat soup to get a 1% sell-off "

    A black bat or black cat spoiled the party...

    [​IMG]

    "probably nothing..."

    For a sense of the damage (or perhaps more of the calm we have encountered in the last few months)...

    • Shanghai Comp's worst week in 8 months

    • S&P 500's worst week in 5 months

    • "Most Shorted" stocks had their biggest weekly drop in 4 months

    • France's CAC 40 worst week in almost 4 months

    • VIX's biggest weekly spike in almost 6 months

    • HY Bond Prices worst week in almost 5 months

    • Treasury yields biggest weekly drop in 4 months

    • Yield curve's biggest weekly flattening in 2 months

    • USD's best week in 2 months

    • Yuan's worst week in 4 months

    • Copper's worst week in over 5 years

    • Oil's biggest weekly drop in 8 months

    • Gold's 6th weekly rise in last 7 weeks
    China ended notably weaker this week (China closed on Friday for lunar new year celebration)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Mixed picture in Europe this week with Germany clinging to gains while France and Spain tumbled...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    US Equity majors were all down on the week, unable to hold the hope-filled gains...Nasdaq ended its 6-weekly gain in a row (and AAPL broke its 9 week streak)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Two big buy programs in the last hour did their best to lift stocks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Flu-makers shot higher on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Boeing rescued The Dow from its worst levels after the machines read FAA comments as extremely positive...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Managing to magically lift The Dow back above the crucial 29k level (but couldn't hold it)...

    [​IMG]

    So to clarify - The Dow rebounds on hopes that a plane which is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys, will fly again.

    [​IMG]
    [email protected]


    Will you ever fly in a 737 MAX again?

    25%Yes
    75%No
    4,967 votes•Final results

    63

    2:51 PM - Jan 24, 2020
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    110 people are talking about this



    And the S&P desperately tried to get back to 3300 (but couldn't hold it)...

    [​IMG]

    Where 'peak' gamma is...

    [​IMG]

    "Most Shorted" stocks plunged this week

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Defensive dominated the week's price action, despite every effort to levitate cyclicals...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Dow Earnings expectations plunge...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX touched 16.00 intraday before fading...

    [​IMG]

    The divergence between stocks and bond yields failed to narrow as while stocks fell, bond yields plunged...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Meanwhile, credit markets are getting clubbed like a baby seal...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Overall, an ugly week for credit and equity protection markets...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields plunged their most in 4 months this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y Yields broke to its lowest yield since Oct 10th...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Yield curve flattened dramatically this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar surged to key December resistance, up 3 weeks in a row...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    A big bounce back in crypto today rescued the week but there was red across the board still...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Commodities were wildly mixed this week with PMs bid as copper and crude crashed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI crude futs tumbled to a $53 handle intraday today, lowest in 3 months...

    [​IMG]

    And as black gold plunged, the yellow metal spiked...

    [​IMG]

    This was Copper's worst week since Nov 2014...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, it seems the markets hate Liz Warren and don't think Bernie stands a chance...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And, as a gentle reminder, everyone and their pet (edible) bat is all-in...

    [​IMG]

    Here's to the weekend...
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    February Almanac: Weak Link in Best Six Months
    [​IMG]
    Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.2% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that benchmark.

    A strong February in 2000 boosts NASDAQ and Russell 2000 rankings in election years. Otherwise, February’s performance, compared to other presidential-election-year months, is mediocre at best with no large-cap index ranked better than seventh (DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, Russell 1000 since 1979).
    [​IMG]

    Solid January Starts Not Rare, February Could Be Tepid
    [​IMG]
    Bullish sentiment is running high and why not. A new decade has begun, January has been bucking the recent trend of volatile performance and the market is trading at or near all-time record highs. Big round numbers like 29000, 3300 and 9000 are also emotionally satisfying. Our Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days indicators were both positive and the market is well on its way to completing a historically bullish January Trifecta. A positive January Barometer is all that remains to complete the January Trifecta.

    As of yesterday’s close DJIA was up 2.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 was up 2.79% and NASDAQ stood at 4.44%. Although these gains are above average, they are actually not all that uncommon by the thirteenth trading day of the New Year. Since 1901 (119 years), DJIA has been up 2.3% or more on the thirteenth trading day 33 times before this year. DJIA’s largest gain on the thirteenth trading day was 11.4% in 1976 (+17.9% for the full-year). S&P 500 has equaled or exceeded 2.79% on the thirteenth trading day 26 times since 1930 while NASDAQ has bested 4.44% 15 times since 1971. Depending on index, gains equal to or greater than this year come about approximately once every 3.3 to 3.6 years. 2012 was the last election year where all three indexes were up more on the thirteenth trading day than this year.

    In the following Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. Here it is clear that the market has gotten off to a solid start with well above average gains so far. Throughout 2019, the market tracked its historical patterns quite closely which suggests some mean reversion could occur this February as the month has been historically tepid for DJIA and S&P 500.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Another Look At Election Years

    Last week in our LPL Research blog, we took a closer look at how stocks have performed during an election year. We found that since 1940, the S&P 500 Index hasn’t been lower during an election year when an incumbent president has been up for reelection.

    We’ve had many requests to look more into election years, so we thought we’d take another look at this impactful year.

    The S&P 500’s track record for reelection years has been impressive, but its average path during these years has been quite interesting, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day. In ten reelection years since 1950, the S&P 500 on average has barely budged from February through June, before breaking out in the second half of the year.

    “Stocks actually have traded in a tight range from February through June during election years, with the big rally taking place during the second half of the year,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    [​IMG]

    From a quarterly view, the S&P 500 has historically posted modest returns in the four quarters of an election year, but the benchmark has been higher an impressive 82% of the time in the fourth quarter of all election years. That’s one of the best track records of any quarter in the four-year presidential cycle.

    [​IMG]

    Recession Watch Update

    As the economic expansion caps its first decade, we thought it’d be a good time to check on LPL Research’s leading indicators in our Recession Watch Dashboard.

    As you can see in our latest update and in the LPL Chart of the Day, the overall view hasn’t changed much. We believe we are in the later stages of this economic expansion, but we still see little threat of imminent recession. The current expansion is the longest on record, at 126 months, but the economy has grown at a slow and steady rate. We believe this measured pace, along with supportive fiscal policy, has contributed to this cycle’s continued durability.

    [​IMG]

    In the fourth quarter, the needle moved in different directions for two of our five forecasters:

    We removed the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve from On Watch status as the spread between the 3-month and 10-year yields moved back into positive territory. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields also climbed to an 18-month high following the Federal Reserve rate cuts. Going back to 1955, a yield curve inversion (long-term yields falling below short-term yields) has preceded each of the nine recessions. It’s important to note, however, that parts of the curve flickered between positive and inverted territory several times before the actual recession occurred.

    We added Market Valuations to On Watch status, as the S&P 500 Index trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose near cycle highs. The P/E ratio is now comfortably above our 2020 target of 18.75. With the S&P 500 surpassing the upper end of our year-end fair value target of 3,300, we are watching closely to see if earnings growth is strong enough to justify these elevated valuations. The low interest-rate and inflation environment continue to be strong tailwinds for market valuations.

    “We remain optimistic of continued, albeit possibly slower, economic growth in the United States in the coming year, bolstered by recent progress on the U.S.-China trade deal,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “While we continue to monitor the indicators closely, at the present time, we see only a modest chance of recession starting within the next year.”

    Utilities Go Up, Up, and Away
    Fri, Jan 24, 2020

    News of the coronavirus spreading further in the last 24 hours has sent a risk-off attitude throughout markets. One result of these moves has been a more distinct breakout of treasury yields as the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) has broken out of the downtrend that it has been in since the summer. At its current levels today, it is now at its highest level since October.

    [​IMG]

    TLT is not the only ETF to have benefitted from a more risk-averse sentiment. As of this writing, Utilities (XLU) is the only sector ETF looking to close higher today. XLU's rally hasn't just been confined to today either. With interest rates falling, Utilities (XLU) have gone on an absolute tear recently. Since eclipsing its prior high just below $65 a little over a week ago, XLU has rallied roughly 5%.

    [​IMG]

    Given this massive rally, breadth has been extremely strong. Now at 70.5, the 10-day advance/decline line has become very stretched. In fact, it is very rare to see these levels in the Utilities sector's 10-day A/D line as there has only been one other period since 1990 that it was higher (June 2017) when it reached 72.14.

    [​IMG]

    Clean Energy Outshining
    Fri, Jan 24, 2020

    Looking across the ETF space, there are only a handful with dividend yields above 10%. While most high yielding ETFs are income-focused funds there is currently one outlier: the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL). This ETF focuses on equities associated with coal mining, equipment, and transportation. As investors have favored more sustainable options over fossil fuels, the deterioration in KOL's share price over the past couple of years has elevated the yield to more than 11.5%. In other words, that high yield has come at a cost.

    KOL has already fallen over 8% in 2020 and that is in the context of a 21.25% decline in 2019 and more general weakness of the energy sector. While KOL has majorly lagged the S&P 500, its underperformance is even more dramatic when compared to clean-energy focused ETFs which have gained favor as ESG investing has stepped into the spotlight as we discussed in last week's Bespoke Report. As shown below, the Solar ETF (TAN) was actually one of the top-performing of these in 2019, notching a 66% gain and now adding another 8.21% YTD. Likewise, the SPDR S&P Kensho Clean Power ETF (CNRG) and Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) also rose twice as much as the S&P 500 in 2019. Though CNRG's year to date outperformance versus the S&P 500 is marginal, the general trend has remained in place so far.

    [​IMG]

    KOL has not only been in a downtrend over the past year but over the past week it has broken down further. That comes after a gap down in late December which broke through support that had been in place since August. While KOL has legged lower, clean energy ETFs have gone parabolic.

    Overall, the price changes of these ETFs and their underlying stocks helps to illustrate the general rotation out of fossil fuel focused stocks and into those that are more climate-conscious. Some of this recent strength for CNRG and PBW comes as a result of the strong performance of electric vehicle stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Nio (NIO) which are some of the largest holdings. Similarly, TAN owes some of its gains in recent weeks to the strong performance of its top holdings. While not as large as TSLA's 30% gain in 2020, TAN's top holding of SolarEdge (SEDG) has experienced a similar rally to NIO of around 15% year to date. That is after it rose 167.8% in 2019.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 1.17.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for January 24th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.26.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.27.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 1.27.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.28.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.28.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.29.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.29.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.30.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.30.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.31.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.31.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $AMZN $MSFT $FB $BA $GE $MA $T $V $SBUX $PYPL $MCD $LMT $MMM $DHI $PFE $UTX $KO $UPS $S $NURO $HMST $VZ $HCA $XLNX $ARNC $XOM $CAT $BX $PGR $LRCX $GD $PHM $NVR $PII $SALT $BIIB $NOW $ANTM $NUE $ALK $PLUG $MPC)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning traders and welcome to a new week, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading week ahead! :)
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    so the spx hasn't been red for back-to-back days in 30 trading days in a row so far which happens to tie the longest streak since going back to 1955 :eek:

    friday was red so it looks like we snap that streak today absent some crazy finish at the end to turn us green which doesn't seem too likely at this point :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    another noteworthy streak about to possibly end today is the spx w/o a -1% decline on closing basis, which currently sits at 74 trading days, which is tied for the 3rd longest in the current bull run.

    this one has more of a shot at recapturing if it can end less than -1% by today's close.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well the selloff continues on the virus fears :eek: Those Chinese or tourism related stocks are getting hit once again although I am seeing some Chinese internet stocks stabilizing a little bit today.
     
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  17. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I'm about to dip my toe into DAL with some long April 57.5 Calls...maybe pay for them with some short 52.5 Puts. DAL earnings are expected around 9 April.
     
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  18. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    @stock1234 , Oil down, too. XOM sub-64 is gonna be tempting, although earnings at the end of the week. Same with MRO, earnings later this week, and were it not for that I'd probably already be buying MRO here.
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I got into stocks like DAL and WYNN last week, obviously way too early. Might average down a little bit if the selloff continues :p
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The only oil stock that I have is HES, let's see if the bleeding will stop for oil soon :eek:
     
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